T-1 – Seckman Jaguars

This week’s tied rankings on top of the Power Poll go against every traditional notion of covering the sport known as American Football. Seckman has a larger program than Hillsboro, in fact SHS enrollment numbers are so much higher that Seckman is 2 classes above Hillsboro this season. The Varsity Jaguars have the superior record at 8-0, have not been bothered beyond the 3rd quarter in any of 4 crucial victories over Fox, Pattonville, Oakville, and Valle U., and could make the best playoff run in school history. Hillsboro’s had a number of close calls against teams from campuses smaller than Pattonville’s or Arnold’s, banishing the Blue & White to at least #2 on the Power Poll from any would-be newspaper’s High School editorials.

Besides, if Tommy Gibbar was already upset over an “Honorable Mention” behind 4 county quarterbacks in 2023’s inaugural All-Star choices, he’s headed straight for Tanglefoot with a whoopin’ stick in hand now.

Yet the Mississippi Magazine is a democracy of one, and The Geek knows the mark of a team’s sky-high ceiling when he sees it. Hillsboro is like the “St. Pius” to Seckman’s “Festus” when trying to make the biggest large-school splash in the area, but the Hawks sure outplayed Seckman’s anxious win over Oakville last weekend. There’s nothing about Seckman’s season to suggest the Jaguars could stop a squad like Cardinal Ritter’s on 3 plays, then march down the field and score the first TD against Class 5’s likely Show-Me Bowl champions. For Oakville to have led SHS at the same point of the 1st quarter at which Hillsboro was leading over Cardinal Ritter – and for almost a whole 12:00 – looks suspect on Seckman and good on Hillsboro. In terms relative to the AWESOME years that each brand is having on the gridiron, that is, and in no other terms at all.

Seckman had an opportunity to go against the elite public-school teams of St. Louis in the ’22 District playoffs, and produced only a 1-1 record. Cardinal Ritter had whitewashed SLUH by a Turbo Clock score just weeks before the Jaguars and Junior Billikens played a well-booked game in the ’22 District Q-Finals. Put simply, an All-Star team like Ritter is a cut above anyone Seckman has played, and the Jaguars would/will have to demonstrate that they can come within 2 touchdowns of a semi-NCAA lineup, the way Hillsboro just did. We assume just about any county team would lose to Show-Me Bowl competition by 35+ points until proven otherwise. Hillsboro didn’t get a W in Week 8, but wow, did the Varsity Hawks just prove otherwise.

There’s still something to be said for putting games away in the first 36:00, and has undefeated Seckman been doing plenty of that! Imperial’s Class of 2024 underclassmen from 2022, who once joined in scrawling “Jackson” on SHS’s weight-room walls, should finally be about to get another shot at the juggernaut JHS Indians in Week 12. However, thanks to Seckman’s insane regular-season success, Jackson is actually the #2 seed in the 5-team field, and will face the tough Lindbergh Flyers first.

T-1 – Hillsboro Hawks

The Geek continues to hear murmurs – even from his pals – that county pigskin “just doesn’t have any talent” this season. At first, it was easy enough to think the opening weekend’s 9-1 record in out-of-county kickoffs was just a fluke, some type of weird Friday in the schedule where the easy opponents got easier and the tougher ones lost their teeth. We have waited a while to shout it proudly, but the wrong-ness of local football’s haters is no longer just an opinion at Mississippi Magazine.

Let’s go over some numbers, shall we? The top 3 teams of Jefferson County are 20-1 against public schools this season, and 22-3 overall. That “-1” defeat against public schools was also not avoidable, since it came when #2 Hillsboro beat #3 Festus in Week 5! If you remove Fox as a Class 5 school having a modest year (sorry, Arnold) and look at Jefferson County’s top 6 most successful teams in 2023, as in Hillsboro, Seckman, Jefferson, St. Pius X, Crystal City and good old Alma Mater, those schools are a whopping THIRTY NINE in the W column and NINE in the L column. Single digit losses. 39-9. The top half of our county football teams, ladies and gentlemen, are racking up a slam-bang stupendous .800 winning percentage in 2023. 

