Week 4 “Table of Contests”:

Intro: This is Not the Baby NFL
Page 1: DeSoto Dragons at Festus Tigers
Page 2: North County Raiders at Hillsboro Hawks
Page 3: Seckman Jaguars at Pattonville Pirates
Page 4: Herculaneum Blackcats at St. Vincent Indians
Page 5: Confluence Titans at Crystal City Hornets
Page 6: Veritas Christian Academy Eagles at Grandview Eagles
Page 7: Park Hills Central Rebels at St. Pius Lancers
Page 8: Cuba Wildcats at Jefferson Blue Jays
Page 9: Fox Warriors at Ladue Rams
Page 10: Windsor Owls at Saxony Lutheran Crusaders

Blowout Gulch: Northwest Lions at Mehlville Panthers

The Geek has taken flack for writing Mississippi Magazine in a “college football” voice, for instance when TGG questions whether a head coach’s reign is coming to an end soon. We ask many questions without offering answers, as when The Geek and some boosters persuaded the R-6 School Board to appoint anybody in the world except for one candidate as the new Festus Tigers skipper in 2020.

Our site was called “degrading” for suggesting that 2025 was Brian Jones’ last year helming North County.

But when parts of the region’s media react with hostility to Mississippi Magazine’s “NCAA-Friday” tone, it just shows how most people working in sports can’t see their hands in front of their faces anymore. The Geek’s style treats Friday Night Lights like it’s its own special deal. The common trope of many local analysts? They don’t make NIL contractors out of the kids. They make Baby NFL out of the kids!

Win-loss records signal favorites and underdogs in the NFL, even early in a season. As NFL players like to say, “I have beaten the teams in front of me.” That’s because the league Salary Cap manufactures 32 more-or-less equal rosters of athletes. You can’t apply that standard to any scholastic football, or you’ll wind up distorting the players’ thoughts in really bad ways. 

Did not The Geek say our best echelon of Jeff County teams are finally playing comparable enough schedules, it’s going to be the wins-and-losses that count above all? Yeah, but remember that there aren’t many county-vs-county games anymore, and we can’t count on every county to field 10-plus solid teams! Illuminating common-opponent outcomes will pepper 2026’s special slate by the Mississippi. We aren’t there yet, because Hillsboro and St. Pius X’s campaigns are back-loaded with tougher fall opponents. Seckman and Festus High will get Elevator rides, up and down, in degree-of-difficulty going forward.

There is a band of JeffCo’s pigskin pundits who rate Windsor ahead of Festus in Week 3, every season, because the Owls are often 2-0 while the Tigers are 1-1 or 0-2. FHS whacks Windsor by about 40 points in Week 3. Then they do it again the next year, and Festus defeats Windsor by 40 points. They’ve done it several years in a row. When they try to explain why, they compare Owls’ stats against Tigers’ stats such as they would compare the first two efforts of Green Bay and Chicago. It’s tough to say if such analysis is trying to be 1000% respectful to Friday players, by treating Lutheran South and St. Mary’s as equal-strength opponents in Week 2, or if folks simply mimic the NFL predictions that they watch on TV.

How do you think Windsor’s kids feel about losing to a team they’re ranked ahead of and favored to beat, every single year? Why, the Windsor Owls have suffered upset losses to the Festus Tigers their whole lives! By treating Friday Night Lights like the NFL, presuming that 300 rushing yards against Affton and Jackson are equally impressive stat lines “until standings take shape down the road,” sets some student-athletes up for grim letdowns, while causing others to feel cocky, or confused.

It would be unkind to treat MSHSAA’s Week 4 of 2026 like the Baby NFL, especially around these parts. We’re fielding teams in matchups in which they ought to feel upset if they win only by two touchdowns, such as Northwest versus Mehlville, or the St. Pius X Lancers against a Park Hills Central brand that appears way too ordinary for the Rebels’ high standards. We’re cheering for other schools in nearly impossible scenarios, such as SHS visiting Pattonville, and Herky taking on a red-hot St. Vinny’s. 

Windsor will be said to “bounce back” if the Albino Birds defeat Class 2’s Saxony Lutheran 35-34 in OT, but we’re all looking for more than that from the regrouped Owls this weekend. Hillsboro High can vie for a second straight statement-surge on offense, hoping to score another 50-to-70 points against Compton’s rebuilding North County Raiders. That isn’t quite how you would describe an NFL pregame, no? 

