It’s looking more and more like Mississippi Magazine will take all week to repair, and yet TGG is now confident enough in Friday’s forecast to make the final-score calls found below. So here’s another FB Group original for the kindly padawans who follow our social media, including 11 picks for a travelin’ band of teams. We’ll repost our favorite picks on Friday, with or without a live homepage.
Photo Credit: Alicia Ray, 2021
DeSoto Dragons at Festus Tigers
Wow-wee. Mississippi Magazine readers used to relish this time of year as the Fridays when Jefferson County’s local rivals would start playing against each other, and TGG’s sprawling scrolls on 10-12 games at a time (either long, medium, or short and unserious) were replaced by good old in-depth coverage of 6 or 7 familiar matchups. It’s great that MHSHAA’s new scheduling trend involves tough teams taking their brands local, regional, AND national (See: St. Pius at Senatobia) but to have that coming to a head as of Week 4 is weirdness to say the least. Last season, we were preparing for St. Pius vs Jefferson, this year neither of those teams happen to be playing anywhere near Jeff County, and the Varsity Lancers aren’t even playing too close to the Show-Me State.
Festus versus DeSoto takes the mantle as the Dirty Dozen’s only head-to-head clash this Friday. And, for reasons now apparent to HC Brian Jones and the North County Raiders, we can at least HOPE that Tigers-Dragons will be a scrappy scrum instead of a farce in 2024. While the Festus and DeSoto programs are clearly in different stages of development, both schools’ head coaches have spent 2023 and 2024 shucking-off their old reputations for vulnerability. A.J. Ofodile of Festus came out of the FBS and MSHSAA Class 6 divisions of football holding a reputation as a “platoon” tactician, who told his boys, “You will play on offense or you will play on defense. Not both.” But over the last 2 seasons, Coach O has transformed into a “Class 4”-style skipper through and through, allowing Iron Men like Landen Yates and Mason Schirmer to manufacture plays on all 3 units when necessary. Schmidt, in the meanwhile, arrived at Joachim Junction known as a delegator-style head coach who would never stoop to walking to an actual chalkboard and drawing-up plays. Like a champ, Schmidt taught DeSoto’s coaching staff an innovative wide-open version of Midmeadow Lane’s record setting Delaware Wing-T from the 2010s. DHS is well on its way to doubling 2023’s rush total.
DeSoto doesn’t need a chilly night to win with physical blocking. The Delaware offense is all about having an ensemble cast, in spite of how hard it would be to fit all of a team’s skill players in Delaware. It might bother the Festus Tigers enough to make the time-of-possession battle a grind on Black & Gold. But the Festus boys have been too tough in the trenches so far to lose to a run-happy underdog. When the Dragons get more dynamic, they’ll be a threat in this matchup. PREDICTION: TIGERS 49, DRAGONS 13
North County Raiders at Hillsboro Hawks
One can accuse Festus of being the “Georgia Tech” against “Georgia” in a Varsity version of the Clean Old Fashioned Hate rivalry series. It certainly goes with Hillsboro’s dominance of the Tigers-Hawks game from a simple scoreboard POV. If R-6 doesn’t turn the trick this fall, the Festus Tigers will have only beaten the Hillsboro Hawks once in a calendar decade, and only surpassed Leon Hall in the District bracket twice since 2014. But it’s ironic that Blue & White’s tactics are so influenced by Georgia Tech’s great offenses of the 2010s, while Black & Gold went out and hired an SEC East coach (though from Missouri and not Georgia). Midmeadow Lane’s struggle with Hillsboro is more like an underdog-era University of Georgia squad trying to beat Paul Johnson’s best.
Hillsboro and North County make a better comparison to those FBS rivalries that aren’t always tight, but produce terrific tilts every so often, like a sun-dial that comes back to home. Bonne Terre’s Buccaneers scored a memorable upset win over HHS in 2021’s District playoffs, but NCHS has taken KOs on the chin from Hillsboro since then, losing in a series of Turbo Clock blow-outs over the last 2 years. The common factor in North County’s epic defeats against HHS, as opposed to the Raiders’ strong performances in the rivalry, is that Hillsboro blows away NCHS when there’s too many prohibitively-fast Varsity Hawks to chase around. Indomitable running backs like “Patterson” and “Romaine” have been too much to handle, but Bonne Terre’s tough record against Festus High throughout the same period showed that Brian Jones teams are better at defending a really good QB as opposed to 2 awesome tailbacks. The pattern would suggest that North County is finally ready to make hay in ’24 against the QB-led Hillsboro Hawks.
