Seckman Jaguars at Fox Warriors
More and more predictions are made by computers these days. A lot of High School football forecasts might as well have been made by computers all along. Smilin’ Jack from your city’s major newspaper (we’re talking “Post-Dispatch” territory, not the Jefferson County Leader’s improving sports page) is already unhappy about not being on a St. Louis Cardinals or Missouri Tigers assignment. He spends .000001 seconds of time critically thinking about his High School reporting beat, then grabs a bunch of decade-over-decade statistics for a “prediction” full of lines like, “The Affton Cougars were more successful against Windsor in the 2000s, only losing twice.” What a relevant angle, buddy!
What would Smilin’ Jack have to say about Seckman at Fox, the biggest contest in Week 2’s Friday Night Predictions, and the toughest Jefferson County tussle in the Suburban League? Jack would already know that Parkway West, the Seckman Jaguars’ foil last Friday, is at least a good team, though merely because their QB is signed to play at a Missouri college. Knowing that Fox beat Mehlville 27-7, he would take two more minutes of precious time to call the head coach from Mehlville, and ask if the Panthers had played a decent game versus the 1-0 Fox Warriors.
“Yeah, we’re bigger this year, and…”
*CLICK*
“Fox will defeat Seckman,” Smilin’ Jack would write, before racing away to Ballpark Village.
There are so many Varsity teams out there that if you take the wide-angle view and refuse to spend more time looking at them, you’re trying to focus a telescope on the whole Milky Way. Styles create fights in our local football scene, which you can’t get a grip on by just running the numbers. That’s great news for our Seckman Jaguars forecast, and not-so-great news for Fox’s prospects tonight.
Parkway West worked around Seckman’s strength on defense. Fox will run right into the teeth of it. That ugly yardage total that the Jaguars surrendered to the PWHS aerial game has zip, zero, and zilch to do with how Seckman will perform against Fox’s option attack. In fact, the Warriors still possess about the same offense they did last year. Seckman’s defense, which held Fox to only a touchdown in last year’s 34-7 win for the Jags, hasn’t changed a whole lot either.
Arnold’s team has a bad luck draw against Imperial. Fox’s “Paul Johnson” offense can wreak havoc against a lot of defenders who are great in the open field but can’t mix precision with furious effort on the front lines in order to stop Chandler Price’s ground game. When an opposing team can shut down the FHS running game, they can get by with average pass defense. Fox can’t rearrange itself to put an offense like Parkway West’s on the field. The Warriors’ style won’t let Fox beat SHS the same way. Seckman’s run defense was terrific in defeat last Friday (Parkway West finished with 38 “gross” rushing yards with the sacks of QB Brett Ottensmeyer removed). It has been plum awesome during Seckman’s victories over Fox.
Seckman hasn’t had to visit Fox in a while, though. That’s the big bright spot for the Warriors in this year’s pregame. The Geek was pleased to see Fox High School having its MSHSAA TV effort put back together as of this season’s debut Friday, and even more encouraged to see Fox and Seckman High’s social-media pages collaborate to promote attendance at this Friday’s rivalry rumble. Maybe, those doses of Week 2 hype will lead to an overflow crowd, cheering (mostly) for the hungry home team.
That doesn’t change the dilemma for Fox, for which making big plays is so dependent on establishing the run. D.J. Cox could run a “fly” pattern for a play-action pass from Price on the first play against Seckman, but the Jaguars know that the Warriors might try that, and they’ll be prepared. It’s an unlucky turn, but Fox has to try to score its own way, plowing through Seckman’s peaking DL.
The Geek sees a game in which Arnold’s drives make it to midfield, while Seckman’s dynamic offense finds a way to score 14+ points in the early-going, as per usual when the Jags and Warriors meet. It will be another uphill battle for Fox from that point onward. Fox’s best chance to prevail is to have a fanatical effort on defense, not offense, and try to corral some turnovers to change the matchup’s complexion and excite the crowd. They’ll erupt if the Warriors take so much as a field-goal lead.
That’s why this Friday Night Prediction comes with a warning: One funny bounce could change the makeup of what feels like another low-scoring scrum. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 21, WARRIORS 10
SLUH Junior Billikens at Hillsboro Hawks
The Geek suffered his first body-blow on a “flipped” scoreboard entry this year when somebody had the SLUH-Chicago St. Ignatius final score as “22-3” against SLUH on MaxPreps (or maybe it was on Scorestream, though it has gotten to the point where Scorestream streams over the scores at MaxPreps), when really it was SLUH 22, Chicago St. Ignatius 3.
