Farmington Black Knights at Hillsboro Hawks
The Geek may seem to be breaking the usual rule that a week’s “most important” game goes on top of the Friday Night Predictions. Not to be flippant – of course Week 11’s semifinal is of utmost importance to citizens of Hillsboro and Farmington. But in practicality, a season’s big games are those anticipated to be close calls. Otherwise, the Buffalo Bills would be “flexed” into SNF for 10 straight weeks. Hopefully, Blue & White padawans knew that last week’s prediction scroll was predominantly a “Week 10” exercise. The Hawks have performed so well in 2022 that Leon Hall richly deserved a “Fan Friday” out from under the microscope.
That same “microscope” is a reason to pay attention to KREI tonight, even as we know in advance that it would take a series of blunders, bloopers, and bananas-episodes for Farmington to vanquish Hillsboro in 2022. Week 9’s easy victory over Poplar Bluff showed just how far HHS has come this autumn relative to other seasons – even the 2017 team lost to PBHS in Week 9 before winning a District championship. Farmington hasn’t been properly blown-out by anyone except Jackson and powerful Park Hills Central this year, but the Black Knights are still laboring at 4-6, and the ’22 Hillsboro Hawks are in another stratosphere.
Pressure of a new variety comes with that territory, though. HHS will be expected to win by at least 30-40 points to keep “pace” with the other contenders who’ve polished-off tonight’s guest. If a blow-out doesn’t occur, Hillsboro High will get its liberal dose of bulletin-board content after all, when reporters do the expected and wonder in print if the Hawks are having yet another downtown in November.
The other reason Hillsboro leads-off this week is simple – we’re going for a 5-0 Semifinal Friday and you gotta lead with your best candidate. It took Mississippi Magazine a few days of mourning for Jefferson, Crystal City, and 5 other local eliminated teams before putting 2 + 2 together, but even in the wake of a losing win-loss record in the District Quarterfinals, it turns out county representatives will go into the next round with fighting chances in every kickoff. It’s hard to forecast who’s playing the toughest team in a semifinal bout – NCHS and Duchesne, for instance, might have a hell of a tussle if that match-up were to take place. But absolutely none of Jeff County’s schools are “walking the plank” in Week 11.
TGG suspects that the Hawks-Knights scrum will become a rout right quickly, with the impressive “44-10” or “39-12” lead for Hillsboro serving as a sort of background reminder of #1’s skills as lesser-ranked local teams battle in tight 4th quarters. No, that’s not the consensus of “Jim Powers”-type MSHSAA pundits. But there are clues that the Blue & White isn’t destined for a rehash of 2020 and 2021.
Bill Sucharski’s staff has been criticized for whipping kids too hard in practices, leading to potential burn-out and accumulated bruises at the worst time. (2021’s swing of 70+ points in the pair of NCHS vs HHS outcomes had to be explained somehow, since there’s no level of pigskin on which that’s a usual deal.) But it’s actually a good thing to hold very tough practices when your lineup is crushing opponents by Turbo Clock scores. That’s the way Park Hills Central and Valle University have maintained focus when schedules prove easy, and athletes on prohibitively good teams are otherwise subject to malaise as they sit-out the final 24:00 of consecutive games, followed by 48 hours of rest and and lazy practices. Hillsboro’s game-days have been relaxing enough to make-up for any overzealous coaching on Tuesday afternoon. Remember that Leon Hall was taxed by a grudge-rematch against Festus that wore the Hawks down at this time last year, but the Farmington bout about to kick-off isn’t likely to become such a costly win.
It’s like when Herculaneum tried to run a Wildcat offense against Crystal City a fortnight ago. Farmington’s old-school Flexbone attack needs at least a stalemate on the LOS to work well, and Austin Romaine’s linebacking corps is too fearsome to allow much parity in the trenches against a 4-win team. It’s probable that Hillsboro’s newfangled attack will have scored 2 or 3 times before Farmington manages to produce a sustained drive. PREDICTION: HAWKS 52, FARMINGTON 7
Festus Tigers at North County Raiders
Midmeadow Lane’s formula for beating the host North County Raiders is spelled out in this week’s District Quarterfinals recap, though such a formula rarely works when the vinegar of poor tackling-and-pursuit is added into the mix. Festus, encouragingly, did play some solid defense against Jobe Smith and the Buccaneers when the sides met in Mississippi play this September.