Ahh, but Friday is forecasted to be the hottest day of 2024’s Fall Solstice season, and could remain as warm as 88 degrees right around kickoff time. What a good break for Hillsboro not to be relying on a running back! We’ve said that hot weather benefits fancy wide-open squads who spread touches. That’s never described HHS…until now. PREDICTION: HAWKS 38, NORTH COUNTY 10
St. Pius Lancers at Senatobia Warriors
Sigh. We’ve been promising a better look at the Senatobia Warriors, the St. Pius Lancers’ latest “exotic” opponent for Friday’s road game, hosted just south of the Memphis Metroplex in northern Mississippi. Problem is that The Geek doesn’t know how to get one, at least by the methods this blog is used to, and there’s always a time factor too. We can view Senatobia’s highlights to get an idea what type of offense it has (standard “NCAA” style as of Mississippi’s 2021 state finals), but there’s no volunteer hours available to piece through Senatobia’s real packages of game footage, some of which literally run for 15:00:00 on their lonesome at MaxPreps. (Knowing that site, 7:00:00 of that is randomly spliced-in Dak Prescott clips.) The south’s surviving small-town newspapers do NOT want non-subscribing Friday Night Lights reporters loading the web versions of their stories on teams like the Warriors, so the blog was caught short on giving its readers a glimpse at the Senatobia local beat also. Senatobia’s HUDL profile is more of a mess than the MaxPreps portal, with Senatobia’s latest scoreboards and most of the program’s 2024 schedule omitted on that app. YouTube searches lead to more Middle School football from Senatobia than Varsity reels. To top it off, we can’t find a single Senatobia player’s profile with a weight listed over 190 pounds, and that’s more mysterious than it is reassuring. Teams don’t contend for state in any region with 175-pound linemen in every starting spot, with all deserved respect to the 8-Man Football clubs of MSHSAA.
There’s always Hill Valley head coach Frank Ray’s scouting report, and let’s hope it’s a good ‘un. Ray tells The Gridiron Geek that Senatobia’s pigskin is comparable to some of Missouri’s better Class 3 operations like Park Hills Central and Blair Oaks, though not necessarily in a championship year. Fredericktown’s new-and-improved Class 3 squad nearly snapped Park Hills’ long winning streaks against Fredericktown and everybody in Week 3, going to Double OT with December’s champs in one of the best High School contests anyone has ever seen. That’s a hopeful angle to think about as St. Pius wades off to meet yet another Goliath.
Computers would give Senatobia a big edge over St. Pius, since the Senatobia Warriors are ranked in the top 100 out of about 400 Varsity football teams in Mississippi, and we’re not ready to mark Hill Valley as a top 25% brand of STL-area pigskin just yet. But not only has Missouri shown itself to be about 20 points better than Illinois on average in head-to-head competition, it’s been stunning to see familiar St. Louis and Kansas City schools faring FAR better than expected against nationally-ranked brands from far away. For example, Lutheran North began the 2024 season by watching its superstar QB Dakari Hollis transfer off the team, then going to Alabama to play (gulp) the defending state champions of “Class 7” (it’s a thing when enough boys play football) in Week 1. Great jumpin’ jeepers, Lutheran North seemed like it was going to lose by 100 points, and that the comic outcome would make Hillsboro’s watershed semifinal from 2023 look puny by contrast. N-O-P-E! Lutheran North fought stubbornly and lost 30-12, marking the Jefferson County team’s 34-12 win over the Crusaders as way more impressive. Hollis played against HHS last season!
That game’s footage could send shock-waves of excitement through the MSHSAA community this year, at least for the coaches and players who’re playing attention. Proud southern states are booking their absolute best to play ball against Missouri’s powerhouses, perhaps hoping to chomp on cupcakes from a land of neglected pigskin, and getting fed opposing TDs and 3-and-outs instead. It’s a dream come true for those of us who were brought up to believe ANY champion from Texas, Florida, Alabama, or any number of other “hotbed” states would crumple Missouri’s finest teams, the way that Pittsburgh’s programs can travel up to Boston and defeat Massachusetts big-shots by Mercy Rule margins. If our kids keep this up, we’ll be ranked in the “ESPN 10” out of 50 states soon. Meanwhile, St. Louis is looking swell vs Kansas City (if you don’t count CBC) on the heels of Hill Valley’s own Week 3 triumph.
