#1 – Hillsboro Hawks
The Gridiron Geek is sure that the alumni from Leon Hall enjoyed last season’s 49-0 romp over the North County Raiders more than last Friday night’s tense 3rd quarter with the Buccaneers. But the coaches at HHS are probably thrilled not to be faced with the “mirage” of a win that was easier than it ought to have been. 2021 was a real warning about the danger of overconfidence due to too much early-season momentum.
Mississippi Magazine’s only gripe about Hillsboro’s 4-0 start is likely nill, null, and void, so long as HC Bill Sucharski can be counted as a good publicity man and politician. How does a blogger come to hope that a coach is being PR-friendly instead of fully honest? Well, in Sucharski’s post-Week 3 interview with Regional Radio, the Blue & White skipper responded to a query about HHS Iron Man players (2-way starters) potentially growing tired over a 10+ game span by pointing-out the number of scenarios in which Hillsboro is rotating RBs and WRs. Sucharski answered candidly for 2 or more minutes, but focused exclusively on the team’s offensive and defensive backfield, and on the potential fatigue level of his wide receivers.
Sucharski can limit Jaxin Patterson and Austin Romaine’s minutes all that he wants. Focusing on that – as opposed to the team’s effort in the trenches – would still amount to “barking up the wrong tree.” The issue isn’t that coaches have set-out to “milk” the Hawks’ backfield for all they can in the regular season. (Hillsboro, in TGG’s opinion, has done a great job of managing Jaxin Patterson’s touches for 4 years running, with exception of a Mississippi title game against DeSoto in 2019 before which the frosh wunderkind probably begged coaches for enough carries to whip the Dragons all by himself.) But when an offensive-defensive line on an Iron Man team becomes overworked and hampered by injury, HHS play-callers must naturally turn to players like Jax, Romaine, and Payton Brown even more to compensate and gain yards. Then the skill players begin to get exhausted and banged-up, putting more pressure on the senior blockers and tacklers, who then get beaten-up more. That’s the vicious cycle that struck Leon Hall just as the playoffs were starting last autumn.
FHS coach A.J. Ofodile’s scouting report on Hillsboro mentioned that the Hawks have turned to juniors and sophomores in spots along the line. That’s good news for an HHS team that’s getting ready to graduate a seminal Class of 2023. But it’s also a clue that there are very experienced, very decorated senior OL and DL specialists on the roster who aren’t getting as many top-string minutes as they might have hoped for. The Geek’s advice would be for Sucharski to set his scientific touch-charts aside for a moment and find a way to let the backup upperclassmen take offensive and defensive line rotation-duty more often than HHS has previously considered, even if it that means the Hawks out-score the rest of their conference opponents by merely 50 combined points instead of 100 combined points. Hillsboro can afford to “hide” a few marginal DL athletes on defense by letting each player “cover” a single opposing blocker while the team’s elite LB corps “scrapes” behind it. Circumstances change, and injuries diminish, when there’s 2 sets of platooning linemen on the gridiron.
But it’s not as if The Geek has been tracking DL minutes for Hillsboro’s depth chart (where are those glasses again?), and neither do a majority of Regional Radio’s listeners care about that sort of thing. Hopefully, the Hawks are preparing to rotate enough of the ’22 squad’s sizable crew of linemen that the “play or rest up” conundrum won’t rear its head for any of Hillsboro’s star tailbacks late this season, and Sucharski’s name-brand oriented radio interview was simply an example of an intelligent CEO knowing what audience he’s speaking to. Casual fans would rather hear Sucharski talk about Division 1 athletes than engage in a deep analysis of the Hawks’ minutes-played on the defensive line in mismatched games.
If the HC is quietly working the whole Blue & White depth-chart as well as he’s managing his top players, casual fans might just keep hearing about those “name-brand” Hillsboro feats right on up to Thanksgiving.
#2 – Seckman Jaguars
Loyal readers of Mississippi Magazine have heard this song before, but the chances of Fox High School beating Seckman in Week 5 are directly tied to how often Jaguar coaches naively yell “Tackle Your Assignment!” at the SHS defense.
