#1 – Hillsboro Hawks
Hillsboro High is pleased to have Week 3’s kickoff scheduled right at home by the stables, following Week 1’s aborted game and an arduous Week 2 road trip to STL. Weather events might be changing the Hawks’ perspective on that soon, however, while impacting the outlook of this Friday night’s action. Hillsboro might even ask to move Week 3’s scrum over to Washington, where Meteorologists are predicting that the Missouri River valley’s fields may stay clear of the carnage.
Hurricane Francene is set to strike Louisiana this week, and pass through Missouri as a Tropical Depression on Thursday through Friday. There are a few long-term forecasts of “thunderstorms” and “lightning” for Jefferson County on AI-operated weather apps, forecasts that could give our Varsity kids some not-so-tropical “depression” over the threat of having games suspended in Week 3. The Geek is enough of a weather nerd to argue that tropical rain, when it reaches the inner Midwest, is rarely a din of thunder and lightning. It will most probably be similar to July’s hurricane aftermath, windy with a weird, coastal downpour.
Few of our 12 teams are poised to escape. St. Pius may be outside the edge of Monsoon conditions (shown below) on a trip to Knob Noster, but that’s actually bad news for the Lancers, who can use a wrinkle in the field quality to help even things out against a bigger, older Class 3 host. Fox might just avoid Friday’s wettest skies by going up to Ritenour, and Grandview plays in a Cuba stadium that’s got a chance to be dry by Saturday’s kickoff. Otherwise, all of Mississippi Magazine’s boys are the same boat, hopefully not a real one, with Francene.
How is our #1 ranked team bound to look in a rain game? Well, depending on how sloppy and confusing the conditions are (or aren’t), it’s going to be a challenge for the Hillsboro Hawks most of all. The Varsity Hawks of another era could argue that their style was perfect for a muddy/snowy gridiron and high turnover-risk conditions, because they ran the rock so much more often than they passed it. Dexter alum Earl Wheeler never could have passed for 300+ yards and upset the 1980s Hillsboro Hawks on a rainy night. But as Leon Hall adopted the “Paul Johnson” style of offense in the 2000s, wet footballs became more of a nuisance, not just another way for Hillsboro to win the turnover battle.
The fake-it-take-it handoff style of Hillsboro High’s option plays, and those daredevil pitch-outs to the A-Back, are too intricate not to result in bobbles of a wet or wind-blown bean. This season, QB Preston Brown’s playbook looks more wide-open than ever, and gives the future NDSU BIson signal-caller a chance to romp Blue & White’s rivals with his arm and legs. That’s only ever a bad thing when a Monsoon happens. Let’s hope HHS can still run a Midline dive play.
For more upbeat Hillsboro news, we can report that it’s time for padawans to ignore everything they hear about county football games on YouTube. The Gridiron Geek 100% respects and appreciates that Live Stream STL is running its own coaches’ postgame show this year, but you know that TGG just can’t ignore when he hears crazy out-of-whack predictions on the airwaves.
We’ll get more into Live Stream STL’s “opposite sketch” forecast (Friday = Mostly Sunny!) when we tackle the schedule ourselves in Friday Night Predictions. For now, though, the Magazine can rebut the part of the show that painted HHS as a potential 0-4 team??? in midseason. The Washington Blue Jays could well give Blue & White too many problems this Week 3, said LSSTL’s analyst Matt Bates, and so should the Mississippi league’s North County in Week 4, and so on.
Reality check: Hillsboro is 2023’s Class 4 Show-Me Bowl runner-up, and HHS’s quarterback is a Division 1 signee who already received All-State honors as a junior. Leon Hall lost to a Metro Catholic title contender by an earthquake the nose of the football, and fought hard with a championship-level Class 5 unit the weekend before that. Hillsboro is not the underdog versus visiting Washington. Washington lost 28-7 to Warrenton last weekend, and travels to Hillsboro as a ‘dog itself. Could chilly, blowing rain help WHS hang around at HHS? Maybe, but Brown already signed up to live in Fargo. He may not mind the weather at all.