The one wrinkle is that Varsity opponents like Ladue (see November 2018) or Cuba can come unstuck on rival turf compared to how they perform at home, more so than an NFL or SEC brand that has the boon or curse of mega-decibels from a stadium throng, which enhances the hosting team’s edge-rushing against offensive linemen who cannot hear their QB. There is sometimes a greater atmosphere advantage or disadvantage for Friday Night Lights teams home-and-away, like when the Cuba Wildcats must bid farewell to “Bonners Ferry Field,” where the endzones are paved over, to play in a JeffCo venue.

The Geek will carefully lay out the Dirty Dozen’s expectations for Week 4, team by team, so that fans know when a 10-point loss is actually heroic. But we know that more heroes tend to emerge in a home-game. Whose home stand or road trip impacts Friday’s least predictable encounters?

DeSoto Dragons at Festus Tigers

Did we mention that Week 4’s contests will be warm? The heat wave that engulfed August’s tilts is clinging to Missouri in the form of hot, stormy days all this week. This Friday could be even more of a cramp-hazard than the games played in the “desert” atmosphere of three weekends ago, since school officials hesitate to delay a kickoff to 8 PM for the temperature’s sake when there are storms possible. MSHSAA’s meticulous safety rules mean that if there’s lightning after 9 PM, the game is over.

FHS is the natural pick to win a scrum that tests Festus and DeSoto’s depth charts. The visiting Dragons have only two rushers, QB Cannon Kisner and Damian “The Omen” Pogue, who’re averaging four-plus yards on 20-plus rushes this season. Kisner is being used as a spare part on a defense that’s proven porous already. So is the OL Collin Barton, who is watching his brother Caleb snag all the tackles. DeSoto’s edge-rusher Levi Huck has two QB sacks, but there’s no second string pushing him.

Then again, Festus R-6 hasn’t proven to have the deepest or the most cohesive lineup around thus far, and having to substitute a lot of boys in a conference rivalry game could make things worse. Black & Gold’s reassembled line has had only one good quarter of run-blocking against a contending team, September 4’s final frame at St. Mary’s. FHS can’t simply try to run up the gut and take the game away, notwithstanding a bout of hot-weather fatigue for the Dragons that would make that tactic possible in the second 24:00. Kisner is not likely to whiff on 15 out of 21 passing attempts for a second straight scrum, considering that senior Peyton Casey’s fleet-footed wide receiving corps is one of the best things the Dragons have going for them in ‘26. Kisner’s dual-threat could tax an R-6 secondary in which Max Foglesong and Kamden Yates are performing as Iron Men, not specialists.

DeSoto’s best chance at an upset is to let Festus play ball-control against itself with runs between the 20s, then strike quickly with Kisner’s legs and arm whenever the Dragons get their turn. But because DeSoto’s developing defense is still not capable of protecting the end zone when Yates or Quinnten O’Brien goes running with the ball, it could be the opposite, in which Kisner is a demon at midfield, yet the Tigers offense takes advantage of chances to score TDs such as those the Dragons can’t capitalize on. DHS coaches could be pointing to decent yardage-totals as consolation by Saturday. PREDICTION: TIGERS 42, DRAGONS 14

North County Raiders at Hillsboro Hawks

Compton’s brother Will Compton has grown a fan base in six continents on the World Wide Web. You would think Wyatt Compton could find a way to get some North County Raiders stats on the internet. It’s as hard as ever to get a bead on who will do what for the Raiders, although it’s clear that the head coach is pleased to have senior QB Braydee McClure healthy again. No, we do not think that a healthy McClure would have turned two meetings around that the Raiders lost by a zillion points, yet the Raiders’ ability to throw the football and come back against DeSoto last Friday illustrated that Compton’s kept more in his playbook for 2026 than “Rebuilding 101.” Why rebuild, anyway? Noah Lashley is still in the backfield!