That’s ominous news if you’re preparing to host the Junior Billikens in Week 2. It’s the Missouri vs Illinois equivalent of SLUH having beaten DeSmet or Cardinal Ritter. (DeSmet, incidentally, beat Cardinal Ritter to secure a #1 in-state ranking last Friday.) Barring a trap-game episode for this weekend’s visitors to Leon Hall, we think that Braxton Chazelle’s squad could be headed for a lopsided loss if they’re not careful. Hillsboro’s performance from last week looked a LOT like Hillsboro’s 2010s teams. You need a “2020s”-level defense to get by along the river now.
If SLUH’s defense finds the mark in 2025, and if the prep school stops putting gimmick offenses on the field, the Jr. Bills could be almost unbeatable when going against smaller campuses, and only vulnerable when facing the rest of the Metro Catholic League once the leaves are turning. The solitary bright spot for Hillsboro in tonight’s mismatch is that with Bill Sucharski, not former HC Lee Freeman in charge of strategy, the Hawks aren’t likely to try for every single fourth-down conversion attempt that they can in the opening half against SLUH, which led to bunches of short-field SLUH touchdowns back in those 2010s. Don’t worry, we still love Freeman’s “Pulaski Academy” four-down strategy and hope to see it at Windsor often. But tonight, the Hillsboro Hawks have a defense that – best-case scenario – can only succeed if given the chance to. PREDICTION: SLUH 54, HAWKS 20
Park Hills Central Rebels at Jefferson Blue Jays
Jefferson High was one of the few teams Park Hills Central felt confident against last year. They might not feel so confident in pregame today. CHS was shakier than the scoreboard indicated against hapless Owensville in each squad’s only August contest, beating OHS 37-0 after leading just 13-0 at halftime over an opponent that’s gone 0-12 since October 2023. QB Brody Pigg was pulled from the game long before the Rebs established a Turbo Clock, making us wonder if he’s feeling 100% too.
JHS whipped a sturdier (if not winning) Priory program 52-7 to begin its season. QB Cooper Frisk’s supporting cast is poised to put all the pieces together against Park Hills, aided by last year’s game at least not turning into a farce like some of the Blue Jays’ past losses to Central and Valle U. The Blue Jays are growing into contenders again, not content to beat Herky and Grandview and call it a day.
There’s a chance that the Rebels will continue to feel confident when they cross Plattin Creek to play Jefferson this evening, but you know what? That’s not a bad thing either. If CHS is too cocky due to all of its past wins over the Jefferson Blue Jays, we’ve got a hunch that _this_ JHS team may just punish the Rebels for that attitude. Of all the potential upset-specials on the board this Friday, Mississippi Magazine likes this one the most. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 27, CENTRAL 23
Francis Howell Central Spartans at Festus Tigers
There are a couple of Trap Game scenarios in the Tri-Cities tonight, and Festus High School versus Francis Howell Central is one of them. The Varsity Tigers are aware – dangerously so – that they are supposed to romp over the Spartans after pulling away from a bigger, stronger, and more numerous Rolla Bulldogs team on the road. But playing bigger schools always reduces a roster’s margin for error, and if none of the Tigers’ typical early-season jitters were on display in Week 1, that is a harbinger that they might show up in full force at Midmeadow Lane in Week 2.
Liberty’s big win over Francis Howell Central from last week might only be telling us that Liberty, already a noteworthy brand, is hitting the big-time again. The only thing that could ward off a boo-boo in tonight’s first 24:00 is that Festus can remember showing up late to FHC last year, like 1984’s U.S. hockey team with the hippie bus driver, and playing like crap until the 2nd quarter. At least it gives the coaches an easy message to try to inspire more of an aggressive start this time.
