Crystal City Hornets at Louisiana Bulldogs
MSHSAA’s Class 1 landscape has changed so abruptly that one of The Gridiron Geek’s worst errors of this summer turned into a weird accuracy. Our 2023 Crystal City Hornets preview reported that the reigning Show-Me Bowl champion East Buchanan Bulldogs were this season’s #1 “Bulldogs” that the Hornets had to watch out for. Little did we know that East Buchanan would be shipped out of a downsized field of nearly 40 teams who aren’t defending champs. With a familiar team from Louisiana as CCHS’s only “Bulldogs” to worry about while trying for Final Four honors, the path starts to appear more viable for Bradley’s Farm. Crystal City finished 1-1 against the LHS Bulldogs in ’22, and CCHS’s win was lopsided.
However, that run-away win from September of last year came against a Louisiana lineup having a crisis of confidence. That won’t be the case this Friday, as the Bulldogs play host to the Hornets having walloped a championship brand in Week 1. Louisiana High humiliated Bowling Green 54-18 in each team’s debut, which is among the Varsity Bulldogs’ greatest-ever performances on paper. MSHSAA playoff victories in 2022 were no fluke for the Bobcats, who’re contenders from Class 2 in more seasons than not.
In a college or pro football scenario like this one, it would be time for Crystal City fans to panic. Imagine a College Football Playoff team like Georgia or Clemson getting blown-out by 5 touchdowns in the opening game of the next season, and the program that destroyed them was hosting your boys in the next game! Louisiana, for its part, must be flying high right now, considering that the Bowling Green Bobcats blasted the Bulldogs 68-6 to begin last season.
The only drawback of rival Louisiana’s 1-0 record is that last week’s “District champion” victim might have been a ghost. If LHS goes into Week 2’s bout thinking it has slayed a dragon, it could well be more vulnerable against a swarm of Hornets. BGHS football is having a world-class hangover at the moment, and it only takes a glance at summer’s Bowling Green preview in the Hannibal Courier-Post to recognize that the Bobcats are a club in serious trouble. The head coach’s quotes send a shiver up the spine of anyone who’s familiar with football’s CEO jargon – when they say that their quarterback is “fine,” that’s not good news. Neither is a quote like “these kids who watched from the sidelines last year have to develop the character needed to play now,” considering it came after Jamboree Week. In layman’s terms, Bowling Green has itself a motley crew of JV kids (and a new coach) as the glue that held BGHS intact in ’22 is gone. Louisiana blew-out a powerhouse on its way down in Week 1, which doesn’t mean LHS will whip a CCHS team on its way up in Week 2.
Still, the CCHS Hornets endured their own follies over the summer and on Jamboree Week, taking the school’s in-house preseason hype and enthusiasm down to a whisper this August. Without the solid, steady play in the trenches that Coach Dan Fox hopes will come later this year, it could prove hard to knock off a clever opponent that’s chock-full of momentum after last Friday.
Louisiana can play a crisper and cleaner game than Crystal City in Week 2, and potentially negate the Hornets’ advantage in big-play speedsters. The Bulldogs will likely force-and-recover a few fumbles as they always do. But if there’s reason a forecast of Crystal City to prevail makes any sense beyond “home-team obligations,” it’s because Louisiana’s mistakes could be punished even worse by a CCHS defense with 4 or 5 kids who can take a loose football to paydirt. Overconfident QBs throw interceptions from time to time. If that happens on Friday, Crystal City’s killer defensive backfield could threaten to take over the contest just like on Senior Night of last season. PREDICTION: HORNETS 22, LOUISIANA 16
Festus High School at Valle University
TGG promised readers a wide “Xs and Os” rundown of Festus vs Valle U. for Week 2, but then realized it’s hard to analyze Valle’s tactics when the team keeps everything so close to the vest. To listen to their head coach Dex R. Stacky, the Warriors are just about where they are every campaign from an athletic point-of-view. It only takes a glance at the seniors’ highlights from last season, however, to illustrate that Valle U. is a different – though still dangerous – animal than the ’22 team that stunned Seckman in Week 1.
Valle overwhelmed FHS with big plays last September, rolling the dice with a “Jet” defense that gave Essien Smith lots of opportunities to make plays, but no chance to pilot the kind of perfect offense it would have taken to out-pace Valle U.’s 7 touchdowns scored. Similar to a giant fish that kicks away when it sees a dip net, the Warriors put a swift halt to Midmeadow Lane’s mid-game comeback efforts when WR Sam Drury snagged an NFL-level back shoulder catch on a long bomb from senior QB Chase Fallert. As Coach O related to Regional Radio after last weekend’s victory, Festus student-athletes walked away from that shaking their heads.