Whoa. At a certain point, there’s no more argument about statistics like that. Are the top 6 teams in Washington County, Franklin County, Ste. Genevieve County, or any old county not based in St. Louis or Kansas City 39-9 this year? Maybe in some locale where there’s 18-to-24 teams, and they all play each other. We don’t really have to check Webb City’s entire county, not any more than we need to check on Webb City’s football kids. (The Geek repeats himself.) Park Hills Central is never surrounded by 5 other local teams averaging 4-out-of-5 wins versus 1-out-of-5 losses. Neither is Cape Girardeau Central, since there are only so many Class 2 programs as fierce as Scott City to go around in this world. Mississippi Magazine said it earlier in 2023 and will stand by it – if the Dirty Dozen is down, our opponents must be WAY down.

HHS’s second straight good game vs Cardinal Ritter – FLIPPIN’ CARDINAL RITTER – nails the coffin shut on that “no talent” stuff. Do people think a totally blue-collar team with no exceptional talent could play a Show-Me Bowl level crew from a higher weight class and win the 1st quarter, just for the heck of it?! Maybe that’s how it goes in the movies. In real life, the fact that Hillsboro’s not the only local team that’s close to Hillsboro’s level is what’s scary-cool about the TALENT on county turf in 2023. If the #1 Cardinal Ritter Lions couldn’t blow out a Mississippi Magazine club ranked #2 in our local rankings alone, it suggests that Seckman or Hillsboro losing with Tommy Gibbar and Preston Brown at QB respectively is the real “fluke,” not to mention Jefferson’s rare blow-out defeat to Class 3. At this point, if people want to call the Hawks untalented, they’ll be like this guy:

Festus and Hillsboro still appear to be on a collision course to the District Championship Game in Week 12. The Hawks are going to draw North County, it would seem, in their first playoff game of November, though that break is less bad news than it sounds because NCHS is having a bummer 2023. Otherwise, the Buccaneers would not be rated below Perryville in C4D1. Perryville’s season has been just spectacular compared to what PHS is used to, but the Pirates’ presence at #3 among 7 schools in the field shows how thin District 1 has turned out, and why Week 12 feels like a sure-thing rematch already.

Week 9 opponent Poplar Bluff comes in on a 4-game win streak. Lucky for Hillsboro, the Varsity Mules are as much of a mystery as the Farmington Black Knights of ’23. Un–lucky for Hillsboro is that PBHS’s shaky consistency this fall doesn’t mean that another Class 5 team will trudge into a Mississippi Conference match-up and lose by 42 points. Poplar Bluff beat Cape Girardeau and had a reasonably good game with Jackson this season, but the Mules’ victory from Week 8 doesn’t tell us much, especially since PBHS labored to Turbo Clock a Kennett crew that won’t be a sure winner vs Herky in Week 10.

Photo Credit: Paul Stuthers

#3 – Festus Tigers

Festus falls in at a not-so-distant #3. In fact, we considered ranking Festus High at “#2” this week just to show how close the Tigers are getting to Seckman and Hillsboro’s level of profound success. The Black & Gold’s first and second-string defenses have allowed 0 meaningful TDs in 2 games, and held Farmington’s typically mean offense to less than 100 total yards. The boys have a District draw that looks just as promising as Hillsboro’s easy road to the C4D1 District Championship Game, opposing only Perryville or Sikeston (most likely Perryville) after facing the outmatched DeSoto Dragons on Week 10.