If Lashley isn’t ailing with wounds of his own, the senior RB could punish a Hillsboro defense that’s been the only potential weak link on an HHS team for which the offense and special teams are shining. Count another break for the high-powered Hawks, though, that Week 4’s field temperature will be so balmy. 3-0 Hillsboro is scoring TDs with an ensemble of Fleming, Zimmerly, Rice, Ross, Gonzales, and Associates. Comparatively, even the best 1-2 punch North County has to offer is likely to get tired against superior numbers of Hawks playmakers. While Leon Hall’s defense may not be in elite form, North County’s two losses have shown that NCHS isn’t any better without the bean. PREDICTION: HAWKS 56, NCHS 19

Seckman Jaguars at Pattonville Pirates

Lo and behold, Seckman looks like the more balanced team in Friday’s battle of unbeatens in Pattonville. It’s only a question of whether the injured Jaguars can glue things back together in time. If Brody Kube and Cohner Baer are each on the shelf as of Week 4, The Geek will anticipate that either sophomore QB Lucas Ellison or Nick Moss is assuming the reins, because their classmate, Alex Ramos, was taking Junior Varsity snaps when The Geek looked in on Monday evening’s HUDL stream.

Seckman’s playbook is so versatile that the Jags can succeed with runs, short passes, and shifting formations no matter who the QB is. Pattonville’s defense has been 2026’s top trait, unfortunately, but TGG also thinks Nick Weidler’s defensive backfield could pick off more than one Pattonville pass, and set Seckman’s greenhorn QB up in great field position, if the Pirates remain as one-dimensional with the football in Week 4 as they have been.

PHS is averaging fewer than four yards-per-carry, a frighteningly modest number for a 3-0 brand in the Suburban. Junior QB Trevor Beckermann’s throwing has been carrying the Pirates. It’s not good to go up against Coach Nick Baer’s defense when you don’t have a legitimate dual-threat going. Seckman’s defiant attitude in the face of injuries, mixed with a vintage defensive game plan that takes positive yards away from Pattonville’s pedestrian rushers, could manufacture a closer clash than anticipated. PREDICTION: PATTONVILLE 24, JAGUARS 13

Herculaneum Blackcats at St. Vincent Indians

St. Vincent debuted with a wonderful new lineup this summer. Last week featured QB Andrew Schumer’s” barrage of five TD passes against Perryville in a 42-0 whitewash. St. Vincent always asks its QB to toss the egg around, however. The secret sauce to 2026’s Indians is the defense, which has allowed (GULP) one total touchdown in three contests against Class 3 and Class 4 opponents. Herky, which does not seem as comfortable with a backfield-by-committee as it did feeding the graduated Clark Struckhoff last season, has a hard row to plow against the best defense it has come up against so far. But the searing heat in Perryville is a wild card once again. Are the Indians still “Class 1” enough to utilize their star signal-caller as an Iron Man in 90-degree weather? If so, that ensemble cast of HHS’s could be handier than St. Vincent’s new ace by himself. As is often the case, there’s a wide “band” of outcomes possible when Jefferson County’s teams play St. Vinny’s. There just hasn’t been as much variance in how that Indians’ defense is tackling so darned well. PREDICTION: ST. VINCENT 35, BLACKCATS 6

Confluence Titans at Crystal City Hornets

Crystal City and St. Pius X are hosting “Honolulu Homecomings” in the balmy Tri-Cities. While we’re all praying for a perfect storm – in lowercase so that you know it isn’t ironic just this once! – to pass through at about 5 PM and knock the field temperature and the humidity down, the spectacles seem like a ton of fun in any conditions. One can only question the wisdom of Crystal City’s students building a Homecoming _BONFIRE_ again this year. Whew! We really can’t believe these happy Hornets weren’t sweating much.

Week 4 offers Crystal City’s best shot to get a win on the board in midseason. The opposing Confluence Titans are 0-3, falling to the pedestrian Normandy Vikings 49-0 before surrendering nearly 150 combined points in losses to Principia and little Sparta (IL). Crystal’s lineup may be fatter in numbers than the ailing Grandview Eagles’ roster at this moment, giving the Hornets a chance to clock a struggling foe in sizzling heat. But the only thing “sizzling” will be HC Craig Collins’ seat if CCHS fumbles, bumbles, and blunders its way to a seventh decisive loss in as many games. PREDICTION: HORNETS 36, CONFLUENCE 20

Veritas Christian Academy Eagles at Grandview Eagles

Likewise, this is Grandview’s chance to get in the win column. (Mississippi Magazine promises to stop posting our Class 1 clubs right together, like there’s a separate section for them or whatnot, after The Geek makes this point.) Grandview’s got the short end of the stick compared to Bradley’s Farm this Friday, however, because Veritas is a fresh 1-0 squad, without many injuries. 

