The Jefferson County Power Poll has come to an impasse again. There are at least five teams in the Dirty Dozen with exceptional potential to shine in November, yet we’re saddled with a surprisingly low number of quality Ws on the board as of Week 4. We have boasted a barrel of quality performances, such as the Seckman Jaguars’, St. Pius Lancers’, and Hillsboro Hawks’ combustible point-scoring versus teams which would have been considered only mild underdogs to the Jags, Lancers, and Hawks last campaign, plus Midmeadow Lane’s excellent defense against opposing stars like WR Greg Hollis and QB Jett Black. Nevertheless, Northwest’s loss to the Class 4 state-playoff contender UCity was yet another blown opportunity to score a signature win. The Dirty Dozen has a poor record as the underdog in ‘26.
That’s the best, and the worst of this season, all in a nutshell. But what’s the outlook? It’s so hard to rank a #1 brand that doesn’t have a quality win, yet it’s impossible to rank schools down who’re outplaying their predictions when they are favored to prevail. Let’s profile all 12 teams of JeffCo at MSHSAA’s 2026 “quarter-turn,” while giving each a Power Poll “Tier” that doesn’t have a Week 4 number by it.
The “Strength-of-Schedule” Meter: East St. Louis’ schedule is a “10,” Veritas Christian’s schedule is a “1,” and “5” means the team is facing fair-to-middling difficulty, like playing the Potosi Trojans every single week.
Crystal City Hornets
Record: 0-3
Strength of Schedule: 2.5
Next Opponent: Confluence Prep Academy (0-3)
Power Poll Tier: 10-12
Best: It’s the 100th season, and there might be 100+ more of them.
Worst: A potentially troubling finish looms after three straight lopsided losses.
Outlook: Crystal City meets one of Missouri’s weakest teams in Week 4, a precious chance to get into the win column. But it’s more important that Crystal City emerges from the 0-3 vs. 0-3 matchup with better fundamentals and cohesion, which would offer hope that CCHS can beat some public schools too.
DeSoto Dragons
Record: 1-2
Strength of Schedule: 5
Next Opponent: Festus Tigers (1-2)
Power Poll Tier: 7-9
Best: QB Cannon Kisner’s great functional speed and playmaking talent.
Worst: Letting North County ‘26 have its breakout game last weekend.
Outlook: DeSoto’s inconsistent defense may be the bane of possible upset bids in the FHS and Hillsboro bouts. Like the Windsor Owls, the Dragons must try to take pressure off of an outstanding signal-caller.
Festus Tigers
Record: 1-2
Strength of Schedule: 7.5
Next Opponent: DeSoto Dragons
Power Poll Tier: 1-3
Best: Watching a talented defense improve each of the first three Fridays.
Worst: Wondering if R-6’s injury woes will forbid a third-straight state playoff bid.
Outlook: Black & Gold (and Blue & White) must once again decide how much the conference race really means to them, with the same two brands looking so likely to war for District honors and a state berth. Should the Tigers and Hawks decide that Week 5’s tilt is a prestigious one, look out for fireworks!
Fox Warriors
Record: 2-1
Strength of Schedule: 7.5
Next Opponent: Ladue Rams (3-0)
Power Poll Tier: 4-6
Best: Jude Pribish becoming JeffCo’s latest dual-threat senior starter at quarterback.
Worst: The crown jewel of Fox versus Northwest becoming a veritable mismatch in 2025-2026.
Outlook: The Fox Warriors may not get too many chances to win games over the next few weeks, yet they will get a valuable chance to earn respect. Arnold embarks on one of the toughest four-game stretches that any Missouri team will face this year, meeting Ladue, Seckman, Parkway West, and Kirkwood.
Grandview Eagles
Record: 0-3
Strength of Schedule: 3.5
Next Opponent: Veritas Christian Academy (1-0)
Power Poll Tier: 10-12
Best: Getting a fat roster to surround RB Brock Poole in training camp.
Worst: Watching as way too much of it was injured in June through August.
Outlook: The bad luck could continue in Week 4. Veritas Christian, while in no way a powerhouse, has a “COVID”-style schedule that has allowed the Eagles to post exactly one tune-up victory over Missouri Military Academy, and that’s it. “Eagles v Eagles” seems fair, but ‘healthy v injured’? Not so much.
Herculaneum Blackcats
Record: 1-2
Strength of Schedule: 4
Next Opponent: St. Vincent Indians (3-0)
Power Poll Tier: 10-12
Best: Outstanding defense in seven out of 12 quarters played so far.
Worst: Badly underachieving on all units in the other five frames.
Outlook: The Herky Blackcats of 2026 could face sterner resistance from St. Vincent than they did last year, when HHS clobbered St. Vinny’s in a surprise outcome. However, the slate softens considerably in early October, giving the inconsistent ‘Cats the chance to work their way back to 2025’s well-oiled form.
