Festus Tigers at Hillsboro Hawks
We’ve touched on Mississippi Magazine’s ongoing “Distance Paradox” in which the blog gets a bull’s eye with predictions on teams from far away, while being flummoxed by Tri-City outcomes produced by programs as familiar as the fall. Games played at Hillsboro aren’t technically in the “Tri-Cities,” but there’s no better example of the phenomenon than The Geek’s clumsy tries at forecasting each date in the Hawks-Tigers rivalry.
TGG whiffed on Hillsboro’s wins in 2018 and 2019, failed to see Festus High’s win coming in 2020, then predicted a District “rematch” between the sides that never came to pass. In 2021, The Geek was so enamored by each school’s offense that Mississippi Magazine said HHS and FHS could combine for 100 points in Week 11’s District semifinal. Right on cue, a grudging defensive battle ensued, which Hillsboro won 13-7.
But if there’s a simple “sure thing” metric in High School predictions, it’s timing. MSHSAA experts could be expecting another “linebacker duel” led by elite units on both sidelines at Leon Hall, featuring Carter Cupp and Austin Romaine in the crucial MLB/ILB spots. Yet the Hillsboro defense of ’22 has developed at 10x the rate of the Tigers to this point in the season, something it’s hard to make-up for on rivalry-game emotions alone. Festus has gotten some penetration against opposing run plays this year, but that’s where the good part ends for a D that’s been burned, baked, and broken against 2 out of 2 solid opponents. Fort Zumwalt West suits-up at least as many fast play-makers as the St. Genevieve Dragons, but the 30-point-victor Hillsboro Hawks might have lost 66-65 to the FZW Jaguars by politely stepping aside for WRs as Festus did in its Week 1 defeat. It’s hard to say whether HHS would have beaten Valle University in Week 2, but TGG assures fair readers that Jaxin Patterson of Hillsboro would have tackled a few of Valle U.’s tailbacks within 10 to 20 yards of the original LOS, as opposed to the Varsity Tigers’ virtually non-existent open field tackling against talented RBs in 2022.
A.J. Ofodile has a “Hillsboro hex” of his own that will always keep Highway A championship games close, even when Festus isn’t comparable to HHS on the depth chart. Ofodile’s offense is so adept at scoring long-strike TDs in any situation that Hillsboro’s patented Red Zone defense is often useless to impact the scoring drive. In effect, Coach O’s wild playbook takes Leon Hall’s #1 defensive strength away when the rivals meet.
But because of that very playbook, the still-developing Festus Tigers rely on complex execution-from-scrimmage to distribute the ball and score points. Tonight’s task at hand will be much simpler from Hillsboro’s point-of-view. Patterson and Romaine must merely cradle the egg, break through a burly R-6 defensive line occasionally, and trust that the “star-studded” Festus LB corps hasn’t remembered how to play ball like it can. PREDICTION: HAWKS 38, TIGERS 24
Herculaneum Blackcats at St. Pius Lancers
Oh, will the Hill Valley legions be roaring tonight! What is typically a fun rivalry battle that ends with St. Pius X winning a predictable 2nd half could actually be the foremost kickoff in the “I-55 Round Robin Championship Series” of 6-to-10 games this autumn.
The Geek likes how SPX responded to an August loss by playing its best pigskin against rival Jefferson in Week 4, but St. Pius hasn’t shown anything like the year-to-year improvement of Herculaneum against St. Vincent.