Once again, it’s none of this blogger’s business if people want to predict that Missouri Military Academy’s going to beat CBC. We appreciate that there’s others out there making MSHSAA picks. But it’s getting old to have our #1s and #2s written-off before the regular season can get rolling. Heck, Herky’s 2023 postseason showed that it’s a bad idea to write off our currently #12 out of 12 ranked school, let alone the kings of the mountain. 2024’s slate of opponents is tough enough without making exaggerations to make it look unbeatable.
#2 – Seckman Jaguars
If there’s another torrential, tropical rain, and Flash Floods in Imperial this week, we’ve got to keep a close watch on the psychological well-being of the Seckman Jaguars. First and foremost, such a Friday scene would remind the 2-0 Jags of one of their worst memories of the whole calendar year, that freak July storm which put the Varsity field underwater and nearly usurped 2024’s schedule.
Nick Baer’s new tactics of drawing a defense up close, then play-action passing over the top of it could also take on complications in Francine’s froth, and turn Imperial’s offense back into what it was under Cole Ruble, when the Jaguars almost never tossed a pass. That could be frustrating for QB Brody Kube, currently working from a playbook that’s developed a lot since 2020.
But if this week’s Northwest vs Seckman clash turns out closer than anyone could have expected this year (as in, like, “31-14”), it could actually help both teams. Seckman doesn’t want a 20th straight regular-season W that seems so easy, Varsity kids get too overconfident while trying to propel that streak even higher. Let’s wait to dive into more Suburban League angles on Thursday, when we’ll probably know a lot more about the weather Cedar Hill is expecting, too.
#3 – Festus Tigers
It may surprise some folks how run-oriented the Festus Tigers have been under “sugar huddle” coach A.J. Ofodile. We think of spread formations and no-huddle offense as more of a passing team’s gambit, like how the Buffalo Bills (or the Buffalo Bulls for that matter) line up and throw quick passes to WRs who (truth being told) create much of Josh Allen’s “pass yardage” with long runs-after-catch. Festus R-6 has gone firmly against that trope under Coach O. Last season, the Varsity Tigers – as gifted along the boundary as they were – attempted so few passes overall that #1 rusher Hayden Bates’ total of 986 yards exceeded Midmeadow Lane’s passing-yards total for the season, a product of the program’s play-calling tacking about 80% running plays vs passing.
That’s changed in 2024, at least to The Geek’s eye. We can’t do a stats-analysis because stats for the Tiger offense are missing on STLToday. But against the Francis Howell Central Spartans in Week 2, QB Essien Smith was asked to throw first before running or handing-off on a number of series, and wound up flailing with incomplete passes as stagnated scoring drives as a result. It was only in Friday’s later stages, when R-6 called a run-first style, that things got better.
Why the change in tactics, just when FHS is supposed to be getting a star senior QB into the groove of his life? Festus assistant coach Jim “Ox” Sardo would say that early-down passes leave more receivers open for Essien, and that coaches must also “self-scout” their play-calling and break their tendencies right now, or else Hillsboro, NCHS, and other playoff rivals will know too much in advance.
Festus pigskin’s lore is full of eliminated teams whose coaches decided to act like they were from the National Hockey League, and unveil the Tigers’ “real” offense in November. What a lousy idea that was. There’s a better way to help Essien start completing more passes early in the game. It’s the old-fashioned one.
Jake Plummer was traded to the Denver Broncos in the 2000s after years of struggling behind center for Arizona. The reason you’ve probably heard of “QB Jake Plummer,” even if you’re a 20-something reader, is because his next coach was Mike Shanahan of the Broncos, and “Shanny” took advantage of his team’s powerful running game to give Plummer all kinds of play-action throws early in NFL games. The Mile High City soon watched in wonder as Plummer, nearly ridiculed out of the league, netted 400+ combined yards in a MNF victory, transforming into a regular-season MVP candidate in less than a year.
Varsity football isn’t the NFL, right? But whether they’re a quarterback in the NFL, the NCAA, Middle School, or Pop Warner, there’s a time-honored way to get a fantastic dual-threat QB like Essien Smith steady with his passing arm. The successful run play followed by the play-action pass is the right ticket, giving an organization the chance to tell their QB: “Throw it HERE, or throw it THERE.”
