One recent time The Gridiron Geek changed his mind this abruptly on a football game was in 2020, when the Kansas City Chiefs met the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. Since there was no chance for a “hit” national preview of a Super Bowl by the Wednesday before the Greatest Show on Earth, TGG considered it little more than a bragging-rights pick for his Virtual Office, stupidly going along with the media’s bandwagon at the time – “Da 49ers are da sexy pick!” – until it was 10 hours to publish.
It’s one of those Gridiron Visions that wakes you up out of bed. “Erm. Hmm. Umm. Well, uhh, Pat Mahomes of the Chiefs is the best quarterback ON THIS PLANET, and generally, when a team goes into a big game, with the best quarterback ON THIS PLANET taking the snaps, they tend to find an edge.” BOOM – The Geek’s fever dream was right. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a title.
Mississippi Magazine can’t promise the same result in this week’s only Friday Night Prediction in print. It doesn’t even have to do with the winning team so much as the type of Suburban Orange conference title contest at Oakville that everyone’s about to see. Northwest, Seckman, and Jefferson High don’t have “secondary” kickoffs next to St. Pius X vs Valle Catholic. They are primary occasions, because championships are in the offing. The Oakville Tigers and Northwest Lions will be fighting it out in one of the Suburban League’s lively new races. SPX and Valle are having fun, with a scoreboard that won’t mean squat in Week 13.
Our YouTube channel had a Northwest-over-Oakville pick prepared that fit many of the blog’s theories. In short, it had Cedar Hill winning emphatically in a defensive battle, with a final score that barely combined for 20 points. Northwest’s defense has turned into the crux of every matchup now that Misters-Stark and Clines are performing side-by-side for it. If the Varsity Tigers struggle against Northwest’s D’ as routinely as they labored against Seckman and Lindbergh – arguably the other two best defenses on the OHS schedule this season – then Oakville could also have a hard time keeping up on a night full of talented kids. Northwest can score enough points to win after honing its game against opponents like Fox, but we know from experience that the Lions will play it cool with the bean in hand if they hold a 5-15 point lead over a tough team. After fireworks had been forecasted for NHS-Oakville last season, Oakville won it by a score like 11.5 to 4.
Northwest’s fine defense, potentially starring the Belcher brothers cousins Friday, would love to return the favor in a revenge victory.
Oakville, and Northwest, to a lesser degree – are in danger of being stunned and shaky on offense in SoCo, in Northwest’s case by accident, and in Oakville’s case maybe by design, on a mistake on behalf of those who put a cupcake-y schedule together. Oakville has spent most of its seven-game winning streak defeating teams which couldn’t whip Perryville of Class 3 or Jefferson of Class 2, such as Clayton and McCluer. TDs have rolled off the chain, and the stats are off the hook, but you can develop bad habits when any move that you make results in daylight and another first down. Northwest has had a similar October free of resistance. Parkway South’s “5-3” record is a mirage like WGHS’s 4-4. There’s a C Flight in St. Louis county, with its own “standings.”
Step onto the field against a tough defense and things change. It’s like when the 1998 Herky Blackcats scored 40,000 points, ran the opening kickoff back for a TD against Country Day, floated on air back to the sideline … and lost 48-7. Should the Tigers’ trend of having lower-scoring games, not higher-scoring ones, against really good teams late in the season bear out again against the Lions, Friday’s official-not-official Suburban Orange Championship Game bowl game at Oakville could appear equal-parts gritty and ugly.
But there comes a time for common sense. Oakville has turned more focus onto its offense trying to get through a season of lineup changes, and the Tigers have turned out a ferocious run game that’s already got RB Jackson Oettle in four-digit yards, despite OHS only feeding its bell-cow back 101 rushes on the season. Yes, that’s a “Cardinal Ritter” rushing average of close to 11 YPC for Mr. Oettle, but averaging 12-15 carries a night is a bit low for a big tailback on a team that has thrown the ball fewer than 50 times.
How did Oakville score on so many short-fields? The Tigers are minting so many turnovers that they’re like a gang from the movies, stealing more often that Marcellus Wallace, and swapping rights to a Turnover Chain the size of Mr. T’s.
Are you an Oak man, Jimmy? Oak’s nice. Oakville’s senior pass-rusher Kaden Updike has four recovered fumbles in 2026. His thieving gang of teammates has two other tacklers who can boast three fumble recoveries this year. Seven Tigers in all have recovered more than one opposing fumble! Heck, the Tigers are scoring from the Red Zone, not driving their way into it.
Northwest may want to try to score quickly, trying to put Oakville under pressure to respond with its own offense, which cannot force or recover a fumble, in an all-the-marbles showdown. It feels safer to let Northwest hunt turnovers, then allow Cohenn Stark to fire away deep on Sudden Change downs, than to devise a game plan of Lions rushers taking turns plunging into very tight quarters.
Then there’s the setting itself to consider. It’s Senior Night at Oakville, meaning that the Tigers won’t go down without a fight. The conference trophy makes for a well-timed occasion because Northwest and Oakville could both conceivably get time off in Week 10. Whichever team is winning at Oakville won’t be too worried about having to play again seven days later – but the losing team might just worry about that, with Seckman still so competitive in the district race. The game’s leading team will feel confident, and the trailing team will be desperate, leading to a bout in which neither side is motivated to dial it down.
Can Braydon Jones and Jax Newcomer get open against Oakville’s defensive backfield? Who knows, because Oakville has played so few elite passing teams that there’s no sample-size of outcomes to look at. Seckman’s Brody Kube tossed only 11 passes on Oakville in Week 1, but they were mostly effective ones, as the durable senior finished with 122 yards and two touchdowns.
If Oakville snags any fumbles, Northwest can fight back by forcing Oakville to throw, and then grabbing INTs. Oakville has tried multiple QBs this year – none of them have had a positive TD-to-INT ratio. The Tigers’ passing game has sputtered. It’s probably in the Lions’ best interest to find big-play touchdowns whenever they can, to drag Oakville out of its comfort zone of a running game. Northwest and Oakville High know each other well from Week 9s and 10s of the last four years. Fur will be flyin’ in the trenches.
Lastly, the Jackson Indians’ presence in the Lions and Tigers’ playoff bracket tells each team that NOW is the best time to win a title. With nothing but a Cinderella’s bid awaiting either team in a potential Week 12, Oakville and Northwest could be about to Let ‘er Fly – even if Oakville’s offense would rather Let Oettle Eat. The Geek is thinking that the potential turnovers, and defensive scoring alone, may far surpass original “point total” away in a thrilling season-capper. PREDICTION: LIONS 27, OAKVILLE 19
For the rest of Week 9’s Friday Night Predictions, check out tonight’s companion YouTube post on YT or the front page.
Photo Credit: John Koch Facebook