Week 2 Friday Night Predictions
Valle University at Festus High School
FHS faithful shouldn’t be too worried about a blow-out loss from Valle U. in Week 2. A.J. Ofodile has never taken a Turbo Clock defeat since arriving at Midmeadow Lane, just as he rarely embarrasses a weak opponent by 40+ points at halftime, mostly thanks to the coach’s policy of playing a full starting-33 across 3 units until it’s time to “load up” the defense and special teams against talented rivals. Seckman out-rushed Valle University last weekend and Festus has a decent chance to do the same, with a brand-new aggressive outside run game keyed by swift QBs Cunningham and Smith with a bigger OL than usual.
But it’s also time to recalibrate our concept of Valle’s powerhouse on the gridiron. We’re talking about 20-25 of the best student-athletes in St. Genevieve County history playing for the same team in the same year. Dex R. Stacky Judd Naeger is using a clever psychological ploy in the media as well, still lobbying soft-touch editorialists like Russell Korando of the Jefferson County Leader to say that Warrior football is a “Class 1” operation. (Korando and Naegar’s “co-authored” JCL item from Thursday also said that Valle U.’s team is “undersized” and destined to be out-manned by its opponents in 2022. That is such a hilarious joke that TGG would like to know if the 2 men made it up themselves or someone told it to them.) If a program like Festus or Seckman defeats Valle University in 2022, it’s not really fair anyway, just a bully beating-up on a “small” Class 1 roster that should still be allowed to beat Thayer by 95 points instead.
Festus High will ignore the chatter and play like mad, knowing that Valle could be more dangerous than anyone in the Suburban League, let alone the Mississippi and I-55 Conference fields. It may help R-6 alumni to imagine that there’s a separate High School in St. Genevieve (there is) where the regular students go, while the “Valle campus” is actually a handy meeting place for a hand-picked Friday lineup to study together. Hayti, a public school with 100-200 nerdy academic kids and 20-30 boys who are very good at football, is what Mississippi Magazine calls a “Class 1 operation.” Valle U., with about 100 students attending class, 95% of whom happen to have been youth-amateur sports stars, isn’t a “Class 1 prep school” at all but something more akin to Olympic Village.
Big, deep, prolific Class 4 teams like FHS could have a decent shot to grind through ball-control victories over Valle U. after the leaves turn. But with a healthy All-Star cast of visitors descending on Midmeadow Lane to play on a perfect September evening, the “nice” conditions actually make Valle U. into a heavy favorite. Given the meager pass-rush available to the Tigers at the present time, the only real hope for an upset win is if Chase Fallert, the starting QB for “Olympic Athletes of Valle Catholic,” happens to have a poor night tossing the egg. PREDICTION: VALLE U. 45, ACTUAL HIGH SCHOOL TEAM 27
Herculaneum Blackcats at Fredericktown Blackcats
Quietly, this is among the tightest Jeff-Co pigskin handicaps of the week, and a fascinating clash of styles, with Fredericktown’s bigger, better, bolder (no, this isn’t an ad for bonus-stick deodorant) bunch up against Herculaneum’s wide-open passing attack, which The Gridiron Geek knows was also a thing at Herky in 2012, 2002, and 1992 without even checking. A computer (or a distracted STLToday pundit) may give the out-of-county ‘Cats a slight edge due to having scored a Week 1 win against Jefferson, a program which has been bumming HHS with an active opposing win streak. But the upstart Fredericktown effort is still based on solid blocking and tackling without a ton of swift kids patrolling the hash marks. There’s a chance that Herky’s WRs and running backs will shock Fredericktown with early speed on the edge, indicating the slower side just won’t be able to keep-up with QB Jackson Dearing’s exciting team despite upgraded fundamentals. PREDICTION: (HHS) BLACKCATS 34, FREDERICKTOWN 21
Cuba Wildcats at Jefferson Blue Jays
There are a number of local Week 1 road-losers who have a chance to romp to a run-away triumph and “reset” the 2022 regular season in front of host faithful on Friday. Jefferson appears to be taking-on an even weaker Cuba Wildcat side than some of the dodgy lineups we’ve seen from the Cigars recently, putting Blue Jays next to other teams in the sunny spot. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 41, CUBA 7
