“The Karate Kid” is turning 40 years old, and it’s fascinating to observe how Americans had Martial Arts so “bass-ackwards” as they say, so plainly and demonstrably wrong on dual counts back in the day. We thought the dumbest thing about the “The Karate Kid” was how every student from a campus in SoCal was wild about going to a U-18 Karate Tournament – not hyped about going to watch the Lakers or the Rams or the Kings, but bonkers about a ticket to a KARATE TOURNAMENT. Meanwhile, Mr. Miyagi’s “One True Way” Martial Arts fighting method was taken super seriously, to the point where NFL linemen began to take Karate and Kung-Fu courses, believing that having their own “Mr. Miyagi” sensei would help them blast past opposing blockers on the pro gridiron.
How true did those beliefs turn out to be? In a word: HA. Mixed Martial Arts superstars like Conor MacGregor and Ronda Rousey are so popular and famous today that The Geek often uses “Ronda Rousey” rather than “Mike Tyson” when comparing football storylines to a prizefight’s drama. There’s a lot more than ONE campus where students can be found yapping away about UFC and Martial Arts these days. But at the same time, Mr. Miyagi’s “One True Way” method has proven 100% useless against Mixed Martial Arts, and hapless against any old mix of striking and wrestling. Once a month, a “One True Way” Judo or Kung-Fu expert from China challenges a Mixed Martial Artist’s “50 Fake Ways” in the Octagon, pitting one small, precise move set against powerhouse strikes and holds which are begged, borrowed, and stolen from Boxing and Jiu-Jitsu and a million other fighting concepts. It lasts about 15 seconds, and the Mr. Miyagi “One True Way” fighter lands on their “One True Butt” for a TKO.
Readers know The Geek wouldn’t bring up something like that unless relating it to football. But we’re not going to label Mississippi Magazine “bass-ackwards” about this season, are we? Not when TGG has been proven right again and again? It was this blog that threw out the dire preseason predictions of local media and called for a banner year of county pigskin, and a banner year it has been. Seckman was supposed to be the poster-child for 2023’s decay and defeat on Friday nights, due to Cole Ruble’s absence. Genuine sympathy goes out to any of the 9-0 Jaguars’ opponents who took that crap seriously. Hillsboro High was a brand that the Jefferson County Leader marked for this fall’s supposed “talent drain,” but the Hawks have gone 8-1 and have not lost to any public school since 2021. Jefferson, St. Pius, and Crystal City have combined to win nearly 20 times so far, and Herculaneum – in undeniable danger of laying an egg with a lineup of new kids – manufactured a miracle of a #4 seed and a home playoff game.
Nope, it was the rest of the local media that had the 2023 season bass-ackwards. But TGG has whiffed on a longer-term story, a dose of bad news that it’s better to rip the Band-Aid off now instead of once we dig into this year’s MSHSAA brackets. Mississippi Magazine has had its own stupid “Nobody would pay to see Martial Arts” moment for sure, it’s just been a slow-motion “moment” lasting for most of the 2020s. The fact is, we were optimistic about another matter that turned out to be a royal mess after all.
MSHSAA’s brave “promotion” rule for private schools has not yet had the effect on the playoffs we’d hoped for. There remain All-Star football factories hiding in the small-school brackets, a factor that could potentially ruin all 3 of the county’s promising Class 2 bids. (Duchesne’s Class 1 bid from 2022 shows that not even the smallest division has been cleaned out completely.) Meanwhile, teams who aren’t used to dealing with the Cardinal Ritter-s and Valle University-s of the world are now being tasked to outperform those programs in the higher weight classes, for all the good it will do them. Like college football teams that move into a more prestigious conference, it seems like the factory programs just grow stronger once they’re promoted to play against Hillsboro or Festus. Valle University’s lineup that barely beat SPX in 2018 could never have gone 3-1 vs ranked large schools in consecutive years.
Who is safe from the scourge? Crystal City’s only got St. Vincent, an honest brand that’s built on neighborhood kids, in its Class 1 District. Those 9 schools will get a fair shake. We cannot say the same about Class 2’s local District, though Priory is another honest private-school team and Lift For Life is simply a weird case. The one private school in Herky’s bracket has gone kaput, and there are no artificial rosters within our Class 4 schools’ Districts, though whichever C4 team wins Hillsboro or Festus versus the Sullivan Eagles the District 1 vs District 2 MSHSAA Quarterfinal in Week 13 will surely have to deal with Lutheran North in the semifinal round to come.