In last Friday night’s Grandview Eagles postgame, HC Cory Hanger told Live Stream STL that the Birds of Prey are “down to 19 healthy guys.” But heck, 19 healthy guys is more than we thought Grandview might have at its disposal in mid-September, following a summer of seemingly dozens of injury cases at GHS. 

Veritas Christian – kicking and screaming – has uploaded an official roster to MSHSAA.com to go with the 4.7 actual games that the Eagles scheduled this season. There are only about 15 players over 15 y/o toiling for Veritas. You can boast on the visitors for defeating a reform school 55-0, if you like. Grandview could still wrap such a small opponent up with its bandages. PREDICTION: EAGLES 26, VERITAS 22

Park Hills Central Rebels at St. Pius Lancers

The Gridiron Geek’s wishful forecast of the St. Pius Lancers’ Class 3 district bracket has come true. Potosi and Park Hills are the two most dangerous clubs to face, and the former lost to Fredericktown in Week 3, while the CHS Rebels continue to backslide off their peak in the early 2020s. As we hoped for, MSHSAA’s bracketeers thought that Park Hills Central and St. Pius would make for a fine Week 12 encounter, not realizing that the Lancers would leap upward again while the Rebels stayed put. 

Evan Eckrich’s squad should have a merry time defeating the Rebels, who have lost to Potosi, Sikeston, and Ste. Genevieve in the last eight games, as the visitors come off a 56-7 pasting at the hands of the Valle Catholic Warriors. We think it’ll be a fairly competitive first half, because MSHSAA’s referees will “punish” Hill Valley for having won 88-0 last week (they hardly need such an excuse) while the Rebels’ characteristic passion comes to the fore in Quarter 1 as Park Hills tries to stop Eckrich’s attack. That passion could also wear the Rebels out by the third quarter, when the depth that SPX’s coaches so strategically pretended not to have in 2026 rises to the surface, leading to another lopsided win on an early Homecoming. There’s only the question of whether SPX’s defense can pitch a second-straight shutout. PREDICTION: LANCERS 42, CHS 7

Cuba Wildcats at Jefferson Blue Jays

The Wildcats. The Cigars. Bonners Ferry High School. Whatever we decide to call them, the kids from Cuba have bravely fought back from the brink of their Friday Night Lights going dark, emerging from a Forfeit Loss due to low roster numbers in Week 7 of last season to win three of six subsequent games, battling Hermann High in an entertaining Class 2 District playoff before debuting 2-1 in this campaign. We don’t know if Jefferson’s defense can slow down Cuba’s new 30+ PPG average. 

Cuba isn’t nearly as dangerous away from Bonners Ferry Field, though. The CHS Wildcats underplayed expectations on the road in Week 2, which makes sense for a school that has lost six of its last seven away-games, aided less by the Wildcats’ legendarily unruly “SHUT UP, CHUMPS!” student squad.

Playing on a hot evening, Jefferson High can potentially outlast a Cuba lineup that has relied on a 10-up group of seniors performing next to a whole lot of underclassmen. R-7 quarterback Sam Kerley must be patient, and resist the urge to “keep up” with CHS on the scoreboard if the Wildcats get a first-half lead, because Jefferson’s chore is to establish RBs such as Aiden Kentch, while limiting Cuba’s turns with the pigskin, setting things up to win the second half by as many as three touchdowns. Those first-string Cuba linemen who can “Taco-Lay-O” big hits in the opening half could have their hands on their hips, sucking wind, by Quarter 4 if the Blue Jays are disciplined and physical. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 38, CUBA 28

Fox Warriors at Ladue Rams

Ladue is another one that protects home turf better than it travels. The Rams gave up more points versus upstart Vianney on the road in Week 2 than they allowed to Country Day in a Week 1 contest at Ladue. Last season, the LHS Rams struggled to defeat Lindbergh’s sorry 3-7 squad on the road. When the postseason gave Ladue a chance to host Country Day, the Rams rose up and walloped MICDS. Fox has good memories of Warson Road, however, having claimed a huge upset over Ladue on its Senior Night in 2025. With the Warriors touting a better surprise downfield passing attack behind senior QB Jude Pribish, there just may be a shot for Fox to knock the host Rams off balance, and make another upset bid. PREDICTION: LADUE 39, WARRIORS 21

Correction: The Gridiron Geek deeply apologizes to Fox High School for reversing the Fox-Ladue outcome from last season in an earlier Week 4 edition. Arnold, to its credit, has a chance to score consecutive wins over the powerful LHS Rams this weekend.

