Hillsboro Hawks at Festus Tigers
We’re going to learn so much about the Hillsboro Hawks and Festus Tigers tonight that TGG is frankly hesitant to dive into his Xs and Os. Mississippi Magazine would do its best to give its readers the full page rundown on Highway A’s rivalry confrontation in Week 5 if the game actually counted for more than pride, and a local title belt. Instead, boosters will enjoy the rare pleasure of viewing FHS-HHS for fun.
Not that Festus and Hillsboro’s kids won’t try to knock each other’s blocks off no matter what. One might as well expect a scrum between Jefferson and St. Pius X to be dull and devoid of drama. But it won’t matter so much if the Tigers and Hawks go on to batter each other senseless, or stand around for 2 hours sharing Tik-Toks tonight. Regardless, there’s a 95% chance it will only be a preliminary.
Class 4, District 1 has changed from a “Super-District” to a table of cupcakes in short order. Cape Girardeau Central and Farmington have been promoted out. North County is having a lousy football year thus far. The remaining teams from Perryville, Potosi, DeSoto, and Sikeston probably cannot hope to challenge NCHS in the District playoffs, let alone take down Festus or Hillsboro in a semifinal contest. Festus R-6 or Hillsboro would almost have to try to seed low enough in a bracket such as 2023’s in order to wind up with a crisis in Weeks 10 or 11.
From an overall state-contention POV, it doesn’t matter who wins or what occurs at Midmeadow Lane in Week 5, other than 15+ kids from either team getting injured all together in some bizarre mishap with a Gatorade cannister. The team that prevails now will celebrate a rivalry triumph and a Mississippi Conference championship, but the Varsity Tigers and Hawks each have way larger ambitions this fall. (Besides, the subdued vibes from 3 out of 5 campuses have served to make the “MRAC title” race into the “who happened to win the game in Week 5” race.) What’s left to play for with Week 12’s rematch practically set?
Well, there is the potential 9-0 regular season still on the table for Hillsboro to shoot for. The Hawks can’t put on a “preseason scouting” performance and a loss to the Tigers in Week 5 and still try for that. There’s also the all-District home field advantage and a Week 10 bye that a neighborhood crown and a #1 District seed would produce for tonight’s winner. But a District Championship Game’s home-field advantage isn’t as marked as a regular-season home field advantage. MSHSAA restricts what Hillsboro can do in the trademark Metallica-and-Sam-Kinison departments, and a District Championship Game played in Class 4 attracts so many spectators that just about gridiron becomes a neutral field. Hillsboro, we may recall, became the practical “home team” of last year’s Class 4 Quarterfinal at St. Mary’s, another reason why blind (or biased) referees took control of the outcome.
Each head coach’s predominant goal is probably to avoid a 2022 type of Hillsboro-Festus outcome at all costs. A close, well-fought game between ranked rivals would be good for the confidence of both programs, while another lopsided score would hurt one team.
As for a prediction, Hillsboro remains favored in all Highway A battles, not necessarily until Festus beats Hillsboro by a commanding margin, but until the Black & Gold begins getting out of its own way in critical games. It would be dorky and a bit naïve to presume that Festus won’t combine more exciting TDs with nervous flubs and pre-snap penalties on offense, and more ridiculous mental errors on defense, in such an emotional scrum as the Hillsboro game. Not after getting flagged like a third-party voter at Bank of America for about 36 out of 48 minutes of the Valle University loss. Festus has a lot more to prove than Hillsboro regardless of either team’s record at the moment. Against tough teams, the Tigers have still got to show they can walk to the line-of-scrimmage, stand still for a few seconds or so, and then run like crazy on the snap without screwing up and flinching with a step-and-hang-head penalty first. Once the Festus Tigers stop defeating themselves, we’ll see if they’re able to beat HHS. PREDICTION: HAWKS 38, TIGERS 28
Fox Warriors at Seckman Jaguars
The Geek stands by his prediction that Seckman vs Fox is about to get VERY tight again, starting in well under 24 hours. Without an all-time great High School quarterback to turn would-be 15-play drives into 2-play drives, SHS will have its Red Zone offense tested under very different circumstances than in last year’s romp over Arnold.
Look for Cameron Underwood’s option attack to produce a long “Death March” in the 3rd or 4th quarter, either to claw Fox’s way back into the game or – if all goes well – to take a tie ballgame away from Seckman and net a winning TD. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 29, WARRIORS 28
St. Pius Lancers at Herculaneum Blackcats
We’ve made a big deal about how many snaps (too many) James Smith has been taking at (too many) positions. He’ll be wearing a ballcap by the 3rd quarter against a casualty-ward of a Friday host by the smokestack. PREDICTION: LANCERS 56, BLACKCATS 7
Northwest Lions at Marquette Mustangs
When we put noble teams who’re marooned in the Suburban League at the bottom-of-scroll, it isn’t very fair – and it ends articles on a down beat. So we’ll take a deep sigh and deal with Marquette quickly. Perhaps we can end Week 5’s predictions on a happy note.
Let’s tell Marquette they’re in the Atlantic-10 Basketball Conference, getting ready to take on the Saint Louis U. Billikens. Maybe they will dribble and dunk on the host sideline while Northwest finally scores some darn touchdowns. PREDICTION: MARQUETTE 62, LIONS 0
Gateway Tech Jaguars at Crystal City Hornets
Crystal City, in a word, has lucked out with the midseason schedule. Gateway looked like a potential 2023 monster-team that could develop even beyond Kanden Bolton’s senior class this fall, and yet the Varsity Jaguars did not return all of their biggest and most promising linemen, and must try to overcome a poor start after losing to the smaller, rural Eldon and laboring to get past pitiful Normandy. Gateway Tech STEM doesn’t have a back with 200+ yards yet, and is only passing for 52 percent on the year. Week 4 victim Soldan was dead as a doornail.