TGG’s original score-forecast for this game was “Senatobia 49, Lancers 7” as St. Pius’ inexperienced kids found themselves to be outmatched by a home team with too much polish and confidence for a sophomore squad to compete with. But is there a reason Missouri wouldn’t get that “20-point boost” it has versus Illinois when facing another neighbor with similar (lacking) resources? Mississippi ain’t Alabama, and MO’s teams are kicking butt in ‘Bama anyway. PREDICTION: SENATOBIA 39, LANCERS 17
Herculaneum Blackcats at St. Vincent Indians
Herky’s chances will improve when 2024’s skies turn cold enough, and its leaves turn brown enough. For now, look for another solid outing from a Blackcat defense under-duress. St. Vinny’s could be hung-over from sweeping its St. Genevieve/Perryville rivals 3-0 for the first time in 92 years, though that syndrome gets worse far from home. PREDICTION: ST. VINCENT 28, BLACKCATS 8
Cuba Wildcats at Jefferson Blue Jays
The Geek had a dramatic scene all lined out, in which he would fall to his knees, hands clasped together, and BEG the Jefferson Blue Jays to go to Cuba High School on Friday, score about 500,000 points, and then DARE the CHS Pep Squad to keep chanting taunts like “Enjoy! Your! Ride! Home! (clap, clap, clap-clap-clap)” in Quarter 4. But then he looked at the MHSHAA schedule again.
Hmm, alrighty. Jefferson is hosting Cuba this Friday evening at Blue Jay Way. Well…(cough) that changes all that, then.
We aren’t sure that Cuba will be nearly the QCC upset-threat on the road that it was at “Bonners Ferry Field” against Grandview last Saturday. If the Cuba Wildcats are a smart group, they’ll know that they just got their first legitimate Varsity win since 2021 against GHS (as opposed to the U18 vs U17 victory over Linn) and that can take a lot out of a young lineup, especially when it has a 24-hour disadvantage in rest against the Jefferson Blue Jays. If they’re not a smart group, that makes them a bad pick against R-7 to begin with. There won’t be any taunting at Jefferson, where the 40-year-old Boy and Girl Scouts in the crowd applaud for the referees after penalty calls that would have Cuba’s whole (tiny) stadium yawping like James Hetfield. TGG believes Week 4’s bout will be like the Bishop DuBourg Cavaliers’ visit to face Hill Valley’s defense in 2023, with the underdog’s hot-shot QB getting his yards, but the turnovers from Cuba’s wild errors helping add to a juiced Jeff County point tally. PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS 51, CIGARS 12
Week 4 Friday Night Prediction: Webster Groves Statesmen at Northwest Lions
We beg the pardon of our Cedar Hill readers, who probably wondered just how The Geek could forget about Northwest, our county’s latest rags-to-revival football story, in the midst of Week 4’s previews of mostly lopsided contests. TGG did not forget to look into the Northwest-Webster kickoff this week, but DID forget the Northwest Lions long enough to let this Week 4 prediction slip through the cracks while editing for our “temporary home field” at Fans Of MHSHAA and Mississippi Magazine this Wednesday. That’s why group members saw a small, weird gap on Wednesday’s scroll between “Cuba at Jefferson” and “Confluence at Crystal City.”
The blog’s regrets are still in order, because heck, how could anyone FORGET NORTHWEST VERSUS WEBSTER GROVES for so much as a New York minute? Lions vs Statesmen was the one-and-only contest of 2023 that actually made this reporter cry. Griffin Weinberg, formerly of J-98 radio, went from Regional Radio End-Zone Show host to Camp Counselor in a heartbeat, as Cedar Hill’s heartbreaking final score with Webster Groves was sent over the wires at close to 11 PM. We knew that the winless Lions would be going on to defeat Mehlville, and snap their long streak of futility on the next Friday. But wouldn’t it have been great snapping the streak against a legit rival, not the worst team in the Suburban League, and winning no less than 2 in a row in October?
Good news is that Northwest’s kids don’t only recall how sad it was not to win in the end. The Northwest Lions came close enough to success to sense it, feel it, and taste it, and they carried that momentum right into the county’s only dry, untroubled Class 6 training camp this summer. To say that Webster Groves will be meeting a different team this Friday than in Week 8 of last season is an understatement. The 2-1 Varsity Lions of 2024 have played outstanding defense for 3 games, coming off an impressively stubborn performance vs Seckman’s supreme offense in Week 3, soon after having sacked Sullivan’s QB Robert York III a total of 3 times during Week 1’s watershed 14-12 upset of a Large Schools contender. Northwest, dare we say, has won 3 of its last 5 bouts!