Cape Girardeau Central Tigers at Hillsboro Hawks
Cape Central is slowly starting to look like itself again after falling off a cliff in 2020 and 2021. We’re still not sure CHS has improved enough to move the “blow-out meter” over to level-odds for this Friday at Hillsboro, a theme that we’ll be revisiting as other Week 2 opponents try to improve on a dreadful showing in the match-up from last season. PREDICTION: HAWKS 38, CHS 17
Louisiana Bulldogs at Crystal City Hornets
Louisiana was the biggest “bugaboo” on Crystal City’s slate last year, an opponent that didn’t outclass the Hornets athletically but patiently capitalized on mistakes while CCHS flailed and floundered. A more experienced and confident Crystal lineup should be able to play a cleaner game in 2022, but the real reason Louisiana finds itself an underdog is that the Bulldogs graduated 12 players and have a smaller Class of 2023 on the gridiron, making LHS another Crystal City opponent to have potentially slid backwards in the offseason while CCHS produces its best team of an era. PREDICTION: HORNETS 34, LOUISIANA 28
Perryville Pirates at Windsor Owls
Windsor can be “Season Reset Team #2” against a visiting Perryville lineup that includes about 50 players, looks the part in warm-ups, then plays like a Madden opponent on “Rookie” setting. Kind of a MSHSAA-land version of the Kansas Jayhawks, if you will. PREDICTION: ALBINO BIRDS 26, PERRYVILLE 12
St. Pius Lancers at Bishop DuBourg Cavaliers
St. Pius may be on the road in Week 2, but it’s a neat St. Louis location, and yet another handy cupcake to help our local boys get to 1-1. PREDICTION: LANCERS 52, DUBOURG 6
Bayless Bronchos at Grandview Eagles
Grandview doesn’t need to “reset” anything, having gone 1-0 with a solid road win already. Bayless would be quite comparable to Perryville even if the teams didn’t share a conference – TGG would think that a beefed-up roster of 30-35 student-athletes (and lots of seniors) would turn-up a few more reasonably fast kids than Bayless has its hands on, and no, the fastest boys in town aren’t enrolling at Affton to play for the Bananas instead. PREDICTION: EAGLES 44, BAYLESS 13
University City Lions at Seckman Jaguars
University City is another brand casual MSHSAA fans may need a refresher on. The Varsity Lions still produce a handful of playmakers in most years, and could contend in Class 2 or Class 3 this autumn. But the Seckman match-up has become a slow-motion scheduling mistake that TGG is sure both coaching staffs would take-back now if they could.
In a short span of 2-3 years, University City has continued to decline in enrollment, even garnering Class 2 seeds from MSHSAA after a decade spent fighting C4 rivals like Hillsboro. Seckman, of course, has swelled in overall enrollment and in numbers on the gridiron. University City folks at tonight’s game could use a friendly word from Imperial spectators that SHS wouldn’t have set up a C6 vs C2 contest if everyone had known at the time what the scenario would be. PREDICTION: LARGE SCHOOL 60, SMALL SCHOOL 6
Fox Warriors at Lafayette Lancers
The Geek is tempted to make Lafayette a strong favorite, not based on home-field advantage so much as the Lancers’ historical success against Arnold, and Fox’s internal issues that the Warriors are still working-out. But the “favorites” nearly faltered against Cinderella side Riverview Gardens last weekend, while the rehabbing Warriors rolled over a bigger school. PREDICTION: LAFAYETTE 24, WARRIORS 22
Northwest Lions at Parkway South Patriots
When an NCAA-style coaching staff revamps what had been a fairly decent option-style offense, there’s a danger that coaches will go around telling alumni what “progress” the team is making and how much more “legitimate” they are now, while the school just happens to be losing 35-14 all the time, causing fans to get real sick of the rhetoric, real fast. The best way Cedar Hill can ward-off such skepticism is to paste the paltry Parkway South Patriots by a convincing score, and get the Lions back to .500 with a few style-points in the passing game. PREDICTION: LIONS 42, PARKWAY SOUTH 14