Pattonville Pirates at Seckman Jaguars
The 2023 Seckman Jaguars are closing in on a perfect 9-0 mark like Dirty Harry at a Turkey-Shoot, and there are only 3 bull’s eyes left to go. You can’t fire at a team with no targets, but Pattonville’s recent issues leave the range open for SHS.
What’s gone wrong with the Pattonville Pirates? PHS began the season looking like another “Drama Llama” contender that would score massive Ws over the best of Class 5 and Class 6, just the way Pattonville did when powering its way to a Show-Me Bowl appearance in the late 2010s. PHS outscored Ritenour and Kirkwood by a few points in a tremendous 1-1 start, then later defeated Lindbergh to stand at 3-1. But the Pirates’ failure to appreciably Turbo Clock miserable Mehlville in Week 5 made PHS’s record look shakier instead of solid at 4-1, and then Eureka’s complete lineup schooled PHS 34-0 in Week 6.
Pattonville has an imposing front line and a running game that still churned-out its yards in defeat to Hassan Haskins’ alma mater. But the Pirates appeared as poor trying to pass the ball against Eureka as the Grandview Eagles did trying to defend Perryville’s passing game. We won’t recount the PHS vs EHS passing-game stats here out of respect to the noble Pirates. However, the ugly numbers play into a year-long theme for Pattonville, with a pair of QBs having been limited to an unmanageable 37% and just 4 TDs on 80+ dropbacks.
Seckman’s passing-game numbers are like those of a Bill Walsh team in comparison, and it’s a funny thing. Pundits expected the Jaguars to jack-up their number of pass attempts this year, but they expected Tommy Gibbar to be throwing the bean out of desperation, without “Cole Ruble’s” ground game on hand.
Ruble’s services belong to the SEMO RedHawks this season, but Seckman’s steam-rolling offense still belongs to the Varsity Jaguars. That gives ailing Pattonville only its choice of poisons Friday – to defend against Gibbar’s arm and allow Seckman to control the ball, or blitz away, and risk another “34-0” wipeout. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 27, PATTONVILLE 10
DeSoto Dragons at Hillsboro Hawks
Hillsboro is among the sparing brands that have been faithful to MSHSAA’s previous schedule in the “flip-flop” season of 2023, a campaign in which some teams who played Missouri Military Academy at the same juncture of last season are found going-up against Godzilla this time. A rematch with the Hillsboro Hawks would almost never be good news for the DeSoto Dragons. However, the memory of 2022’s 0-79 thrashing gives the formative Russ Schmidt club a decent goal for Week 7.
If the DeSoto Dragons prevent Friday’s contest from finishing with an “East Coast Interstate” kind of a point-total for the Hillsboro Hawks, and keep Payton Brown from collecting 800+ total yards in the process, then DHS will know without any doubt that Joachim Junction is making progress under a new skipper. In the meanwhile, Hillsboro High School has just one more weekend out of Mississippi Magazine’s headlines, with a rematch against one of 2022’s private-school nemesis due up next in Week 8. PREDICTION: HAWKS 63, DRAGONS 7
Grandview Eagles at Jefferson Blue Jays
Grandview limped through last weekend’s 21-18 win over the vulnerable Herky Blackcats. Jefferson’s got such a long history of defeating even the most amped-up GHS squads by Turbo Clock margins that we’re afraid to do anything but forecast a convincing Blue Jays win on Homecoming Week. Still, it’s a bittersweet stroke of real luck for the Birds of Prey that star receiver Nate Breeze is out mending a hand injury. That deficiency on the outside showed up against Perryville.
We can’t envision many ways that Jefferson could lose to visiting Grandview, with the Eagles rearranging their defense to try to stop the bleeding in time for Week 10. But if Jefferson County’s 3 undefeated teams don’t move to 21-0 in Week 7, the kickoff in Festus R-7 might just be the likeliest of candidates to make that record 20-1. If the Varsity Blue Jays feel compelled to forego a less Breeze-y passing game that got the team into trouble in the opening half against Perryville, and to try to win the Grandview game between the hashes, they’ll find tough sledding against a massive DL. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 38, EAGLES 13
Pacific Indians at Festus Tigers
The Geek sensed that there were problems for the Russellville Indians prior to Crystal City’s big-time Homecoming win. It wasn’t hard to see that North County would not be prepared to hold-off Hillsboro and Festus just now, and Pattonville’s got some real passing-game flaws headed into a showdown with Seckman. There’s a danger of “following the trend” when it comes to predicting local wins over 2-4 or 3-3 teams, for Pacific is exemplary of those whose Ls are due to circumstances.
Pacific is the “Westminster” or “Lift For Life” of the Meramec Valley this season (or maybe the “Fox” of a neighboring county), a talented club that’s beaten its head against the wall against powerhouse foes from August to October. The Varsity Indians debuted losing a 1-point heartbreaker versus revitalized Borgia, followed a win over St. Clair by waging another classic with Union High in midseason, and then lost to a genuine Class 4 state championship bid in Sullivan High. Pacific’s “2-4” W/L record is at least as impressive as FHS’s “4-2” in 2023.