Windsor Owls at Saxony Lutheran Crusaders

Have you heard that the heavy-metal stars of the 1980s “worshipped the devil” instead of being good Christians? The Saxony Lutheran Crusaders – presuming that they’re retro rock and roll fans – would certainly beg to differ! 

We all know how this goes – Windsor gets back on “Elevator UP,” while improving to 3-1 against a Small School campus. Two things can make the Crusaders seem at least a little scary this Friday – the fact that Saxony Lutheran is such a mystery team without recent MSHSAA TV footage, added to the unmistakable improvement of Week 4’s hosts on the second weekend of the season, when they went from having won an ugly 18-6 outcome versus 0-3 New Madrid County to falling 54-40 in a shootout with 3-0 Portageville and its Class 1 powerhouse. Like the Hillsboro Hawks, the Windsor Owls are fortunate to perform on such a draining night against a program with fewer weapons, the favorite’s ultimate guardrail against blowing a substantial lead in the second 24:00.

If Saxony Lutheran seems lively relative to the usual Class 2 team playing in a sauna, it might be because Madison (IL) backed out of a contest in Week 3 and left the Crusaders without any concert game to play, but don’t quote The Gridiron Geek on that one. PREDICTION: ALBINO BIRDS 44, HEADBANGER’S BALL 16

P.S. Saxony Lutheran’s campus is located in Jackson. Its football program is just getting started. Surely, there are many academy worthy student-athletes at Jackson High who can’t even crack the second string in football – not because they aren’t good enough to start and perform well for a normal team, but because they are not Class-6-elite enough to play Fridays at JHS. Junior High parents will notice the alternative, a place where their kids can dress and play, right next door. We see the plan, Crusaders, we see the plan.

Blowout Gulch: Northwest Lions at Mehlville Panthers

It’s a risk to give a road team The Geek’s “Blowout Gulch” vote-of-confidence this week, especially after the site’s new category of predictions fell well off the mark in Weeks 1 and 2. It’s not that The Geek thinks Northwest has any chance of losing to one of the Suburban League’s weakest of weak sisters. Mehlville has no chance at a winning season, but the Panthers have clearly rearranged their athletes to try to produce a few more TDs and make fans happier this year. You can’t go back to 2025’s final five weekends, and all of the disappointment it dealt a Varsity roster, to never be able to score.

If we call for “Northwest 49, Mehlville 0,” the Panthers could foil that by keeping up the impressive scoring of late summer, in which MHS has averaged over 17 PPG against tough opposition in Fox, St. Pius, and Jennings. Northwest’s QB Cohenn Stark is good enough to gobble 500 run + pass yards and chomp a cupcake 70-28. But if we call for a “70-28” pasting, Northwest’s fine defense could clown that with a shutout. Nobody has bore down on stopping the Panthers yet, but they ought to if the games get tighter.

Mehlville has allowed well over 1000 rushing yards so far, without having gone up against any “Cannon Kisner”s or “Jett Black”s who inflate their team’s rushing totals with Fridays of 200 yards on 10 carries. Attacking that vulnerable midriff of Mehlville’s defense is the key for Northwest to command the entire game, and keep a Clean Sheet on the board, as FIFA’s reporters say. Cedar Hill can allow its running backs, Will Murphy and Kaleb Belcher, a confidence-game to get back on track for this season, saving Stark from having to plunge up the middle too often before going out to star at linebacker. If MHS manufactures more trash-time points, spectators can still chalk it up as a genuine shut-down effort from NHS. PREDICTION: LIONS 49, MEHLVILLE 7

Photo Credit: Ryan Dix via Gateway Sports Hub