CBC, DeSmet, and SLUH are all NOT in the Seckman Jaguars’ Class 6 District. THAT’S good. But the Fox Warriors’ C5 District includes the “1-7” private school St. Mary’s, which faced an impossible schedule of STL’s Godzilla teams this fall after making a final Class 4 Show-Me Bowl run in 2022. St. Mary’s looks bound for a trip to Arnold in Week 10, 3 weeks after battling Columbia Rock Bridge to a 28-21 outcome. Fox still has a chance to advance, but the Dragons could also blow up District 1 as a #6 seed.
Our very best teams could avoid division-killers until Weeks 13 and 14. But there’s also an element of random luck in this year’s District draw, like throwing a bunch of darts at the Top 25. It doesn’t have much to do with a team’s quality – if you got hit by an unlucky draw then you’re probably destined for the basketball gym right away. And, if not, you had better take advantage.
Let’s dive into 2023’s playoff brackets, to see whose neighborhood has a shot to avoid, surpass, or even just beat a football factory this November…and which brands are bound for the assembly line of Ifs, Buts, and Woulda-Coulda-Shouldas.
2023 District Playoff Preview: Class 1 Through Class 6 Bracket, Outlook, and Quarterfinal Match-Ups
Class 1, District 2
(Week 10 Play-In Game – Friday, October 27th)
#8 Russellville Indians vs #9 Fayette Falcons
Week 10 Byes:
#1 St. Vincent Indians
#2 Crystal City Hornets
#3 Tipton Cardinals
#4 Van-Far Indians
#5 Chaffee Red Devils
#6 Louisiana Bulldogs
#7 Harrisburg Bulldogs
Mississippi Magazine told the Crystal City Hornets that 2023’s team would be overachieving if it reached Week 13, and would be underachieving if it fell to elimination by Week 11. Strike that. We can pass a verdict on the ’23 Hornets effort through just 9 weeks, and it’s not a glad one. CCHS pigskin – and its coaching staff – has laid an egg since having a breakout performance on Homecoming Friday. Exhibit A was needing a Forfeit win just to go 1-1 over the prior 2 weeks. Exhibit B was Herky’s single, last-second touchdown from Week 9 prevailing over a sick, sad, scoreless version of the Sunken Place offense last Friday night.
At least a 6-3 season of weird final scores and weirder lapses is now in rearview. The Class 1 playoffs offer a chance for the CCHS Hornets to reset, win football games at home again, and get their mojo back.
Districts also give Crystal City’s coach a chance to turn a total 180. Let’s pray that he’s done so already.
Dan Fox’s coaching staff made a cardinal-sin of a mistake in Week 9, deciding to replace a (100% healthy, by all accounts) Nolan Eisenbeis behind center with the sophomore QB/TE Cale Schaumburg. There WAS in fact “rhyme or reason” to Fox’s blunder, as the move appears to have been prompted by the Hornets having lost Camden Mayes’ services on the outside in Week 9. Maybe Fox felt that by replacing Mayes at WR with the electric Eisenbeis, who played all kinds of positions instead of quarterback, then the offense would carry on as normal with the talented Schaumburg at the helm versus a defensive team like HHS.
It was an idea. It was also a VERY BAD IDEA, and should have been scrapped by halftime. Fox’s team presumably just spent 2 weeks on practice fields learning how to lose, and by its own coach’s hand. Cale Schaumburg, as The Geek will probably wind up repeating 600 times over the next 12 days, played better in his first stab at a big-time Varsity start than Festus QB Cole Rickermann. Schaumburg will make a fantastic option-style QB for Crystal City when the time comes. That time was NOT Friday night. Cale’s inexperience began to show once CCHS’s first drives into the Red Zone went awry, and any spectacular passing attack promised by a 5-wide look on the opening series fizzled away quickly following the Hornets’ first incomplete pass. As the rivalry scrum wore on and Herculaneum’s defense gained confidence, the Crystal City kids started to panic, and the team’s fatal fumble-itis returned.
Kanden Bolton, who scored 3 times in a 400-yard performance against HHS last season, kicked the ball out of bounds for a safety-first infraction after dropping a badly-timed lateral in the 3rd quarter. Bolton, in what may be The Geek’s most shocking news to have to report this year, finished the rest of the game healthy WITHOUT EVER TOUCHING THE BALL AGAIN. The 4.6-40 senior rusher who’s averaging 15+ yards disappeared from Crystal City’s plans, while the star QB and a Tight End awkwardly switched places.