Scarier still for Black & Gold is that Pacific provides the toughest Homecoming rival the Tigers have faced ever since those Borgia Knights circa 2015-16. Festus’ horrendous penalty-taking streak and the specter of Homecoming Blues don’t mix very well. The Geek informs Alma Mater that if Week 7’s Varsity Tigers fumble, bumble, and fool around as much as they did against Hillsboro and Valle University, then the visitors will waltz to a victory.
If Pacific is a dodgy favorite in what could be a long, grueling game at Midmeadow Lane, it’s because the Indians have been burned at both ends a little too much. Luke Meyer, PHS’s best athlete, has been too busy running the rock to produce any sacks or turnovers on defense yet. Pacific’s passing game has struggled to keep-up on the scoreboard as opponents find daylight against the lesser of PHS’s 2 scrimmage units. Interceptions have hurt the 2-4 squad’s cause further.
Like in Week 1 against St. Genevieve, the Festus Tigers would prefer a protracted battle full of substitutions. Meyer might crash through the Red Zone for more touchdowns than North County’s backfield could produce last Friday, but the Lollipop Guild should loom larger than its height if Pacific’s QB is forced to air the ball out by 9 PM. PREDICTION: TIGERS 31, PACIFIC 24
St. Pius Lancers at St. Vincent Indians
If the Pacific Indians are an example of a deceptive 2-4 record, the St. Vincent Indians are demonstrative of how High School football’s winning and losing trends are often misunderstood, until they’ve reached at least 3-5 weeks’ worth of trending.
We’ve read it in newspapers so often. “Anywhere Prep got off to a bad start this season, losing in OT to the Webb City Cardinals and St. Louis School of Hawaii, but snapped the 2-game slump with a wonderful night vs Chaffee, winning by the score of 6-0.” For St. Vinny’s – a team that always seems to play a deceptive schedule – the syndrome began after St. Vincent did enjoy 3 well-matched bouts in a row, losing 2 before breaking through against Perryville with a blow-out rivalry win. Since then, the Indians’ fate has been a product of scheduling, nothing more, given the easy wins over hurting Herculaneum and Bayless, sandwiching the typical 0-54 snoozer vs Valle University.
St. Pius tackles a rival’s slick offense just as the school’s Forfeit of Week 5 mathematically eliminates SPX from the I-55 race in 2023. But we’ve got a mind that a loose Lancer unit with little to lose should have a superior chance to prevail at St. Vincent, as opposed to Coach Ray leading an inexperienced group into a virtual Conference Championship Game. While any such hopeful “loose” psychoanalysis of a team often applies to the offense, in Week 7 it’s Ray’s aggressive game plans for the SPX defense which gives St. Pius X a potential in-road to the upset victory.
Ray is whispered to have prepared a “Buddy Ryan” style man-to-man defense for the St. Vincent road trip, hoping to throw a big, fat wrench into the Indians’ spread attack. That’s probably St. Pius X’s best opportunity to surprise in the end result, with potential turnovers won on heavy-load defensive blitzes to tee up James Smith in better field position, and keep pressure off the Lancers’ key man in the hope of improving on Week 4’s follies. PREDICTION: LANCERS 26, ST. VINCENT 21
Fox Warriors at Hazelwood West Wildcats
Too many Indians! At least Fox is more creative with its Native American theme, so we’ll throw the #4 ranked Warriors in before getting to Crystal City’s critical Week 7 scrum in Vandalia.
Hazelwood West’s shut-out loss to Pattonville looks even worse given the Pirates’ injuries and regression since Week 1. This is probably the week when the dam breaks on Fox’s frustrating streak. PREDICTION: WARRIORS 44, HAZELWOOD 7
Crystal City Hornets at Van-Far Indians
MSHSAA’s schedules get everyone’s head turned the wrong way, but a daffy sports writer can accomplish that by himself in any case. The Geek spent much of his Week 7 worried sick that Mississippi Magazine had offended our beloved CCHS boosters on Facebook, by making an insensitive Sesame Street reference while commenting on Friday’s crowd chatter. It’s stupid because The Gridiron Geek is fond of the polite, appreciative cheering of the Sunken Place regulars, and has never thought any of them sounded like a “kiddie” crowd in the least. Crystal City football doesn’t even have an “Oscar the Grouch” on hand, which is a better way to describe J-98 announcers when Valle loses. The Gridiron Geek was just too sleepy to avoid using inside-slang from his own household to comment on the football last Friday night, and we’re lucky that “Cookie Monster” (our term for the loudest-hollering fan, parent, or booster) is all that showed up. instead of The Geek’s family’s other labels like “Town Crier” (used for the loudest lady teacher), “Clipboard Guy” (for the dorkiest coach or administrator on the field), and “Lyla Garrity” for any especially older-looking senior Cheerleader, named in honor of the chick who was Varsity Cheerleading Captain for approximately 10 seasons in a row of Friday Night Lights.
