MSHSAA Class 4 Quarterfinal: Hillsboro Hawks at St. Mary’s Dragons (Saturday Nov. 19)
It takes a whole lot to cause The Geek to change a prediction. Especially when it’s a long-term prediction, made on a game-date everyone can see coming up the pike. For a pundit, changing a pick can put you in the shoes of that NFL coach who called time-out just as an opponent’s potential winning field-goal try goes into the air. If the first kick is “good,” and the live-fire kick to follow misses the uprights, then the skipper becomes a hero. If the dead-ball FG attempt goes wide and the NEXT kick goes through for a win? In that case, the coach ought to have his best Tony LaRussa-style “Erm, you know what, I’d like to ask you to leave” glare ready to go, because he’s going to need it as soon as the postgame reporters come in.
Our blog team hasn’t changed too many Friday or Saturday forecasts, but we’ve adjusted enough W/L/D predictions in major worldwide events to know that “learn from your mistakes” is actually very incomplete advice. You can learn from your success too. Much like Billy Walters’ successful mission to demolish Sin City with the New Orleans Saints, prior to Super Bowl LIV all instincts that The Geek had pointed to San Francisco beating Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. San Francisco’s run to the Super Bowl that season had proven Vince Lombardi correct – more than Tim Tebow’s introduction of plus-one rushing on Sundays or Lamar Jackson’s MVP award won on Timmy’s shoulders – that even in the National Football League, football is a game of running. ESPN’s constant cry from 10 years ago that “IT’S A PASSING LEAGUE, SKIP!” had long since been Russia-Gated (those who prefer TV sitcoms to CNN would say “ret-conned”) into “I KNEW LAMAR JACKSON WAS GREAT ALL ALONG, ADAM,” and by 2019-20, the NFL media was ready to slather praise on the 49ers even after San Francisco rushed 50 times and threw 6 complete passes in the NFC Championship Game. Super Bowl favorite Kansas City had a nice finesse club, but San Francisco’s bruisers were ready to win yet another one for Bill Walsh, Ronnie Lott…and Lombardi. TGG’s prediction was all-too-giddy to go along with the “sexy” pick on a San Francisco victory (“The NFL is a RUNNING LEAGUE, SKIP!”) until waking-up from a fever dream on Tuesday, and realizing that Mahomes would out-pass and out-rush San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo all over the field, and that at some point in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs’ offense was going to get revved-up like a Formula One car – vroom vroom – and that there would be nothing Kyle Shanahan’s team could do about it.
THAT change-of-heart turned into a success worth learning from. How did the 4th quarter of Super Bowl LIV go for Missouri’s team? Vroom, vroom.
There is a widely-held opinion that Hillsboro’s marvelous 2022 team will be shocked by St. Mary’s speed, size, and fundamentals in Week 13’s quarterfinal clash this Saturday. The St. Mary’s Dragons are more than just the defending Show-Me Bowl champions from Class 3 – the ’21 Varsity Dragons romped through Class 3 without breaking a sweat, much like Jackson had breezed to a COVID-era C5 trophy this year before. Only teams from Illinois and Kentucky have conquered the Dragons in 2022. Speaking out-of-context, Mississippi Magazine has kept a “floating point spread” of 7+ points in favor of St. Mary’s over HHS. Hillsboro is in our purview and officially adopted as our “home team” as of Week 13, being the only Jefferson County squad to make it this far in November. On the flip side, you’ve got to face facts.
By the same token, though, it would be crazy to ignore Hillsboro’s phenomenal late-season form at a time when public-school programs are supposed to bow-out. St. Mary’s has been treading-in-place – Hillsboro has been making one statement after another on Friday nights. Leon Hall ran-up a Mercy-Rule advantage over a cross-town rival in Week 12 as the Dragons were still trying to get out of the starting blocks vs Summit. Previously, the HHS Hawks blew-apart yet another tough, familiar rival in Week 11. That’s just a few of several reasons why The Geek is changing this weekend’s prediction to that of a toss-up game.
Private schools that hand-pick their rosters have dominated MSHSAA pigskin for a long time. No doubt about that. But we can’t let that dominance produce a double-standard, either. St. Mary’s would be patted on the back and told to go win another Show-Me Bowl if the Dragons’ top string had just scored 12 touchdowns on 12 possessions against Festus and Farmington. Valle University had something a lot like a “best team ever” in 2022 and no-one criticized the Warriors for beating Jefferson County teams by scores like 63-38 and 48-20. HHS has defeated several District champions and finalists including Cape Central, Why are the 10-win Hillsboro Hawks not getting treated for white-washing a schedule of giants, like St. Mary’s did in its triumphant Class 3 campaign? Forget whether opponents were “public” or “private” for a moment. Cape Girardeau vs Poplar Bluff was considered a marquee Class 5 District Final, and Leon Hall destroyed both teams easily. Austin Romaine’s defense is performing at a Class 6 state-playoff level.
Yes, Cardinal Ritter defeated Hillsboro in a “rehearsal” match that paired Bill Sucharski’s team against a private-school powerhouse in Week 8. But the Lions’ stat line from the contest is exceptionally thin – Hillsboro held Cardinal Ritter to about 250 yards, and Blue & White ball-control led to the Lions snapping the football less than 40 times on offense. It doesn’t matter that HHS lost the game, since a fluky win wouldn’t have done so much to prove that the Hawks are ready for prime-time on all 3 units. St. Mary’s allowed 5 touchdowns and nearly 500 yards of offense from recent District winner SLUH and recent Show-Me Bowl champion Lutheran St. Charles in 2022. Cardinal Ritter iced both teams by a score of 77-0.