It was a Freaky Friday. Dan Fox’s Crystal City Hornets were out-of-position, out-of-sorts, and all out of points as another sloppy scrum ended. They say that a low-scoring win like “6-0” comes without highlights to report on (see Nevada’s 6-0 win over San Diego State last weekend, which did in fact serve a “Northwest vs Mehlville” purpose in getting the Wolf Pack back into the W column) but Herculaneum’s heroic winning TD from Week 9 marks the second year in a row in which the wonderful new/old HHS-CCHS rivalry has been decided with an historic play good for 6 points. In the aftermath, Herky’s skipper Blane Boss looks like a wicked sort of genius compared to Fox, who has blown up his own team’s form in a span of 3 weeks.
Maybe it’s lame of The Gridiron Geek to criticize our coaches’ Xs and Os. Coach Fox could draw circles around TGG on a whiteboard or a telestrator, there’s absolutely no doubt about that. However, The Geek knows his STRATEGY just fine, and everyone knows that a football team shouldn’t build itself around the wide receiver position. That’s why the New England Patriots treated Randy Moss like a luxury, not a need, despite Randy Moss’ standing as perhaps the greatest downfield-threat receiver in NFL history. The injured Mayes’ overall contribution to CCHS football is priceless, and we hope against hope that he returns for Week 11. Mayes’ contribution as a WR is limited by comparison, since Crystal City attempts so few passes. Blowing up the works to replace the receiver role was a disaster, and underscores how Crystal City’s weird, horrendous game plan put Fox’s best athletes far from where they could make any difference. CCHS looked like a Jamboree Week team against Herky even though its postseason is now less than 2 weeks away, and momentum can mean everything in a season like this one.
Crystal City somehow retains the top-2 playoff seed it was hunting for, even at 6-3. But with the #2 seed comes what now feels like a scary Q-Final matchup against Harrisburg, a #7 team with a “Chaffee” level defense and a fast, furious “St. Pius” level offense. If Crystal wants to even sniff the postseason run that Mississippi Magazine thought the 2023 Hornets had within them, it’s 100% imperative for Coach Fox to REMEMBER THERE’S A BRAND NEW STAR QB ON THE TEAM who should be playing quarterback. One month isn’t too long ago for the CCHS Hornets to remember what Weeks 5 and 6 felt like.
We’re opposed to the sort of billboard campaigns that helped get Tim Tebow kicked out of the NFL at an early age, but if head coach Dan Fox so much as purchases a small coffee anywhere on Main Street this weekend, his receipt should read:
Dear Coach
Please bonk yourself in the bugle, and then put everything back just the way it was on Homecoming, with or without the wide receivers. Time is running short. Cream, sugar, and napkins on counter.
Total 1.79 – Thank You
Class 2, District 2
(Quarterfinal Round – Friday, October 27th & Saturday, October 28th)
#1 Jefferson (Festus) Blue Jays (Bye)
#2 Lift for Life Hawks vs #7 Grandview (Hillsboro) Eagles
#3 Hermann Bearcats vs #6 Montgomery County Wildcats
#4 St. Pius X (Festus) Lancers vs #5 Priory Ravens
It’s hard to overlook the Hermann Bearcats, the Little Engine That Could when it comes to playing and defeating Large School big-shots without any private-school advantages. Hermann beat Sullivan, a team that spent Week 9 whipping North County by 26 points, by a dramatic 36-35 score just a week prior to upsetting St. Clair in another single-point outcome. The #3 seeded Varsity Bearcats fell back against Union and Pacific (you might say that Hermann was “railroaded” like that, ah ha ha, ah ha) to finish 6-3, but wow, talk about weighted-bat training.
Hermann’s rise gives Class 2, District 1 a dynamic duo of teams who’re playing at a Class 4 contender’s level, when the Bearcats’ bid is combined with the #2 seeded Lift For Life Hawks. Lift For Life Motorized Scooter Company is a scary opponent to have lurking in the small-school brackets from year to year, since the Hawks’ Charter school cannot be “promoted” to Class 3 or 4 and still manages to assemble its share of talent from alternative zip codes. However, just as Hermann’s season-opening loss to rural Montgomery County demonstrates how the Bearcats could still be vulnerable against Class 2, Lift For Life’s issues with consistency could derail its District run.
Jefferson County’s draw is as lucky as it could possibly be in a District full of dangerous teams…with exception of one unlucky side that just can’t catch a break this season. Grandview’s surprise blow-out loss to Chaffee may have marked a breaking point for the wounded Birds of Prey, whose head coach Jason Kimminau was finally forced to admit to the Eagles’ injury woes on Regional Radio after the loss last Friday. GHS’ only consolation is that the sudden downturn (another one!) from Week 9 isn’t the reason Grandview has a bad draw. With the Hermann Bearcats and Lift For Life Hawks in #2 and #3, only the #1 and the middle seeds are safe from the gauntlet.