Hillsboro Hawks
Record: 3-0
Strength of Schedule: 6
Next Opponent: North County Raiders (1-2)
Power Poll Tier: 4-6 … but wearing Air Jordans
Best: Blue & White debuting with its finest offense since the 2023 state run.
Worst: A potentially flawed HHS defense that resembles 2013’s more than 2023’s.
Outlook: Hillsboro is ready to jump into the Power Poll’s top three again. The only question is, how high? HHS is taking on characteristics of its 2010s teams, that would score so many touchdowns that opposing offenses would get nervous, and underachieve against a secondary-but-useful Hillsboro defense. Don’t expect North County to slow the Hawks down at all. In fact, we think Hillsboro should utilize a Week 4 conquest to compare scores with DeSoto, which lost to the Bonne Terre Buccaneers in Week 3, to reassure themselves that such upset losses as last year’s DeSoto game are a thing of the past.
Jefferson Blue Jays
Record: 1-2
Strength of Schedule: 4
Next Opponent: Cuba Wildcats (2-1)
Power Poll Tier: 7-9
Best: The resounding win at Herky that seemed to set everything right.
Worst: Looking at a 1-2 record and realizing the Blue Jays aren’t fully back just yet.
Outlook: Cuba arrives at Blue Jay Way with what may be the Varsity Cigars’ best lineup in ages. If R-7 weathers the storm and gets to 2-2, it’ll be a confidence boost for a school hoping to host in Week 10.
Northwest Lions
Record: 2-1
Strength of Schedule: 6
Next Opponent: Mehlville Panthers (0-3)
Power Poll Tier: 1-3
Best: Finding out that Iron Man football can work – bigly – on a Class 6 campus.
Worst: Northwest’s gut-wrenching defeat to one of Class 4’s better teams last weekend.
Outlook: Oh, if the Northwest Lions had converted on just one out of several chances to beat University City! They’d have been bound to cross the midseason mark 5-0, retaining an outside shot to bid above Jackson in the district tournament. With the tough loss on the books, the Lions will turn their focus to manufacturing a better season record than Seckman, currently a paper contender for No. 1 seed.
Seckman Jaguars
Record: 3-0
Strength of Schedule: 7
Next Opponent: Pattonville Pirates (3-0)
Power Poll Tier: 4-6
Best: Watching a smart, passionate Jaguars team that wins games with a variety of QBs and playbooks.
Worst: Proud contributors at that QB spot going down with career-altering injuries in late summer.
Outlook: The Geek can’t yet confirm the details of Connor Baer’s Week 3 injury. That might sound funny, since TGG is so immersed in local pigskin. Seckman was anticipated to win handily, so The Geek focused on watching other matchups live last weekend. Replays were absent. There’s no postgame interview of Coach Nick Baer, no MSHSAA TV video, and no HUDL-page replay of Seckman-Lindbergh. Fans in outside neighborhoods can surmise that Connor played into Quarter 3 against Lindbergh, at least, according to the STLToday box score that shows the backup-turned-starter tossing a TD then.
Then again, when a school is just as happy not to leave evidence of its previous contest on the internet, the fans know what that usually means. QB Cooper Frisk’s final MSHSAA TV performance of 2026 was replaced by footage of a rain storm by Jefferson High. It’s raining in Imperial today, whether it’s sunny outside or not. Seckman’s Power Poll tier isn’t gauged at 4-6 directly due to its injuries, but the obvious mental and physical toll on the Jaguars that showed up in that nail-biting finish with the 0-3 Flyers.
St. Pius Lancers
Record: 2-1
Strength of Schedule: 6
Next Opponent: Park Hills Central Rebels (1-2)
Power Poll Tier: 1-3
Best: Watching 2026’s “Class 3” Lancers blossom into a contender in a higher weight-class.
Worst: Cody Shaver’s amazing feats getting drowned out (again) in the noise around Hill Valley.
Outlook: St. Pius X is still just tuning up for an insane October. If you think Priory was too soft of a rival for the Varsity Lancers, get a gander at the Farmington-Vianney-Valle gauntlet which faces the county’s new state hopeful before Halloween, and you’ll see why Frank Ray did not replace Priory with Parkway West.
Windsor Owls
Record: 2-1
Strength of Schedule: 5
Next Opponent: Saxony Lutheran Crusaders (1-1)*
Power Poll Tier: 7-9
Best: Jett Black raising the bar for JeffCo’s option-offense quarterbacks.
Worst: A bigger, deeper offensive line was stonewalled by Festus again.
Outlook: Only the Festus Tigers and Hillsboro Hawks’ power saves Windsor’s set of opponents from being ranked below-average. The other seven contests combine for more like “3.5” in degree-of-difficulty, which TGG thinks Lee Freeman’s team could capitalize on with a sizzling stretch run and a top-3 district seed.
Photo Credits: Rivals (Purchased), Jaguar Football Booster Club, NCHS Facebook