TGG’s logic isn’t that Festus is about to snap into classic form on defense following a flaky campaign, as was the case last November when the boys slowed Hillsboro’s momentum to a crawl in defeat. Instead, if the Tigers can simply match their defensive performance from Week 6 tonight, then an offense which has grown in spades since then should probably be able to score 5-or-more times and advance to Week 12. NCHS relied on unforced opposing errors to stop R-6 (or wait for R-6 to stop itself) on a majority of defensive turns last time, as did a number of FHS’s mid-season foes. PREDICTION: TIGERS 31, NORTH COUNTY 27
St. Pius Lancers at Duchesne Pioneers
Coach Oliver’s wild – and successful – game plan for QB James “The Constitution” Smith last weekend showed that SPX is gearing up for a wide-open moon shot against Duchesne…not a careful plod into oblivion such as the regular season’s defeat against St. Vincent. But if Friday’s high-octane Duchesne Pioneers execute without turnovers and advance into an easy District Championship Game against Louisiana or Brentwood, fans of St. Pius and Crystal City pigskin alike can take solace in the new “North Dakota State” of Class 1 getting promoted in 2023, complaints coming from St. Charles County instead of Fargo in this case. PREDICTION: DUCHESNE 44, LANCERS 17
Seckman Jaguars at Marquette Mustangs
The Gridiron Geek doesn’t know enough about 9-1 Marquette to make an in-depth prediction on tonight’s large-school rumble in the Gateway City. But there’s clearly no hope for the Mustangs to shut down the top rusher in Class 6, meaning that Imperial’s survival will once again hinge on the SHS defense, as Marquette tries to break 40 (or 50) and stay ahead. PREDICTION: MARQUETTE 42, JAGUARS 36
Herculaneum Blackcats at University City Lions
Herky has been going through a bad dream for the last 5 weeks, watching as the Blackcat team everyone waited years for began to lose its edge, and eventually falter against younger and thinner squads as the leaves turned. But there’s yet an opportunity to wake up, take a deep breath, and put a key winning performance together vs a team that’s only got about 50% of what rival CCHS had in Wk 9.
Saturday semifinal host University City has a lively offense to lean on. QB Mekhai Gover had an excellent night in U-City’s 61-26 quarterfinal win last Friday, and Christian Carter is the key man at tailback with 10 touchdowns on the year.
University City’s victory, however, came against 0-10 Bishop DuBourg, a patsy that didn’t fare nearly as well against Herky’s quarterfinal victim Bayless in October. It wasn’t the only time the Varsity Lions have been porous on defense this season, and yet you’ve got to think HHS quarterback Jackson Dearing’s rabbit ears are tuned-into Bishop DuBourg’s success on offense from Week 10, namely Jack Masters’ 400-yard game and 3 TD passes. Masters had never boasted an aerial performance quite like that before, considering it was in a hard-fought playoff game in which the favored Lions were actually trying. Even with the generous amount of garbage-time that came about during DuBourg’s 0-10 campaign, the Cavaliers scored only a few token TDs in lopsided losses to teams like Bayless, Affton, DeSoto, and Father Tolton. Something U-City is getting wrong in the defensive backfield – or perhaps just an offense-driven institutional focus which the Lions happen to have – is leaving fast, average, and slow WRs alike wide-open.
Herky can block harder and run faster than a bunch of Fathers and Bishops. (Bishops only move caddy-corner.) But as vulnerable as University City’s defense may be, the Lions’ ability to score against an HHS team that’s ailing in the trenches means that Week 11’s high-scoring tilt will come down to turnovers, penalties, and clutch drives in the final frame. Dearing can’t get greedy and look for Lucas Bahr down the field on a fly-pattern when a check-down option like Mike Maloney can run for 18 yards on a simple dump-off instead. In fact, if there’s a game in which Herculaneum SHOULD put Bahr or Maloney in a Double-Wing formation and bludgeon an inferior DL, it’s this one. Herky rushed for about 700 yards on Roosevelt in last year’s Q-Finals, and U-City’s got a comparable U-nit.
Oh, and no, of course Herky’s scrum isn’t the “least important” battle of Week 11. In fact, as opposed to a “throwaway” final preview, Mississippi Magazine readers can consider Herky’s semifinal the secret main event of this weekend. “Hulk Hogan” and “John Cena” – aka Hillsboro and Seckman – do belong in the main event often. But there’s got to be room for “Orange Cassidy” in the main event once in a while too, especially when other Cruiserweights are ailing. Herculaneum didn’t expect to be flag-bearing for a Tri-City small-schools division that’s won close to 30 games in 2022. However, given that Jefferson, Crystal City, and (probably) St. Pius X will miss-out on Week 12, the Varsity Blackcats have suddenly found themselves virtually alone representing the I-55 as a potential District Final bid, or at least lonely alongside St. Vincent if the Indians beat 7-2 Charleston this weekend.
Jefferson’s rally came too late, Crystal City’s came too early, and the Hill Valley kids could have a 3-quarter rally race and still lose to Duchesne in Quarter 4. But there’s still a chance for a small-campus statement on behalf of R-4, R-5, R-7, and R-You-Serious if the Felines somehow shake-off the injuries, beat U-City in a shoot-out, and then eye-poke Cardinal Ritter once or twice before calling it a campaign.
Herculaneum is blessed with the the right opponent – and the right senior quarterback – to potentially make it happen in the Gateway City. PREDICTION: BLACKCATS 36, UNIVERSITY CITY 35