But what about 2024’s Webster Groves Statesmen? Are they getting better in a hurry too? WGHS had just enough to outlast Cedar Hill’s lunch-bucket lineup last season, and began the current campaign looking like it might REALLY have the goods to gobble up Jefferson County’s boys this time, fighting back against Vianney’s vaunted new roster with thrilling TD passes in the 1st half. The Statesmen fumbled in the 2nd half and lost that scrum, however, and needed to play good defense just to go 1-1 vs a pedestrian schedule in Weeks 2 and 3. Webster Groves has serious problems trying to run the rock, averaging only 3 YPC thru 12 frames.
Northwest’s scouts may be frightened by how well WGHS is passing the ball, and they ought to be. For the Webster quarterback Will Travers to be putting up a 58% completion rate, and 6 TD passes to just a single INT, is remarkable. It’s difficult to pass well when there’s no running game, and a one-dimensional blocking style of “REEE-TREAT!” as opposing DEs tee-off around the edge. It wouldn’t surprise The Geek if Webster Groves starts using a bunch of Draw Plays, Traps, and Screen Passes, just trying to slow opposing edge-rushers down any way but the old-fashioned way. Leading RB Daniel Madison has but 93 yards on the year.
Cedar Hill may not have many Class 6 level skill-players on board with its program yet, but we know that Scott Gerling’s kids are as COACHABLE as hell. Northwest’s new defense makes an excellent group against a “finesse” offense that has to run special looks trying to get Lions defenders’ eyes off the quarterback. Northwest might even make a better matchup against Webster Groves’ offense than the Fox Warriors’ strong defense would be right now. We trust Gerling’s gang to have its tactics 100% in order.
Northwest’s only barrier to 3-1 may be the factor that could flummox several Dirty Dozen teams this Friday night – a lack of patience. Hot and muggy conditions will force Cedar Hill and Webster Groves (The Geek’s college alma mater, but he won’t be sitting next to Grandmaster Susan Polgar in the WGHS cheer section this time) to play up to 20 kids on both sides of the ball, so that a danger is having a sophomore athlete look at a “7-0” scoreboard and decide to do something about it all by his lonesome, like one of those lunkheads who think they can break away from their national teams and win the Tour de France biking solo. Northwest’s rowdy, explosive turns are more likely to come from defense and special teams against an opponent that can’t block for its rushers, precipitating too many opposing pass attempts for comfort until the bough breaks, and Northwest snags itself a turnover.
Don’t let a sophomore think he can change Week 4 with a 90-yard TD run, even if his name is Cohenn Stark. Northwest’s winning TD is more likely to come from 9 yards out, following a WGHS blunder. PREDICTION: LIONS 21, WEBSTER GROVES 6
Confluence Titans at Crystal City Hornets
Today’s scroll comes with the need to criticize Crystal City’s rookie HC Adam Sims for the first time. Don’t worry, it’s like the Opposite Sketch version of a “Left-Handed Compliment” that’s really an insult. Crystal City’s new skipper has the defects of his virtues.
Coach Sims has done everything right at Bradley’s Farm this year, whipping up a way bigger 2024 turnout of players (featuring more upperclassmen on it) than anyone at Mississippi Avenue could have dreamed. We shouldn’t blame Sims for the Bayless defeat, since there was always the chance that the winning touchdown in that rainy rumble would be a scoop-and-score for either school. CCHS and Van-Far will run neck-and-neck for the #2 position in District 1.
It’s only that Sims may have been TOO NICE, and not bullheaded enough, in drawing up Crystal City’s new playbook. We miss watching the “Navy” style of offense at Sunken Place, but the fabulous thing about picking up a Dave Dallas inspired set of running plays was supposed to be that CCHS wouldn’t suffer as many “busted” snaps for lost yards in 2024. Every lineup that runs an option-offense and can’t always practice 11 v 11 will have some busted plays during a contest. It wasn’t supposed to happen anymore once Bradley’s Farm was lined up in a split-back set, and choosing a given rusher in the huddle as opposed to improvising one during an option play. Crystal’s negative plays thus far are a detriment left-over from 2021-23’s tricky offenses, but without the benefit of the Triple-Option pitch and other daring tactics that made up for those issues during Coach Dan Fox’s time at the helm. During the Hornets’ 1-2 start this campaign, QB Nolan Eisenbeis has been getting himself trapped awkwardly behind the line following faked hand-offs, trying to run some type of “Inside-Zone” option or a quarterback sweep around end, and losing yardage. CCHS isn’t eating its cake, and it’s burning it too.