TGG did manage to poke CCHS fans last week. But not with Muppets fandom. Word got back to Mississippi Magazine that Hornets fans had browsed on past The Geek’s tomfoolery in comments, and honed-in on a poorly placed use of the term “Eisenbeis Syndrome,” for a QB who runs for his life a lot.
TGG doesn’t feel guilty anymore. Now, he feels vain. We create these cutesy-wootsey names for things and expect readers to know the backstory, when there are brand-new readers and new Facebook Group members every day. The fast turnover of amateur football demands a writing approach more like a half-hour TV show – to let everyone know William Shatner’s character’s name loud and clear at the beginning.
It would take Captain Kirk to drive Crystal City’s kids to Van-Far in 30 minutes. But stiff legs or not, Eisenbeis Syndrome – never fear – was never about #12 as a passer, but as a linebacker. Nolan Eisenbeis chases QBs around on busted plays so often that he’s credited for mere “tackles for loss,” when the same evidence suggests CCHS’s lightning-fast defense is just destroying a rival’s drop-back attempt before it starts.
We didn’t think Crystal City could make use of its deadly senior (and junior) pass rushers as much against Van-Far, a team that gave CCHS a “mirror match” of only hard-nosed Option football in 2022. The Geek has been nervous about Crystal’s road trip to Van-Far for reasons apart from the scrum’s importance to CCHS’ bid for a top District seed. Van-Far High looked like a version of “Crystal City 2021” at the Homecoming Game last year, a unit suffering from terribly low numbers but otherwise suited to produce Ws once there were enough boys to go around.
Vandalia got off to a roaring start this season, clobbering Russellville by 4 touchdowns. TGG’s fingernails began to be bitten-down to the nub. But just this week, head coach Dan Fox of Crystal City said something very noteworthy on Live Stream STL, mentioning that Van-Far is running with a “variety of offenses” in 2023. TGG’s rabbit ears are perking up!
Running up the middle is no way to get festive crowds noisy, but do teams really want to play in extended, noisy, and high-octane games against the ’23 Crystal City Hornets? Louisiana has had more success against CCHS than anyone over the last 2 years despite fielding a less-talented lineup than many of Crystal City’s victims in the same time frame. That’s because the Bulldogs are patient, physical, and focused on winning the fight between the hashes. There is no other fight that can be won against the swift Hornets, only losing attempts to out-run C1D2’s fastest team.
Sho’ nuff, the Van-Far Indians are going with a finesse style, “NCAA” offense this year, judging by these HUDL highlights of Van-Far vs North Calloway. It’s probably what helped Van-Far shock rival Russellville with a statement triumph in late summer. Since the leaves began to change, Vandalia has relied on a defense that is no onion at all, but hasn’t been able to take advantage of a number of vulnerable defenses since then. Vandalia needed a KR touchdown to score 28 last week.
Van-Far is running the Saturday-themed plays that The Geek wanted Windsor to try again this year. It has probably helped the Indians recruit on campus and successfully build a 25+ man roster. But it’s not going to help them much against Crystal City. A power-running team averaging 25 points is a solid threat to knock-off the 5-1 Hornets. A wide-open team averaging the same is not. Vandalia was met with a difficult task trying to win with 15 student-athletes at Crystal City in 2022, but this season, a bigger Varsity Indians lineup might find it even harder to out-finesse Kanden Bolton and Camden Mayes on the boundary. PREDICTION: HORNETS 28, VAN-FAR 12
Bayless Bronchos at Herculaneum Blackcats
By hook or crook, the Herky Blackcats are 2-4, and they’ll most likely be 3-4 after taking on the winless BHS Bronchos. It’s a minor miracle that following the many graduations of May and the catastrophic injury woes of September, the Felines could actually now be one reasonably solid October away from drawing into a winnable Q-Final versus ailing Kennett.
We don’t expect HHS to go up 14-0 and then stomp on Bayless by halftime, though. That would be the mark of a veteran team. Herky’s still in the “scared of success” mode as a unit featuring so many underclass kids. Maybe seeing a #5 seed on the table after so many tearful episodes will help remind Herculaneum that there’s no prohibition against Grade 10 and Grade 11 winning. PREDICTION: BLACKCATS 36, BAYLESS 20
Parkway Central Colts at Northwest Lions
This could be the Friday in which Cedar Hill’s slow, quiet improvements begin to show up on a scoreboard, if not the blessed weekend on which the losing streak goes to bed. PREDICTION: PARKWAY CENTRAL 35, LIONS 17
North County Raiders at Windsor Owls
The uptick in execution that NCHS showed in Week 5’s state vs state scrum will also show up on the scoreboard in Imperial. PREDICTION: NORTH COUNTY 41, ALBINO BIRDS 14