It’s nice that Midmeadow Lane looks bound for another peck at Hillsboro, because Festus R-6 gave new meaning to the term “own worst enemy” in Week 5’s try. But do the Tigers have a chance to make a statement that would get Leon Hall’s attention prior to November 10’s grudge match? Pacific and Farmington don’t qualify, since everyone is used to watching Festus beat Pacific (if under duress), and the Farmington Black Knights didn’t come into Week 8 at 100% full strength. Perryville won’t be considered as tough of a District Semifinal opponent as North County, even if PHS finally looks like the Class 4 brand it’s supposed to be. Black & Gold will go into the Q-Finals under “pressure” in the sense that they’re expected to win by 56.

It could be that Festus is the county team suffering from “Alabama” syndrome in ’23. If an SEC school like Kentucky happened to play Georgia and Alabama in its first 2 conference games, while opening with a 2-1 record out-of-conference, pundits would still run down any pair of run-away wins for the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs by saying, “It’s not a big deal to blow-out Kentucky. Heck, the Wildcats are only 2-3, with 2 blow-out losses!” In other words, a school can become good enough at football that it makes a tough schedule look weak, especially while that “blow-out loss to Festus” is still fresh in the opposing school’s mind. Consider that even some of the Pacific Indians’ worst lineups have caused problems for Black & Gold in the past. The 2022 Farmington Black Knights’ season was nothing to write home (or Park Hills) about, but Farmington still seemed like a well-matched rival in last year’s contest. The improved Knights sure didn’t look very “well-matched” at FHS last weekend. But eschewing any other reason, the sour W/L records of Farmington and Pacific are helping to hold R-6 out of the Top 10.

Enter the ’23 Jackson Indians, who we’ll take a close look at in this week’s Friday Night Predictions. Jackson is undefeated against Missouri teams this season and would also (at least) hold its own in a Show-Me Bowl against Cardinal Ritter. The Jackson meeting will give R-6’s high-octane offense a chance to shine against a Class 6 powerhouse. The Geek has a growing hunch, though, that another Varsity Tigers unit has an even better shot to make Week 9 into a statement.

#4 – Fox Warriors

Arnold will take its next kick-at-the-can against a highly rated side vs Ladue High on Friday. But while the Fox Warriors of this early fall’s 5-game losing streak were in no condition to face a Ladue type of program, the Varsity Rams themselves do not appear to be a “Ladue type of program” in the Year Of Our Lord 2023. Ladue has labored to beat Oakville 40-33, lost to the Ritenour Huskies by a worse margin that Fox, and sits 4-4 vs what would’ve been a 7-1 slate for the Rams in many years.

#5 – Jefferson Blue Jays

Jefferson’s skipper Matt Atley was 10 times wiser than Herky’s disgruntled HC Blane Boss after taking a similar blow-out loss to St. Genevieve, one which spoiled the Blue Jays’ bid for a perfect 9-0 regular season. Atley appears to have quietly told JHS’s troops that disaster-defeats are not always avoidable for any football team, even an undefeated one, and that the difference between a bad Week 8 and a valuable Week 8 is as simple as the ‘Jays pledging to learn from the episode.

But there’s a not-always-avoidable bug in the drink when a coach tells a team to ponder that one. What if the team “learns” some things that aren’t all good? The Jefferson Blue Jays may have think that they “learned” all about Class 3’s superiority at the line of scrimmage, having lost their fight in the trenches so roundly for 3 quarters against the retooled STG Dragons.

Blue Jay Way (yes, Jefferson High is cool enough to give its campus a Magical Mystery Tour tribute) must remember that in the 2023 season of special QBs and Quadruple-Option offense across the area, Hillsboro is Doctor Evil and the Jefferson Blue Jays are Mini-Me. Like the Russia and Belarus men’s ice hockey teams (or Team Switzerland and the New Jersey Devils), the Varsity Hawks and their most successful stylistic “branch” at Jefferson R-7 share tendencies on the field. Except, recall that this is really the first season in which Jefferson has gone full-steam ahead on a 3-level passing offense and even a Pistol scrimmage snap for Kole Williams. When the Hillsboro Hawks were still working to adjust their playbook to what HC Bill Sucharski wanted in 2020-21, it was still common for Blue & White to lose bigly to slightly larger opponents like Cape Girardeau. It didn’t mean Hillsboro wasn’t a threat against foes closer to its own size in the playoffs, as FHS learned.