Enter the Jefferson Blue Jays and St. Pius Lancers, who couldn’t have dreamed of berths so favorable in a bracket that’s loaded with contenders all the way down to #6. We wrote earlier in fall that the only way St. Pius or Jefferson can win a Class 2 District Championship is for the winner of a Week 11 rematch to play either Hermann or Lift For Life once the Hawks and Bearcats beat up on each other in their own semifinal bout. It’s still a hard row to hoe, however the #1 and #4 seedings make it very possible, if the Lancers only get through Priory this weekend. Jefferson’s got a bye week to get over an 0-2 finish, but SPX has momentum after crushing Perryville.
Priory has had a few promising results against a tough schedule this year, such as having resisted a Turbo Clock against Country Day, and playing 4 competitive frames with John Burroughs. But the Ravens labored to get around Lutheran South, a nickel-and-dime lineup that the St. Pius Lancers embarrassed in their summer Jamboree.
Class 3, District 1
(Quarterfinal Round – Friday, October 27th)
#1 Central (Park Hills) Rebels (Bye)
#2 Dexter Bearcats (Bye)
#3 Ste Genevieve Dragons vs #6 Fredericktown Blackcats
#4 Herculaneum Blackcats vs #5 Kennett Indians
The Herky Blackcats have made their 2023 season legit by sheer force of will. Keaton Reeves’ winning TD pass to receiver Clark Struckhoff didn’t just rescue Dunklin against rival Crystal City, it rescued the Herculaneum vs Crystal City game itself from being a complete snoozer. But the fact that Herky’s big win lacked some style points doesn’t concern The Geek in the least. By hook or crook, the Blackcats are hosting a playoff game against a legitimate Class 3 opponent that got seeded a slot lower than 4-5 HHS. That, padawans, is nothing short of a miracle.
There’s no doubt HC Blane Boss’ hardball tactic of questioning the Blackcats’ desire to win paid off on the field in Week 9. The Geek’s only question is how the head coach reacted to the victory in front of his players, since Regional Radio’s interview of the Herculaneum coach was of the usual “I’m glad for our seniors” variety.
Did Coach Boss go to his team at 10 PM and say the 3 simple words, “I was wrong?” Something tells TGG that he’d better have done that. It would be hard to trust a head coach who wouldn’t admit to that after trashing his team’s captains on the radio in Week 8. Herky did something special knocking off CCHS, even if the score was 2-0. Herculaneum’s struggling attack isn’t favored to outscore Kennett, but don’t put anything past the Felines.
#1 District seed Park Hills Central is deadly in a bracket of all public schools, and could take advantage of a relatively “clean” and fair Class 3 region to make a deep run into the November playoffs.
Class 4, District 1
(Quarterfinal Round – Friday, October 27th)
#1 Hillsboro Hawks (Bye)
#2 Festus Tigers vs #7 DeSoto Dragons
#3 Perryville Pirates vs #6 Sikeston Bulldogs
#4 North County Raiders vs #5 Potosi Trojans
St. Pius head coach Frank Ray, who thinks The Geek’s short previews are the real genius of Mississippi Magazine (since those so often predict another SPX blow-out), will be pleased with our Class 4 playoff “coverage” today. We don’t mean any disrespect toward the #3 through #7 programs in Class 4, District 1, so TGG (AHEM!) will clear his throat and just say that MSHSAA has outdone itself creating a District bracket of MIS-matches this time. “District Previews” for Class 4 will make more sense once the Q-Finals have whittled out some of the royal riff-raff.
There’s no reason to forecast Hillsboro and Festus in the playoffs now. For those teams, the playoff season hasn’t really begun yet, even though R-6 shall host the DeSoto Dragons in the Q-Final round this Friday. HHS and FHS stand as “predetermined” District Championship Game rivals because of the great seasons they’re having, but additionally because the District 1 field is so thin that it’s actually hard to believe on paper. Maybe the Friday postseason scores will tear that “paper” up, but it’s hard to look at C4D1 and not foresee any thrashings.