It’s funny to hear coaches talk about defending the Flexbone sometimes. Question: “Well, after giving up 8 touchdowns on 9 opposing possessions, would you consider blitzing a little more next time?” Answer: “You can’t blitz the Flexbone offense. They’ll just throw it over our heads and score.”
Hmm. Okay, assuming that a triple-option oriented team can successfully throw 9 complete bombs in a row for touchdowns, what would be the difference between that and letting them score 8 out of 9 times on time-consuming drives? Another 10:00 or 20:00 of time-of-possession would surely help your offense make-up for just 1 more opponent’s TD, no? The truth is that a Flexbone coach loves to hear his opponent say, “play assignment football, stay disciplined, get ’em tackled up.” All defenses must play “assignment football” against any offense, but the Paul Johnson playbook is designed to work no matter WHAT defenses do so long as the QB-A-B-A backfield has time and space to operate. Any defensive “assignment” is easily accounted-for as soon as the offensive coordinator gets word from the press box as to what an opponent is doing. Sure, an “assignment”-based defense can restrict the Flexbone and get rushers “tackled up”…but then a 6th-straight run for a 1st down leads to another 10-minute defensive turn and a costly touchdown allowed at the end of an option “Death March.”
Successful NCAA coaches like Lou Holtz and Brian Kelly know that chaos is an option team’s Achilles Heel. That’s the only way they could have combined to beat Army, Navy, and Air Force in 90 out of 100 scrums. The Georgia Bulldogs used to “fire” their secondary at Paul Johnson’s Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets almost every season, and (often after losing to UGA) the legendary coach would sigh and tell reporters, “we should hit our open receivers downfield, but we didn’t.” Every team’s offense thinks it should hit an open WR downfield on every single blitz the opponents sends at the QB. If they did so, then nobody would ever blitz. But a fierce all-out blitz puts a less-athletic option pigskin team in a real pickle, forcing the squad to out-athlete rather than out-scheme and out-execute its rival. Once a single play is busted, the offense is faced with 2nd or 3rd down and long yardage to go, and the passing game is no longer a threat to surprise the defense with a long TD.
Seckman’s “waves” of powerful seniors should be used to bluntly overwhelm the Fox offense on Friday, much like Georgia’s hell-for-leather style of stopping Georgia Tech in the 2010s. It’s the only way the Jaguars can be assured of beating Fox by a substantial score. Otherwise, the teams’ similar styles could produce such a fast-moving clock and a low final score that anything could happen, including the Jags taking their 2nd expected loss in a span of 5 weekends.
#3 – Festus Tigers
TGG is a fan of running back Hayden Bates, and gives kudos to Midmeadow Lane’s football stars who migrated from the basketball team. But over the last few Fridays, it was easy to wonder if Bates had kidnapped RBs Landen Yates and Landen Bradshaw, the Tigers’ dual veteran weapons in the backfield, and thereby forced coaches to give him every single carry in every single game in spite of a wealth of talent at the RB position. Festus R-6 isn’t uploading any stats to STLToday during the season anymore (BOO!) but if the Black & Gold still did so, you’d probably see about 700 yards and 10 touchdowns on Bates’ ledger so far – which is awesome – and about 33 yards for every other FHS running back combined, which isn’t so awesome. Essien Smith is the fastest and most agile rusher on the team, but even he can’t ascend into the running-back duties when Jeremiah Cunningham is at quarterback. There’s just Bates, Bates, Bates in the backfield on consecutive series, until the Festus ground game resembles a “series” of Alfred Hitchcock sequels.
Ofodile’s Week 5 interview with Ameritime Sports provided some answers. Bradshaw isn’t severely hurt, but he’s got a hamstring problem, and Coach O allowing the word “Districts” to slip off his tongue illustrates what the skipper has in mind when it comes to featuring the senior. Bradshaw has always been a late-year standout and will probably always be a late-year standout. It’s better than being a flash-in-the-pan who stinks in November! It’s also no surprise that Landen Yates is getting prodigious snaps at WR and at cornerback with Bradshaw missing, which throws a wrench in the depth chart.