Herky’s passing game becoming a “cash-cat” makes the Lancers vs Blackcats scrum intriguing. But the real key to the Week 5 contest may be that Herculaneum’s defense has jumped over hill-and-dale to manufacture the most surprisingly solid unit in Jefferson County, south (or north) of Crystal City’s frosh and sophomore edge rushers, anyway. Look for the visiting QB with more experience and accuracy to avoid interceptions and fumbles, while SPX turns the egg over to a Herky defense unlike any the Lancers have faced. PREDICTION: BLACKCATS 30, LANCERS 23
Seckman Jaguars at Fox Warriors
With no idea whether Seckman coach Nick Baer will follow the “Lou Holtz” plan suggested in this week’s Jefferson County Power Poll, TGG is compelled to “split the difference” between Fox hanging tight and Seckman running away with another substantial W. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 42, WARRIORS 21
Crystal City Hornets at Gateway STEM Jaguars
There’s no doubt the Gateway Jaguars are the best team Crystal City has faced on the young season. Gateway Tech began by scoring 26 points in a Week 1 triumph over Clayton, then scored even more in a lively follow-up against victorious Riverview Gardens. (Riverview Gardens is the first #8 District seed to ever defeat a #1 seed in the modern playoff system, and so the 1-3 Rams should not be underestimated in almost any circumstance.) Gateway polished-off a couple of slightly-smaller schools in blow-outs to arrive at 3-1 against CCHS tonight.
But we’ve got a hunch that the Hornets can raise hell in this contest, and not just because Gateway’s upperclass numbers aren’t what one likes to see on a Class 4 roster. The Jaguar offense has been making mental errors, and was not explosive enough to produce a Turbo Clock against overwhelmed foes Roosevelt or Soldan in Weeks 3 and 4, which means that tonight’s twilight-hosts have the disadvantage of having played the starting-22 for 16 quarters in a row while Crystal City’s standouts rested late in games, AND the negatives that go along with taking-on faster players after coasting for 2 weeks against slow cogs from cellar programs. If Gateway Tech can’t pull away from weaker opponents with easy drives downfield, there’s no way that Crystal City’s offense won’t get multiple chances to score TDs in every quarter. As has been a running theme with CCHS for weeks, HC Dan Fox must stay patient and remember that succeeding on just 1/3 of the Hornets’ possessions – with no turnovers or long-shot 4th down fails in between – could be enough to produce a David-over-Goliath victory versus a team that’s not geared up to score 5+ times on swift defenders. PREDICTION: GATEWAY STEM 22, HORNETS 20
Marquette Mustangs at Northwest Lions
Mississippi Magazine has never favored obsessions with 1 player (for coaches, fans, or bloggers), but we’ll be sure to report a weekly “Chase Viehland tracker” as the rehabbing RB is (hopefully) worked back into the attack in Cedar Hill. PREDICTION: MARQUETTE 44, LIONS 10
Windsor Owls at DeSoto Dragons
If Dan Fox can win a game downtown by being patient, WHS coach Jeff Funston can move to 3-2 at Joachim Junction by being exceptionally patient. Patricia-the-Cat-stalking-a-lizard patient. Plastic-worm-fishing-in-a-2-foot-deep-hole patient.
Seriously, the Albino Birds should punt on 3rd down if it’s what it takes to produce a “safe” winning hand. DeSoto’s senior-studded front-7 is just about all the Dragons have going for them. Windsor will bang and crash into the LOS for short gains and get “hurried” on consecutive QB drop-backs by a desperate defense that knows tonight’s game could be DeSoto’s best chance to get to 2 season-victories. It won’t matter so long as DHS consistently has 60+ yards to go, because the hosts’ blocking effort just isn’t solid enough to convert 5-plus 1st downs in a row and score in the Red Zone. Tonight’s winner in DeSoto will be the team that snags interceptions, recovers fumbles, and comes up with ways to manufacture plus-field position on special-teams downs. Or, should both teams start from the 30-yard-line consistently in a turnover-free game, then let’s just say Funston should duck and avoid cameras when the 4th quarter ends, or else frown and refuse to cheer Windsor’s likely “baseball runs” advantage.
Because even if you win, you don’t want to be this guy:
PREDICTION: ALBINO BIRDS 17, DRAGONS 8
Perryville Pirates at Grandview Eagles
The Birds of Prey are yet another team destined to win a low-scoring battle in Week 5, though another wild “GHS vs Bayless” finish could produce a dread outcome for Friday’s favorites. PREDICTION: EAGLES 21, PERRYVILLE 7
Jefferson Blue Jays at Bayless Bronchos
If RB Mark Patton is really ailing, then the Broncho is gone-cho as an I-55 spoiler for now. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 45, BAYLESS 13