Class 5’s Oakville (and Class 5’s Poplar Bluff) defeated the 2017 Hillsboro Hawks, back when Leon Hall didn’t have the kind of quality “numbers” that it does now. But by November of that season, the Hawks had shown (as the Jefferson Blue Jays have shown in other years) that you can BUILD quality depth on the practice field if enough youngsters have the light come on before Districts roll around. Hillsboro played in a landmark State Q-Final against Ladue and nearly won the bout with a miraculous late comeback, less than 2 months after losing the 1st half in an embarrassing show against 3-7 Festus.

We ought not to be surprised if Jefferson bounces right back against St. Vincent in Friday’s I-55 championship match. That’s one forecast on a St. Vincent scrum that The Geek isn’t scared to make.

#6 – St. Pius Lancers

SPX’s early season bid took off like a rocket from Cape Canaveral, and then crash landed with a 2-game-swing voluntary Forfeit and a 5-touchdown loss at St. Vincent. Where do the St. Pius Lancers go from here?

The Lancers’ limp pass defense of Week 8 will get a do-over of sorts against Perryville this Friday. PHS tossed 24 more passes in last week’s 50-0 whitewash of Herculaneum. Pirate quarterback Rilaynd Graham has an unofficial passer rating of 97 for 2023, and PHS’s 4-4 record is also solid compared to where the green-clad group has been in previous years. But we found out when St. Vincent clobbered Perryville in September that the Pirates don’t have quite the defense that STV does. That’s a glowing opportunity. Better defense from Hill Valley in Week 9 would be rewarded with many chances to score.

T-7 – Crystal City Hornets

Crystal City’s lineup has stayed remarkably healthy this season, with only a few wounds you’d call “annoying” compared to Herky’s midseason “catastrophe.” But it’s the mental side of pigskin which has let CCHS down a couple of times in 2023. The Hornets developed “fumble-itis” in Week 2 right after checking a Chaffee side that’s turned out to be much more solid that anyone had dreamed. Later, the Class 1 contenders were reminded that they can’t always win the same way on a rival’s natural grass as on the fast track of the Sunken Place. Finally, this week, there’s a “grudge match” that really isn’t one.

We’d all love to see a rematch of Herky and Crystal City’s thrill-a-minute showdown from 2022. When an opponent is totally new and different, though, it’s hard to prepare for a grudge-match style return bout, because you don’t recognize the team that’s standing across from you. That’s not always a good thing, even if the opponent in question is having a downturn.

For example, there was no excuse for Festus to beat DeSoto and Hillsboro by about the same number of points in R-6’s championship season of 2020. Hillsboro outpaced DeSoto by 67 combined points in 2020-21 in spite of having a COVID-19 rest disadvantage against Joachim Junction in the earlier of the 2 seasons. But it so happened that DeSoto had scored an upset win at Midmeadow Lane in 2019, and the Black & Gold was out for revenge the next year. Except that the sagging, sinking DeSoto Dragons under former coach Chris Johnson debuted as a disaster in 2020, with even the North County JV manufacturing points (and a shut-out) over the Varsity Dragons. Festus was touted to defeat DeSoto easily, as opposed to “rematch” style newspaper hype that would have otherwise played-up DeSoto’s road win from the campaign prior. Flat and unmotivated, the Tigers realized too late that DeSoto’s “strangers” were just as dangerous as the familiar club from 2019, pressed into playing Austin Anderson for 48:00 of a sloppy win. We all recall how Anderson’s mega-minutes worked out.