Remember what happened after last year’s District Semifinal, when the Tigers could have won by 6 TDs, but chose to win by 3 TDs with a sloppy night? Don’t sign yourself up for any 11 PM bear-crawls on the 50-yard line, gentlemen. PREDICTION: TIGERS 29, FRANCIS HOWELL CENTRAL 17
Fort Zumwalt East Lions at St. Pius Lancers
Can “trap games” exist when both teams are 0-1? The St. Pius X Lancers know they played a better game – on offense and defense if not on special teams – against Caruthersville in Week 1 than Fort Zumwalt had in its bummer of a 48-14 beatdown at the hands of Orchard Farm last Friday. They came close to beating the Class 5 lions on the road last season before fumbling the game away. Perhaps the Lancers think that if they “clean up” the special-teams blunders, and don’t give turnovers away again, the win over an overwhelmingly larger school will come naturally.
Eh, but The Geek never likes it when teams come off a loss talking about getting things “cleaned up.” What are they trying for, a bunch of nice, tidy losses as opposed to messy ones? You can’t avoid mistakes, play your system, and expect to lift your eyes to a winning scoreboard at the end against players from a campus 10x as big. Just ask Crystal City – it takes a heroic turn from somebody.
St. Pius X should let QB Evan Eckrich throw on first down, encouraging WRs like Jack Michaud to play aggressive football and try to take every pass to the house. Orchard Farm’s quarterback Collin “Don’t Call Me Dave” Sinclair had nearly as inaccurate of a night as FZE’s QB Miles Medlin in the Week 1 game at OFHS, but once he got the ball in his wide receivers’ hands, the Lions had as many problems trying to contain the run-after-catch as Valle in 2024’s upset loss to St. Vincent. When an opposing team is decent up front but weak in the open field, that’s where you have to attack them, even if it means Hill Valley has to win in a wilder, crazier, and (yes) sloppier fashion than coach Frank Ray would prefer to see. PREDICTION: LANCERS 35, FORT ZUMWALT EAST 31
Mehlville Panthers at Northwest Lions
Every new weight-class champ gets a “freebie” to start. Northwest, having shown that it can dust-off Class 4’s solid teams such as the Sullivan Eagles, goes to Week 2 looking at the easiest foe on Cedar Hill’s remaining schedule. Northwest counted on Mehlville to play foil when the Lions broke their historic losing streak in Week 9 of the 2023 season. The visiting MHS Panthers haven’t improved on offense since then, gaining about 90 yards while committing a bunch of turnovers in a 27-7 loss to Arnold last weekend. Northwest’s new offense with Cohenn Stark at the helm is a sight to see.
Careful, though, George Foreman thought he had a “freebie” booked for his first (or millionth) title defense in the 1990s, and Axel Schultz proved otherwise via chipping away at Big George for 12 rounds. Mehlville’s 2025 defense looks pretty good so far, good enough to punish Northwest on short-field drives, if the Lions become impatient to win by seven touchdowns a second time.
Here’s looking at you, Coach Gerling. You’ve said you are very confident in your new team, so prove it by letting Northwest’s improving defense win the night if it has to. If Northwest has a 4th-and-2 deep in its own territory, no matter if there’s 5:00 to go or not, for the love of all things holy JUST PUNT THE STUPID BALL AWAY and dare Mehlville to average more than 15 yards-per-drive. The one Mehlville-for-the-upset chance is if Northwest tees-up the Panthers’ offense with bad decisions and turnovers. Otherwise, Stark’s squad is ready to move to 2-0. PREDICTION: LIONS 31, MEH 7
Fredericktown Blackcats vs Herculaneum Blackcats
Week 2 is the most annoying time to make predictions because so much is left to mystery. If we take Perryville’s status as the “Class 4, District 1 runners-up” at face value, then Fredericktown’s 14-point defeat at Perryville High’s hands was a hella-more impressive Week 1 show than Herky’s overtime theatrics with Windsor. Perryville’s got Kayd Luckey and Barrett Wheeler back in the offensive backfield, but the Pirates have also had a tremendous senior class of 20 kids graduate in ’25. Mysterious! Did Fredericktown play really well against the team that upset Hillsboro?
It’s more likely that Fredericktown found daylight against a softer Perryville front, and that it helped FHS control the ball and keep it out of Wheeler’s hands. Herky’s front looked mighty vulnerable in its debut against Windsor too. The Geek figures Fredericktown as a 12-point favorite this Friday, but Herculaneum has a chance if Coach Boss throws aside conventional defense, and lets a speedy sophomore group flood the secondary and blitz away. PREDICTION: VISITING CATS 21-14
Perryville Pirates at DeSoto Dragons
This is a preview of a potential #4 vs #5 matchup in Class 4, District 1. Much like Crystal City’s game with Louisiana, it comes too early in the season for coaches to worry about trying to fool each other across a pair of games, and it means too much to the seeding battle to “throw” the game anyway.