In fact, the “disappointing” Cardinal Ritter game showed how HHS can meet the virtues of a private-school Godzilla without suffering the problems that also tend to strike an artificial All-Star team. Whether the Lutheran North Barnstormin’ All-Stars took the field with their so-called “real” lineup vs victorious SCW in Week 12 or not, TGG promises that parents of D1 prospects on the Crusaders’ roster have been blowing-up coaches’ phones for months. Singleness-of-purpose is still the #1 characteristic of a championship team. St. Mary’s and Cardinal Ritter want to win more Show-Me Bowl tournaments, but they have to do it while distributing the ball to student-athletes as promised prior to the season, while HHS’s experimental and wildly-successful playbook this autumn is designed with only the goal of WINNING in mind.
Not that the Hawks’ skill players won’t have a party if Hillsboro is WINNING at St. Mary’s on Saturday. We did see a single private-school team slow down the Hawks’ tremendous rushing in Week 8, but it’s also obvious that no HHS team ever (sorry, Coach Johanningmeier) has had as many weapons as in ’22. Preston Brown’s newfangled attack can be called many things, but even the Webb City Cardinals can’t maneuver the ball downfield with as many dangerous looks and ball-carriers as the ’22 Hawks. The most crucial sequence of last Friday’s championship tilt at Leon Hall came when an improved FHS defense attempted to finally make its stand in the 2nd quarter. Brown moved around the pocket like a veteran, completing perfect passes to WRs and A-backs in stride. What’s most impressive is that Jaxin Patterson and other players who’ve been developing since early childhood in the leather whoopin’ “run, run, run” Hillsboro style are catching-and-running with Brown’s passes like the Houston Cougars. With the Hawks’ long-sought new passing option on late down-and-distance, St. Mary’s can’t just focus on the Veer.
Hillsboro’s defense cannot get tired. That’s the one factor that could crush all of the optimism for Saturday. HHS plays Iron Man pigskin to an extent that can frustrate and out-last a manufactured lineup like the Dragons, but only if Romaine, Alex Medina, and others can pick their shots at QB David Leonard. Sucharski’s staff doesn’t want to see a repeat of the Poplar Bluff game from 2017, in which Hillsboro’s improved (but still blue-collar) ‘D had to wear itself out trying to end long, exhausting PBHS drives. St. Mary’s will use every change-of-possession and kick-return opportunity to try to blow the quarterfinal game open, and get HHS running without the ball…when you don’t want the game to be just about running. Romaine and Jaxin Patterson’s veteran moxie will be counted on as St. Mary’s speed turns what would normally be 50-yard TDs into 15-yard gains – Jax fumbling on a faster-than-usual tackle could be what Blackmagic the hosts need to produce back-to-back drives and get Hillsboro’s tacklers grasping.
But the Hawks could also wear-out St. Mary’s a lot like Seckman wore-down SLUH in Week 10, and what’s more, Hillsboro isn’t likely to be at a disadvantage on special teams either. That’s pretty nuts, considering that St. Mary’s special teams units are full of Division 3 and NJCAA prospects (formerly known as “Division 1 prospects”) who didn’t get handed the egg as often as the Dragons’ star RB Jamal Roberts throughout their Varsity careers. But a great linebacking corps is magnificent to have when you’re covering kick returns, and Hillsboro kicker Nick Marchetti is quietly achieving the best kick-off season that HHS has ever had (the “best-ever”s just keep coming) and will make the Dragons plod on a long trek if not kicking into the wind.
Sucharski passed-up a short field-goal chance in Week 12, giving Brown another successful shot at the Festus end zone. Hillsboro coaches always do things like that, but we can blame the blustery weather last weekend for keeping a talented PK on the bench. Saturday will be windy too, and Sucharski may be so thrilled with Leonard’s passes blowing around that he writes FG attempts out of the game plan. But keep an eye on the wind’s direction – straight downwind, Marchetti could win the Q-Final with a 50-yard boot.
Lastly, the Hillsboro Hawks are in a better psychological space to play loose, carefree football on Saturday, without the pressure that might have hurt the Leon Hall kids under different Week 12 circumstances. HHS’s Class of 2023, like the Festus Tigers’ Class of 2020, was in danger of becoming a “bridesmaid” that never earned its seminal region-championship. But the stubbornness of MSHSAA in pairing a bunch of tough public-school teams together in C4D1 has paid off with a minor miracle, as there was no Valle University or Cardinal Ritter (or Cole Rickermann) in the bracket, no division-killers or exhausting street fights that stood in the Varsity Hawks’ way over the past few weeks of celebrations. HHS arrives like a night-letter in the Class 4 playoffs as a 90% healthy unit with as much firepower as the top-ranked brands in any class.
St. Mary’s could very well defeat Hillsboro High in the Class 4 state quarterfinals. But looking at Hillsboro as another Show-Me Bowl contender instead of a “public school underdog,” this Friday Night Lights reporter is starting to think it’ll be the Dragons, not the dynamic ’22 Hawks, to be stunned by speed and fundamentals in the opening half, and who will then be asked to rally for a comeback in Mr. Roberts’ neighborhood. PREDICTION: HAWKS 28, ST. MARY’S 24