Let’s hope Week 3’s scenario helps Festus start pushing defenses around again, followed by a happy #2 pitching-and-catching to wide open WRs. It should be a soggy night against an inferior Windsor team, the kind of get-well game for the offense that Coach O is fond of experimenting in. But the boys don’t want to spend Friday’s scrum tossing wild incompletions on 1st and 2nd down.
If that happens, Windsor might decide that the Gold on FHS road uniforms is actually the Yellow worn by Affton’s hapless “Bananas” from Week 2.
#4 – Fox Warriors
We’ll be giving Arnold a big chunk of the Friday Night Predictions blog this week, since Fox is one of the Dirty Dozen’s only teams with an evenly-drawn matchup for Week 3. Hillsboro, Seckman, Jefferson, Festus, Crystal City, and Grandview approach this Friday as favorites to win by 2 TDs or more, and Herculaneum, Northwest, and Windsor are just 3 of the schools on the low end of the landslide. Ritenour, meanwhile, carries a fierce reputation, but only a shaky 1-1 record, indicating that the fightin’ mad Fox Warriors can bounce back from Week 2.
#5 – Jefferson Blue Jays
So how is Blue Jay Way doing at that all-important Quarterback spot through 2 games? Not too bad, although Matt Atley’s staff would certainly want improve on Cooper Frisk’s 46% completion rate for the year following Week 2. That’s what QB stats tend to look like after you play the Class 3 state champs, regretfully.
Frisk’s numbers are otherwise bright so far. He’s running with courage up the gut like a Jefferson signal-caller should be able to, scoring points on the ground and averaging 4.2 YPC. Remember, QB Sack losses count vs quarterback rushing stats in MSHSAA, which brings every QB’s rushing average down. Frisk is also establishing a rapport with WR Landon Weiss, who had 100+ yards vs CHS.
The best Cooper Frisk statistic so far…isn’t one. We don’t see Jefferson’s new QB getting used on the starting defense, special teams, blitz package, or anything besides quarterback duties and punting. Jefferson kept Kole Williams fresher than SPX’s James Smith last season, and boy, did that pay off in the end. Changing names behind center won’t change JHS’s wise QB strategy.
#6 – Northwest Lions
We won’t pretend that Northwest hasn’t been a sluggish team for 2 weeks. There is really no good excuse for not piercing Mehlville’s modest defense for another score after grabbing 2 touchdowns early in Week 2’s contest. Northwest-CH’s sophomore star Cohenn Stark has only just over 100 Total Yards in 2 games. More worrying is that star WR Wes Knuckles has 6 touches in 8 quarters.
Not great, Bob.
Ahh, but praise the duality of American Football. 2024’s Northwest Lions are a slow-go offensive team who’ve scored 13 points-per-game so far. They’re also STANDING AT 2-0 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS DECADE (Hooray!) and the luckiest program in eastern Missouri when it comes to this week’s weather.
Want a campus of “New York” kids who could care less about the rain? Just call ’em “Northwest Bronx” instead of “Northwest Cedar Hill” for a weekend. Cedar Hill’s campus knows exactly one thing about this football season, and that’s that Northwest is coming home unbeaten to play in a cross-town rivalry event this Friday. Does anything else matter? Besides, The Gridiron Geek thinks that the foundation of any previously poor team’s rebuilding effort is to get a stubborn defense going – see Crystal City from 2021 to now – and build around that.
#7 – Crystal City Hornets
We’ll try not to single Crystal City out too badly on this one. Mississippi Magazine never thought that it was a great idea for any Missouri school to schedule its Homecoming Week in the summer. Because, for one thing, the Missouri Tigers invented “Homecoming” as a holiday, and it’s supposed to be a FALL day.
The threat of severe weather is another reason not to do it. Festus got away with a hot, humid victory when it scheduled DeSoto High School on Independence Day Homecoming Night a couple summers ago. CCHS may not be so lucky. Francene’s forecasted track hasn’t changed much Monday to Tuesday.
Is the Sunken Place ready for a “tropical” Homecoming Game? Crystal City frosh kids could potentially win the display contest vs the sophomores, juniors, seniors, and CC Fire Department if they took apart whatever they’ve produced so far, and came up with a new Float that resembles the beach, because there’s probably going to be a nice friendly beach-rain falling (as opposed to what could be a torrential downpour in the afternoon) by the time Bayless arrives on Friday.