As for Essien Smith, hopefully the Tigers are planning to use the swift sophomore in-tandem with Cunningham as opposed to simply letting the 2nd-banana QB spell the starter on change-of-pace possessions. Ofodile has his reasons for managing the roster how it’s been managed, but the fact is that Valle, St. Genevieve, and even Windsor celebrated on the field an awful preponderance of times while Yates, Smith, and others sat helpless with nary a carry or a tackle. The fastest boys must be more involved in places where speed is called for, or else Bates has been taking a lot of punishment for no good reason.
#4 – Fox Warriors
Fox High is uploading stats on STLToday, and wow, is the Warrior backfield flourishing more than you’d think, given that Fox is currently a 1-3 team. If the Seckman Jaguars make The Geek unhappy and refuse to blitz the defense in Arnold this Friday, perhaps it will be because visiting HC Nick Baer is afraid to help the Fox passing game get rolling. QB Dylan Stevens has struggled with an 8-for-25 mark so far, but that will change if the Red & White keeps running the rock like it’s 2020.
#5 – St. Pius Lancers
As promised, the boys from Hill Valley have leapt over rungs #6 and #7 at once with the first real statement win of any I-55 Conference team in 2022. MSHSAA fans looking to avoid the “trappings” of a Horse & Saddle Prep style small-school contest should drive to the Tri-Cities and viddy SPX-Herculaneum this Friday, a scrum in which Lucas Bahr and Dabrein Moss (“E” before “I,” The Geek’s got it right now!) will be competing to take everyone’s breath away with catches and long gallops.
#6 – Herculaneum Blackcats
Herky, of course, will go for 2 every time that they score in Week 5. But hey, anyone can flip on the TV and see college or pro teams kicking extra-points. Prep pigskin wouldn’t be the same without some “Horse & Saddle” mixed in.
#7 – Jefferson Blue Jays
Jefferson takes a road trip to Affton just as the Bayless Bronchos are looking especially weak. But that’s what we thought about Kelly prior to JHS taking a truly spooky upset loss in the postseason just after Halloween ’21.
#8 – Northwest Lions
A really, really good running back is always the “secret” cog around which a spread-offense engine is built, so TGG cannot see his way clear to rank the winless Lions below Class 1 this week, with the knowledge of how hampered the Northwest running game has been while taking-on a killer schedule. But it will be interesting to see how Cedar Hill’s new offense does once Chase Viehland is back on the scene. If Northwest continues to go winless with all pistons firing, then the Magazine will have no choice but to let the Lions sink down to where the bottom of the Mississippi…Conference is in the Power Poll.
T-9 – Grandview Eagles
The Gridiron Geek’s hunch was that Bayless star Mark Patton was either not 100% or sitting-out altogether when the Bronchos lost to Perryville by 40 points last week. (We did see him laboring at the end of Crystal City’s tough 34-14 win over BHS in Week 3.) Given the senior’s skill set, there is simply no way that Patton wouldn’t have raced through Perryville’s porous defenders on any number of series if he were available-as-usual in the Bayless backfield. Sho’ nuff, Patton’s season stats haven’t changed at all following the Perryville loss, and neither was the tailback’s rush total (which would HAVE to have surpassed 100 yards in garbage-time against a poor PHS underclass) mentioned in newspaper recaps of the game.
Bayless can’t throw a 50-yard pass and has no alternative skill players comparable to Patton. That means Perryville’s 40-point total must be taken-in-context such as the Chicago Bears beating an expansion team who couldn’t make a 1st down. Sure, Perryville scored 40 points, but the Pirates were also teed-up in rosy pastures time and time again while a 100% helpless opposing offense went 3-and-out in comparison. Hopefully, that won’t happen this Friday at Winchester Avenue.