It’s not just the #1 and #2 seeds who’ll be bringing the pain. North County pulled Potosi into a lopsided loss in the regular season, and Perryville could blow-out the sorry Sikeston Bulldogs in Round 1 even as the Varsity Pirates rebound from their own 51-point loss to (gulp) Class 2 last Friday. Festus defeated Farmington by 40+ points and worried Jackson in the 3rd quarter, making it possible that the #7 DeSoto Dragons will not escape the first 10:00 at Midmeadow Lane without an 0-28 deficit. Hillsboro needs to be wary of just ONE angle concerning the North County Raiders, who will probably visit Leon Hall again in Week 11…but we’ll get looking at that probable matchup in due time. There’s a lot of news on Festus and Hillsboro – starting with TREY LACEY IS DOING OKAY – and a lot of suspenseful days to report all of it in, considering how Week 12’s tickets are practically on sale already.
Class 4, District 2
(Quarterfinal Round – Friday, October 27th)
#1 Sullivan Eagles (Bye)
#2 Pacific Indians vs #7 Affton Cougars
#3 Gateway Jaguars vs #6 Roosevelt/Carnahan Roughriders
#4 Union Wildcats vs #5 Windsor (Imperial) Owls
Class 4, District 2 could be “thinnest” of all in a weird way, since there isn’t anyone with the high ceiling of a Hillsboro ’23 (or ’22) to be found in spite of several solid rosters dotting the division through seed #5. Sullivan’s 40-14 victory over North County was LUCKY in a way that The Geek will dive more into in Hillsboro’s semifinal prediction, but suffice to say the Eagles look a notch below Class 4’s real top tier, and that also goes for Pacific and Union.
So do the Albino Birds have a chance at Union High on Friday? Union lost 42-12 to the same St. Clair Bulldogs who couldn’t beat Hermann of Class 2. That’s a good sign. Then again, Windsor had its own pratfall against St. Clair in Week 8, and Union did rebound to beat 2 teams including the HHS Bearcats late in the reason. A more hopeful scouting note for WHS is that Union’s team is not too much different from North County’s lineup in 2023, and Windsor’s best game of this autumn’s regular season was an 8-point loss to the Bonne Terre Buccaneers.
Class 5, District 1
(Quarterfinal Round – Friday, October 27th)
#1 Poplar Bluff Mules (Bye)
#2 Central (Cape Girardeau) Tigers vs #7 Mehlville Panthers
#3 Fox Warriors vs #6 St. Mary’s South Side Dragons
#4 Webster Groves Statesmen vs #5 Farmington Knights
Fox has a path to the District Championship Game too, whether or not Week 9 went to the Warriors’ liking against Ladue. The #1 through #5 seeds of C5D1 are littered with beatable teams. The only problem is that Fox has to advance through 2022’s Class 4 kingpin St. Mary’s, in a Q-Final that will teach us a lot about Missouri football.
Is St. Mary’s 1-7 win/loss record a mirage, caused by one of the hardest schedules in MSHSAA? On one hand, the Dragons are 0-7 against MSHSAA in 2023, with the Catholic school’s only win coming against Waterloo, IL. On the other, St. Mary’s fought with SLUH and Lutheran St. Charles in well-matched scrums early in the ’23 season, and forfeited the Dragons’ best chance to win a Missouri regular-season game against Duchesne. St. Mary’s simply hasn’t played enough public-school teams to be compared to our local Class 5 division until we get some hard evidence from Friday’s bout. All we really know is that St. Mary’s isn’t the dynamo it was at this time last year.
Class 6, District 1
(Week 10 Quarterfinal – Friday, October 27th)
#4 Oakville Tigers vs #5 Northwest (Cedar Hill) Lions
Week 10 Byes:
#1 Seckman Jaguars
#2 Jackson Indians
#3 Lindbergh Flyers
The Seckman vs Jackson clash for a 2023 Class 6 District Championship isn’t as set-in-stone as Festus-at-Hillsboro yet, but it’s getting there. Seckman sits out Week 10 before facing a steep underdog in Week 11’s semifinals, at which point all Jackson has to do is win for a 9th time this season in order to visit Imperial for the big party.
Seckman’s first and foremost goal this November isn’t (or shouldn’t be) to defeat Jackson – we’ll get to that in the more streamlined District previews to come. For now, The Geek can forecast that Jackson High is probably not going to be in shape to wallop SHS by an embarrassing score in the postseason again, as it did back in 2021. The Jaguars are very fundamentally sound from top-to-bottom, and could be poised to have success with a physical style of rushing attack against JHS following a tougher advance-through to the final round for the Indians. Jackson cannot avoid Lindbergh after the bye week, and the LHS Flyers have a mean dual-option game with QB Owen Norman and RB Victor Wheaton. Jackson probably won’t lose that game, but it won’t be very much fun, and Seckman has 2+ weeks to prepare to land a potential knock-out punch if Lindbergh softens up the Injuns.