It’s as if Sims is so awed by Crystal City Football’s revival that he is treating it like rare jewelry, not wanting to put his own fingerprints on it. Nolan Eisenbeis is a fine Varsity quarterback, but he’s also among the fastest athletes on the team, and he combined with former Hornet QB Cale Schaumburg to scamper all over the place throughout some of CCHS’s biggest wins in 2023. Of course the new head coach doesn’t want to manipulate the squad’s style to the point where it’s unrecognizable, and it’s also a big shame if Eisenbeis (or DeRousse) is starting at QB and finishes a game with 9 rushing yards, because of the basic football reason of wanting to keep Crystal’s best legs running up the field with the bean. But that Grandview playbook that punished St. Vincent in 2021 didn’t involve a lot of shucking-and-jiving with the pigskin in the backfield. Sims’ Eagles handed off to their best running backs and got the Birds of Prey’s bruisers bowling into plus-territory, THEN gave the quarterback chances to fake, bootleg, pass, and run for explosive gains and touchdowns. It’s way easier for Eisenbeis to create his magic on 2nd-and-7 than on 2nd-and-15, making those inside QB-keepers his own worst enemy.
Week 4’s visitor Confluence has been more “rapid” (get it?) on defense than The Geek anticipated in ’24, and played in a solid Week 1 defensive struggle with the Roosevelt Rough Riders of Class 4. However, the Titans have been anything-but-titanic with the football so far, and can only boast of one good scoring night against Sparta of Illinois. Running back James Holmes has graduated, and with him, most of Confluence’s breakout rushing ability. Titans-at-Hornets could be another “Great Football for SEGA” scenario in which Crystal’s opportunities with the ball are endless, but they can always screw things up and kick-over the console.
It’ll be a Friday on which patient offense can work wonders, but NOT with a bunch of 5-yard losses thrown in. Let’s see if Coach Sims can get Eisenbeis a little more upright behind center – in less of that knife-edge “Navy” stance from 2023 – and keep firing with simple, aggressive hand-offs until they move the chains. At that point, Confluence’s improved (but not spectacular) defense will be ripe for the pickings, and a star QB who went frustrated in the final 24:00 of Homecoming will get his mojo back via some wide-open runs and tosses. PREDICTION: HORNETS 34, CONFLUENCE 12
Seckman Jaguars at Mehlville Panthers
Mehlville’s defense hasn’t been half bad this season, in spite of that all-too-familiar “0-3” record on the ledger for MHS. Look for a second “Great Football for SEGA” scenario, just in South County this time, and we’ll know if Seckman’ offense got too impatient when we see QB Brody Kube’s stat line from either an easy or an anxious win. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 45, MEHLVILLE 7
Clayton Greyhounds at Windsor Owls
Hold that elevator. PREDICTION: ALBINO BIRDS 48, CLAYTON 7
Eureka Wildcats at Fox Warriors
Once again, it’s hard for Mississippi Magazine to tout an underdog that needs a truly dominant RB to pull off Friday’s upset win, and won’t be able to produce one in an 80+ degree scrum, even should Jude Pribish pop right back into the lineup after sitting out.
If you find a woman, a lady, or a gal who knows where they like having summer football – with all of its hazards – more so than in the Show-Me State, let The Gridiron Geek know and Alaska. PREDICTION: EUREKA 36, WARRIORS 14
Grandview Eagles at Principia Panthers (Saturday)
After falling in upsets to Valle U.’s typical punching bags from St. Genevieve and St. Vincent, the Olympic Athletes of Valle Catholic went out and scored 300 points against Potosi in Week 3, clearly just working out (cough) a few frustrations. We don’t advise 2024’s Grandview Eagles to do that against Principia, even though a “consolation bracket” of last-place programs across the region would probably have Principia seeded lower than Cuba. (Principia is eastern Missouri’s only team to have fallen to a losing small school from Illinois thus far, even though the Confluence Titans tried hard to do so against squeaky Sparta in Week 2.) The best strategy is to score only 30 points and keep most of the vengeful war-whooping in your dressing room. Heck, let ’em have a field goal if you can. Principia could otherwise be driven mad with seasons of losing in dreary blow-outs, just like Cuba, and take it out on some unsuspecting visitor that’s never had a Pep Squad throw poison darts before. One “Bonners Ferry Field” is enough for future schedules to visit. Grandview’s task is to not let Cuba’s vibe become contagious. PREDICTION: EAGLES 30, PRINCIPIA 3