Valle U. remains big, fast, and methodically sound…but without that kind of explosive game-changing presence on the field in ’23. That was readily apparent when the Warriors had no ready answer for Seckman’s powerful offense in the first 24:00 of this season. But Festus isn’t a seasoned Class 6 contender, and it’s not as if Seckman’s landmark win made things any easier for FHS.
For all Mr. Stacky’s fables, the Olympic Athletes of Valle Catholic aren’t Class 1 level blockers and tacklers who are easy to push around at the LOS. The fresh, lively big boys on 2023’s Varsity Tigers roster can match Valle’s strength and raise its numbers, though, giving Festus another chance to wear down a smaller enrollment-class rival with Hayden Bates and a flashy cast of tailbacks. It’s just a shame that the scrum won’t take place in October or November, when both schools are tuned-up and disciplined on the gridiron. Valle U.’s best chance to beat the powerhouses of large-school divisions is late each summer.
The Warriors’ on-field attitude will be surly after what was an all-time embarrassment in the team’s eyes. Valle University boosters who have spent a lifetime watching easy victories through limp eyes and cracking wise during trash-time (most of an old-school Valle U. season was trash-time) will be screaming their lungs out, caught suddenly off-guard by the lack of that preordained 1-0 record. Rampant noise, tension, and pressure will cause the Tigers to penalize themselves and kill a few long drives with mistakes.
But we did say that Dex R. Stacky might finally have been caught by Ace Rothstein in the Year of our Lord 2023. If Valle U.’s offense isn’t big and strong enough to out-rush the Tigers this season, then FHS could Hold The Queen Alone when it comes to winning a shoot-out.
Crystal City’s defensive backfield is its ace-in-the-hole when things get hairy. The Festus Tigers’ Week 2 ace-in-the-hole is unlikely to come from the weather again, but it could come from coach A.J. Ofodile pretending that Festus R-6 is as small as Crystal City High. Ofodile’s been calling for 2-point conversion tries after each TD, despite the team’s kickers getting the ball further downfield on kickoffs. That’s a “Horse & Saddle Prep” strategy that can, in actuality, pay off in spades when you have a dominant ground game. Opposing coaching staffs who cut their teeth winning Class 1 postseason games know that as well as anybody.
The solace for Black & Gold in Week 2 is that if Valle U. and Festus High score 6 touchdowns apiece, FHS should rule the scoreboard with a tally of 44 or 46 points. Valle’s best hope to stymie the Tigers is to contain Bates, Yates, and Edwards (and Associates) to around 5 yards per rush and wait patiently for FHS to get into 1st-down-and-15 or 1st-down-and-20, which, regretfully, are about as common as “1st-and-10” in MSHSAA’s summer games. That formula doesn’t wash when it’s just a single snap and 3 yards to go for a conversion, however, especially when R-6 has the ability to fake the run and toss an easy 2-point pass at any stage. PREDICTION: ACTUAL HIGH SCHOOL TEAM 44, VALLE UNIVERSITY 38
Hillsboro Hawks at Cape Girardeau Central Tigers
TGG has been looking past the obvious while trying to come up with a Hillsboro at Cape Central win/loss prediction. The CHS Tigers who won a Class 5 District tournament in November were clearly not the same Bootheel Bengals who lost to HHS by a Turbo Clock margin back in Week 2 of 2022. The Geek also isn’t backing off cautioning Hawk fans that A) long-time rivalries tend to keep producing tough games, and B) CHS’ “problems” with the St. Charles Pirate offense last weekend were all due to a one-man-band performance from quarterback Jordan Rowe. If you take Rowe’s dual-threat performance away, Cape dominated St. Chuck again.
But why look for a “subtle” angle when the real one’s staring you in the face? If Cape Girardeau’s defense faltered against one really good kid from a Class 3 backfield in Week 1, how are the Tigers planning to defend the Brown brothers this Friday night?
For most opponents, trying to beat the ’23 Hillsboro Hawks will be a matter of keeping the game slow-paced and easy for players to wrap their heads around, which would keep the dynamic HHS offense as one-dimensional as possible. If Cape Girardeau Central is going to be giving up quite a few points yet again this year, then that probably crosses the CHS Tigers off any list of teams who could batter the Blue & White. PREDICTION: HAWKS 45, CAPE CENTRAL 32
Bishop DuBourg Cavaliers at St. Pius Lancers
Jefferson County isn’t likely to win 10 games again in Week 2. TGG isn’t fudging on the above predictions, but would be glad to see at least 2 out of 3 of the kickoffs previewed above this one finish with happy outcomes. Now we come to the 1-0 St. Pius Lancers, and another match-up in which the edge seems to go to the Tri-Cities. Mississippi Magazine can’t tout DuBourg to win given the Lancers’ recent display of dominance in the series. The good times shouldn’t end at Hill Valley on Friday…but don’t expect another laugher.