We know that some of Freeburg’s scoring drives came with help of the “Tush Push,” aided by the IL team’s strategy of putting all 11 of its kids into a Roman spearhead, like a kid who cheated at Electric Football. Perryville’s RB Barrett Wheeler is capable of generating that kind of momentum through the pile by himself without a “Flying Wedge” to go with it. DeSoto’s defense will have to buckle up, smash into the Perryville OL (and Wheeler) again and again, and hope to have enough left in the backfield to defend Kayd Luckey’s arm. It’s a tall task for a DeSoto team with a new QB taking snaps, up against PHS’s slick senior combo. PREDICTION: PERRYVILLE 34, DRAGONS 21
Grandview Eagles at Bayless Bronchos
Oh, man, we’re worried that the Bayless Bronchos are not prepared to be moved up to Class 4 full time. Bayless has so many upperclassmen this year that if “Bayless Shoe” was ever going to emerge from the conference cellar (or closet-rack), it would be in the Year of our Lord 2025. But the Bayless boys lost to Dupo, an Illinois patsy that the Bronchos clobbered last year, in Week 1. Meanwhile, Grandview crossed the river to play a championship private school and emerged with a more respectable defeat than rival Crystal City’s dire 70-6 loss to Sikeston here on the west side.
If Grandview is a three-TD favorite over Bayless – after so many years of Bayless trying to get to the QCC’s competitive level – it puts the traveling Birds of Prey in an awkward spot. The GHS Eagles have become tight friends with the Bronchos despite hailing from different sides of the Meremac, showing up to cheer for Bayless football whenever they can. Heck, they’ll probably cheer for a Bronchos player-or-two in warmups tonight. It won’t make the Eagles not play hard or anything, but it potentially could keep the interior-line battle friendly enough that the Bronchos don’t commit as many penalties as we’re used to seeing from what regretfully remains one of the most-penalized teams in Missouri. Grandview might also find that its scoring drives take longer, because the Bronchos’ big cast of pedestrian-footed seniors don’t get tired at the end of 80-yard marches.
All in all, we’re looking at a low-scoring win for Grandview, maybe more low-scoring than anyone tends to imagine when dreaming of the next Friday night’s scoreboard. Watch out, though, for that hefty GHS line corps to make a statement on defense. PREDICTION: EAGLES 19, BAYLESS 0
Crystal City Hornets at Louisiana Bulldogs
It’s scary to send CCHS on such a long road trip at 0-1. The Hornets could be low on confidence after last Friday’s total debacle at home. Louisiana is the definition of a scrappy rival, never leading the Hornets in District standings points, but tripping Crystal City in close games in the playoffs and regular season alike. CCHS’s last forever-bus ride minted a dreary defeat at Scotland County.
Crystal City’s got a few tactical edges over Louisiana, though, and in The Geek’s experience, that usually means the Hornets are about to win a Class 1 versus Class 1 game. The Bulldogs’ number of serviceable linemen has sunk close to a danger-zone again while the Hornets’ roster size blossoms. The visitors will have the fastest kids on the field with Landyn DeRousse and Alex Parham. They have to cure the fumble-itis that gave up the ghost so early against Sikeston, but we have seen Crystal City’s RBs go from “Crisco” to grease-lightning in six days. PREDICTION: HORNETS 28, LOUISIANA 12
Affton Cougars at Windsor Owls
The Geek decided not to call Windsor the “Albino Birds” so long as Jett Black is the quarterback. They’ll be wearing their home-field brown and yellow against Affton anyway. Affton looks like a threat at a shallow glance after beating Lutheran South 30-29 this summer; Lutheran South, however, is a team on Priory’s level. If Windsor plays its Class 4-style of defense the Owls played against North County last season, Affton won’t be any problem at all.
Then again, if Windsor plays the kind of defense it did against little-ole-Herky last Friday, then we could see another unsightly pitched battle such as “Windsor 39, Clayton 36 and 7/8ths” or whatever it was at Homecoming last season. Let us hope that the ongoing Windsor-Herky drama is just a product of two clubs’ confidence in scoring TDs on each other. PREDICTION: BLACKBIRDS 32, AFFTON 13