T-9 – Crystal City Hornets
Having adopted the conference-less Crystal City Hornets like our own over the past 3 years, Mississippi Magazine was sure to “count to ten” before posting the Power Poll this week. The Geek’s sullen anguish at not being able to cover Crystal City-at-Gateway Tech in person on Saturday (since the bout was “oh, by the way” rescheduled as a Friday twilight game with about 10 days left to go) should not negatively affect our coverage of CCHS pigskin in any way. Furthermore, Crystal City has a ton of on-field potential, stands unbeaten at 4-0, and must dwell only on the positives as a magic season goes forward.
Having said that YOU WANNA TALK ABOUT A RINKY-DINK !$&%##@!$$! LOW RENT (edited for padawans) FILTH FLOWERIN’ FILTH $!!##%!% MUNDANE NOODLE (edited for heart patients) NICKEL AND DIME organization, then let’s talk about the malaise that strikes MSHSAA (a “rich” enough brand overall to boast a bunch of unlikely nationally-ranked teams, including “Class 1” teams that could beat the Pulaski Academy Bruins) whenever the bosses in the 573 don’t perceive a conference or a rivalry to be worth collaborating with and supervising to keep the schedule free of pitfalls.
MSHSAA makes a special accommodation so that Webster Groves and Kirkwood can play a real-life Varsity football game on Thanksgiving, several weeks after the season has ended, and yet the Missouri State High School Athletics Activities Association is so strict about most Friday Night Lights rules that Crystal City isn’t allowed to use an alternate field with portable bleachers when the Sunken Place floods. But if Week 5 is any indication, there are “throw-out” MSHSAA conferences such as the Public High League, in which schools are permitted to promote a Saturday game for months on end, only to casually reschedule in a way that prevents swaths of fans, relatives, and reporters from going to see a truly unique match-up.
Some folks might say The Geek is being too dramatic. But anyone who’s planned a big live-event understands. Live events almost “exist” before they exist, since getting everyone’s plans-to-attend worked out is a process. Also, some perspective might be in order if MSHSAA ever has designs on competing with football hotbeds like Texas, Florida, and Hawaii. If this happened in Texas for no good reason with a week to go before an intriguing game (or any game), some thousands of advance ticket-buyers would be threatening a riot. If it happened in Florida, an administrator or 2 would probably be familiarized with a gator pit, and not a fake pet-gator pit like the one from “RollerGames.”
Only 2 things can save Gateway-vs-Crystal from being a “golf clap” affair at 6 PM on Friday, since High School stadiums in Missouri just don’t tend to fill-up prior to 7 PM even when Jackson is playing Webb City. First, the teams slated to take the field are pretty good – we’ll go over the match-up more closely tomorrow in the Friday Night Predictions. But also, there’s nothing to spur student and alumni-participation like a win streak. CCHS boosters should call-on every bit of goodwill generated by the Hornets’ revival to whip-up the biggest (and earliest) visiting crowd that they can on Friday. With any luck, the routine-addled St. Louisans coming to support Gateway STEM won’t make any kind of significant pep-squad as of 5:45 PM, giving the underdog guests a chance to steal the momentum – and the fanfare – with an early TD and a lead on the road.
It’s Gateway Tech that’s used to playing later in the weekend, not Crystal City. Heck, the Hornets just played at 4:30 PM at Confluence last Friday afternoon. At the very least, CCHS can turn a media-attention negative into a football positive in Week 5’s downtown scrum. There’s no doubt a 5-0 team would garner some attention, should the small-school happen to win.
#11 – Windsor Owls
Was it just Coach O’s “take it easy” streak that helped Windsor to a heartening outcome in Week 3? If the Albino Birds defeat the DeSoto Dragons by 2 or more TDs this weekend, we’ll know that the answer is no.
#12 – DeSoto Dragons
Windsor’s biggest problem in Week 5 is that “scenery” of past success tends to help the Varsity Dragons more than most teams. Not that Joachim Junction doesn’t fade into the background for DHS veterans…but the Owls’ jerseys won’t.