Cavaliers QB Jack Masters is heating up from the pocket. Masters sparked a lifeless offense into scoring a bunch of TDs at the tail end of last year, passing for 400 yards against University City and willing DuBourg to a competitive final score with clutch scrambles out of pressure. The veteran QB nearly steered DuBourg to an upset of Class 4 last Friday, throwing for another 200 yards vs DeSoto.
St. Pius X’s early season wins are usually subdued, with the hush at Hill Valley broken by roars of a few long TDs that the Lancers’ out-of-conference foes can’t match. What happens Friday if each time SPX races for an explosive score, a Master-ful arm throws a bomb for a touchdown to even things right back out? The Lancers’ shaky (and short) record of ball-security while running the Wishbone offense would be tested, that’s for sure. PREDICTION: LANCERS 38, BISHOP DUBOURG 22
Windsor Owls at Perryville Pirates
All in all, a challenging road trip for the Albino Birds, who are at least bigger and deeper than the unit which managed to trip PHS early in 2022. PREDICTION: ALBINO BIRDS 19, PERRYVILLE 16
Lafayette Lancers at Fox Warriors
Okay, so this is where the good times end. Fox’s early-season offense smells like a vintage Red & White machine to TGG, with players running in nicely curved vectors again instead of jagged angles, stops, and starts. Yet there’s a degree-of-difficulty jump headed into Week 2’s game that Arnold must prepare itself for mentally. Marquette, which knocked Cole Ruble and the Seckman Jaguars out of the postseason last campaign, needed a “Jordan Rowe” type of hero’s performance from tailback Justin Jackson to outlast a hard-as-nails Lafayette team 13-10. Lafayette’s own ground game was stoned by Marquette’s hefty defense, but WR Zae Jones of the Lancers threatened to take over the scrum with 6 catches for 100+ yards. The Lafayette-Marquette game established both of its teams as 2023 Suburban League contenders, while the retooled Warriors are still toiling in the Upstart League. PREDICTION: LAFAYETTE 27, WARRIORS 14
University City Lions at Seckman Jaguars
“We’re coming to you live from Imperial, where a steamroller has been found crushing a small sports-car, and pushing its wreckage all the way down Main Street. The steamroller has dragged the bag-of-bolts trapped underneath of it at least 80 yards in fewer than 2 minutes, and may now be attempting a 2-point conversion.”
“Eye witnesses say the steamroller’s owner was seen hugging the sports-car’s owner before the incident, with one witness claiming she heard the owner of the steamroller say, “Last time, I promise.” We can only conclude that this was an organized stunt, not a violent crime.” PREDICTION: JAGUARS 51, UNIVERSITY CITY 0
Parkway South Patriots at Northwest Lions
This is Northwest’s best chance for a W until at least Week 6 and the Oakville game. Cedar Hill’s brave stands when on defense against the insanely-good Sullivan Eagles make us think the Lions might potentially pull it off. PREDICTION: PARK PLACE 24, LIONS 12
Jefferson Blue Jays at Cuba Wildcats
If Matt Atley’s offensive line is better than advertised this season, the Jefferson skipper might feel like stopping to buy a cigar on the way back from Cuba, his team having “lit up” a whole bunch of them already. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 35, CIGARS 0
Fredericktown Blackcats at Herculaneum Blackcats
The Geek maintains that Herky got more out of last weekend’s noble “loss” at Windsor than the Class 4 Owls got out of winning it. We’ll see. It would help Dunklin’s cause to prevail in Week 2, a winnable game if there ever was one. PREDICTION: GOOD-GUY BLACKCATS BEAT HEEL BLACKCATS BY 1 TD
DeSoto Dragons at Sullivan Eagles
Murder. Devastation. Pestilence. DHS head coach Russ Schmidt will say “Sullivan represents who we want to be” at least 26,000 times between now and postgame, but the skipper must be pleased that Friday’s game is on the road, to be followed by a more manageable (and familiar) bout with NCHS in front of DeSoto’s home throng. PREDICTION: SULLIVAN 62, DRAGONS 7
Grandview Eagles at Bayless Bronchos
Grandview’s Week 2 kickoff goes firmly in the “saving best for last” column, and not because TGG expects any more nonsense like 2022’s anxious 32-30 outcome against Bayless.
Bayless High is an STL-area, cyber-friendly campus that streams almost all of its Friday Night Lights home games, meaning that we’ll get to see every play of Grandview at Bayless for free on YouTube. That’s a treat for those who report on GHS pigskin, given that the school’s band of internet coverage is skinnier than a folk duo.
Heck, your correspondent might slink up to Bayless on Friday night, given how pretty the weather is, and how rare it is to watch Dittmer’s team play in real time. But even bloggers who stay home will get a bird’s eye look at the Birds of Prey, a team that could begin making an I-55 Conference statement as early as Week 3. PREDICTION: EAGLES 48, BAYLESS 12