Of course, our Magazine’s chief concern is how Friday’s wind and rain can affect CCHS’s critical quest for 2-1, and yet another District points-boost triumph over a much bigger campus. That’s another topic to keep on the barbie griddle for now.
#8 – St. Pius Lancers
If Live Stream STL is looking for a solid team that could start the year 0-4 or 0-5 due to circumstances, they should be talking about St. Pius X, and not Hillsboro. Having to play another David vs Goliath matchup without the benefit of the rain this weekend is another lousy break. However, TGG has been eyeing a softer spot in St. Pius’ schedule that goes well beyond Cuba’s upcoming date with SPX in October. For instance, anyone who thinks that the St. James Tigers’ “96-0” debut against sorry Salem and start-up Linn isn’t a total mirage has been patronizing the St. James Winery a little too often these days.
As for Cuba, the Cuba Wildcats (Cigars) are among Live Stream STL’s “upset special” picks in Week 3 against Grandview. THAT makes us curious about exactly what’s in the “cigars” they’ve been chomping over there.
#9 – Grandview Eagles
Our media is falling for the “Varsity W-L Record Trap” again this season, and Mississippi Magazine won’t go along. Why else would MSHSAA prognosticators be doing their “Week 3 upset special” picks on teams like Windsor and Cuba, the latter team being Grandview’s “1-1” host on Saturday, unless they’re confused by the Win-Loss records of schools without considering their degree-of-difficulty.
Cuba, for instance, hasn’t beaten a team with seniors on it since 2021, holding a 1-1 record for 2024 only because of Week 2’s game against Linn High School’s start-up program. Grandview, by contrast, has defeated 2 improving teams by lopsided scores, and last week, handled a Class 4 contingent with some 300 lb. bruisers on it. 40% of the Mississippi Conference is behind GHS in quality Ws, which is why this week’s #10 ranking is a tie between the following brands…
T-10 – Windsor Owls
Windsor and DeSoto are bound to be neck-and-neck in the Jefferson County Power Poll until one of them defeats a Missouri team with a pulse, or prevails by a decisive score when the Owls and Dragons meet at Joachim Junction on 9/27.
T-10 – DeSoto Dragons
Man, you’d still rather be DeSoto traveling to play North County than be Windsor hosting the Festus Tigers this week. Windsor, on top of not being nearly as good as Festus or Hillsboro, is also a bad stylistic match-up for both teams right now. DeSoto has played (and beaten) slightly bigger boys in its 2-week debut, and is executing more smoothly and rapidly on offense than The Geek has seen in years. Moreover, the North County Raiders’ 24-17 triumph over Farmington from August’s scoreboard isn’t shining quite as brightly as of Week 3. The Bonne Terre Buccaneers next went on to lose to Glenwood of Chathman (insert Renaissance music here), while Farmington High struggled to win its Week 2 bout against those wine-y (or at least pesky) Class 3 underdogs from St. James.
#12 – Herculaneum Blackcats
We were prepared to gulp hard, and say that Herky’s slump is very bad timing on top of all of its other woes. Jefferson and St. Vincent is a 2-week gauntlet that Blackcat Football can’t afford to suffer through right now, with a summer of controversy followed by the most disappointing debut you could imagine.
But wait – that approaching Tropical Storm isn’t a bad break for every Jefferson County brand. For the Herculaneum Blackcats, a rain game versus JHS in Week 3 would be a terrific break for Dunklin’s diaper dandies. Sloppy conditions would force Jefferson to limit its fancy playbook, or risk turning a complex offense into a turnover problem, and give Herky High its only viable path to winning 4 quarters. Soggy turf (artificial or real) would give that hulking HHS underclass a chance to hydroplane Jefferson’s older linemen off the football, senior biceps or not. Most importantly, JHS couldn’t use its superior WR speed to blow the game open.
We’ll be making Jefferson at Herculaneum our “Turbo-Clock-Operator-Is-Upset Special” for Week 3. Calling for a close game at HHS has to work out better than picking Cuba over Grandview…unless Francene arrives late for Friday’s date.