But it wouldn’t matter if half of Gateway’s kids get lost on the long walk down into the Sunken Place’s pit this evening. If the 2023 Crystal City Hornets keep giving up the football with fumble after fumble, they’re going to lose to Gateway. And then they’ll lose to Russellville also, before losing to Vandalia for a 3rd straight defeat. It’s a matter of mathematics. Winning without ball security is just simply impossible, especially for a patient, running team that thrives on extended drives. Crystal’s stellar kids are another few nights of fumbles away from blowing the most promising season CCHS has had in 20 years.
Just look at the Crystal City defense, a group that Mississippi Magazine predicted would allow just “12 points” per game in August, September, and October. Is Camden Mayes’ defense a big let-down this season? Well, a far-off observer who only looks at final scores might think so. Local fans know better, because Chaffee scored its one TD versus Crystal City following a flubbed kickoff, Confluence Prep recovered turnovers near the Hornets’ goal line in last week’s anxious 56-24 victory, and Louisiana scored virtually all of its points off turnovers against Crystal City. Remove the points-off-turnovers, and the 3-1 Hornets are right where we thought they would be. But you can’t actually remove them, unless the Hornets STOP FUMBLING.
Bad teams in bad moods make extra turnovers and get extra injuries. But the Varsity High School Hornets ought to be in a very good mood, having won 11 out of their last 14 games in what’s turned into one of Missouri’s coolest Friday Night Lights stories. Truth be told, The Geek partially blames himself for what’s probably the root cause for Crystal City’s Crisco-fingered nights – the pressure of high expectations.
If the Sunken Place kids read Mississippi Magazine – and we know that they often do – they’ll likely be expecting to win 2023’s games by more points than they’ve been winning them. If a running back thinks that something is “wrong” with the scoreboard, he takes off like a bullet whenever the first patch of real daylight appears. “NOW,” the back shouts to himself, “THIS is how this is supposed to go!” Then an opponent’s kid punches the ball out from the greedy RB’s arm.
Maybe the Hornets don’t understand how those “55-0” scrums are supposed to go according to The Gridiron Geek. Our blog team has watched Crystal City play faithfully for 3-4 years, and a school doesn’t build a championship winner by turning into a 100% different type of animal. Sunken Place games were close at halftime last season, they will continue to be close at halftime this season, and nobody ought to be anticipating a ton of halftime blow-outs for CCHS in ’24 either. The halftime Turbo Clock scores run-up by Shotgun Spread teams aren’t better wins than Crystal City’s run-away 4th quarter performances. They’re just another style of skinnin’ the Blackcat.
We never expected Crystal City to lead 28-0 after 10 minutes. That isn’t how Coach Fox’s teams play. A state championship team under Coach Fox would take its time just the same. It’s CCHS’s rivals who need to worry about Kanden Bolton or Caden Raftery breaking a scoreless tie with a long run at any moment, and putting the Hornets’ momentum back in motion. Once that happens, we know from experience that opponents have a poor chance vs the Sunken Place speedsters.
Crystal City must stay patient and relaxed while testing its read-and-react playbook out against each team in the opening half. If running backs concentrate on holding the football securely above all, they will discover that rival offenses are not going anywhere fast. Touchdowns always pile up for both teams in a ragged, sloppy ballgame with fast athletes running around. CCHS must play its style, patiently and cleanly, to find out that its defense hasn’t been bad in the least.
Heck, the ’23 Hornets may be the first team to be hoping for 10-yard carries instead of 20-yard carries. It’s those potential big gainers that have Crystal City’s antsy sophomore running backs getting the “Big Eyes,” bobbling balls when a yawning gap is finally in front of them.
Should we ask the Crystal City offensive line to STOP getting better every game? Nope. Let’s ask those A-backs and B-backs to go down calmly and safely instead of trying to break a hundred-and-one tackles. If Gateway gives up 4 or 5 extended drives to Crystal City High, then the visitors could be so pressed for time-of-possession, and anxious to score in their own right, that the CCHS defensive backfield finally has itself a Pick-6 party. Those are the spoils – and the easy victories – that come to a patient team. PREDICTION: HORNETS 36, GATEWAY 24
DeSoto Dragons at Windsor Owls
We would like to think that DeSoto and Windsor are perfectly well-matched this fall, and they probably are – according to a strict analytical point of view. However, the Albino Birds have clearly been saving up some special plays for tonight’s tussle (there ARE still passes in Windsor’s playbook, riiiiiiggggghhht?) while DeSoto has been preoccupied with a full-scale rebuilding project.
Let’s hope CRS wasn’t too distracted to dial-up some “specials” of his own for a conference bout that could turn on a successful trick play…or on a blown-up one. PREDICTION: ALBINO BIRDS 14, DRAGONS 10
Bayless Bronchos at Jefferson Blue Jays
Jefferson is a surefire go-to when we want to predict a win for Jefferson County, have it actually happen on the gridiron, and thus finish off our final Friday Night Lights previews of the week on a happy note.
Sorry about that, Blue Jays. In a weird way, you’re just too damn good to go on top anymore. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 54, BAYLESS 0