CCHS wants all hands on deck for an important rivalry game with Week 11 implications. But a commanding 13+ point win would do more than just give Crystal City a leg-up on potential home field advantage for 2+ weeks of the postseason. Coach Dan Fox doesn’t want Kanden Bolton working OT to win the Herky game in OT – this time, Bolton’s heroics would be best saved for later. The suspense is that we don’t know whether HHS will be a hellish host or an easy mark this Friday.

T-7 – Windsor Owls

How is Windsor’s potential District Q-Final shaping up? Not half bad, but WHS will still need to swing over its head a little bit to grab that Week 11 berth of its dreams. Windsor’s lay up over Cuba this weekend should move “East Imperial” above Union, which may not be joining the Auto Workers’ Strike but will almost certainly strike-out and move to #5 in District 2 against sensational Hermann High in Week 9. The Wildcats are just 2-6 less than 3 full years after going to the C4 Final Four.

Sullivan is the only District 2 (Meramec + STL area) team out of 7 schools with a positive W/L record in 2023, because our Mississippi Magazine kids just don’t have any talent compared to other neighborhoods this season.

#9 – Grandview Eagles

Grandview’s best chance at a District Championship Game bid would be to play and win a rematch with high-seeded Jefferson in Week 10, then to draw against Priory or St. Pius X in Round 2. There are many pitfalls to that potential outcome, but it could happen if St. Vincent defeats Jefferson in Week 9’s unofficial I-55 Conference Championship, while Hermann High does the expected and beats 2-6 Union for yet another Varsity Bearcats win over Class 4 schools from west of STL. If those results occur, Jefferson may fall into the #2 seed and miss out on Week 10’s bye, hosting GHS in a fascinating rematch instead. Grandview, like it or not, should become a community of St. Vincent Indians boosters for exactly the next 3 days.

#10 – DeSoto Dragons

Russ Schmidt’s return to Festus R-6 as a Mississippi Conference head coach will be emotional. Before we get that far, what could be even more emotional for the DeSoto Dragons would be to claim a 2nd victory on the season in Week 9. We won’t count Orchard Farm as a shoo-in over a DeSoto team that just avoided a Turbo Clock outcome against Cape Girardeau. Flying to the moon is a shorter trip upward than the Dragons have taken since Schmidt arrived at DeSoto months ago.

T-11 – Herculaneum Blackcats

The Geek did some ranting about Herky football after Week 8. That ranting has gotten some raves. But we’re still nervous that there’s going to be some staunch Blane Boss defenders in the crowd when TGG visits the Herculaneum vs Crystal City game as usual. They’d be right to point out that Mississippi Magazine began the year touting Boss as a potential COTY for our fair publication, and that the blogger’s quick turn-around into tearing Coach Boss a new smokestack in Week 8 represents the media’s all-too-typical tendency to turn sour on a coaching staff fast, once things begin to go southward on the gridiron.

Technically, yes – but there’s a big fat difference this time. The Geek has no issue with Herculaneum’s brave effort on Friday nights in 2023, even if the coach does. We were criticizing CBB for not seeing the great, glistening bright side of having built a program that can withstand so many injuries without having to acquiesce to 100% losses or forfeit games altogether. Herky’s record in forfeited games this year is 1-0, which the coaches may think is “lucky,” but TGG thinks it’s because Herculaneum boasts more numbers than it used to, since losing half of an already depleted roster can cancel a small school’s season.

Herky’s not guaranteed to go 0-2 against Crystal City and Kennett, either. Yet it will be important for Coach Boss and his staff to set realistic goals before criticizing the kids for not reaching them. Much will depend on Damien Light’s availability.

T-11 – Northwest Lions

Jefferson County’s last Week 9 “Consolation Bowl” turned into an entertaining upset win for Crystal City over Grandview. Thankfully for Northwest, there should be no such surprise in Friday’s outcome against meager Mehlville, not if the Varsity Lions do a good job of putting last Friday night’s heartbreak behind them, and continue to work as hard as ever.