#1 – Seckman Jaguars
The Geek apologizes for calling Seckman “Seckman” in Week 4’s Friday Night Predictions. As readers know, our trademark is putting the nickname of each Jefferson County school (i.e. “Jaguars”) next to the official (i.e. “bad guy”) moniker of each out-of-county Varsity opponent next to the forecast. Maybe Mehlville’s slim-and-none chance to beat Imperial on Homecoming made Mississippi Magazine more sympathetic to the poor Panthers. But in any circumstance, we didn’t mean to make #1 feel otherwise singled-out.
This week’s Jefferson County Power Poll is supposed to be about 5-week schedules that remain in front of our home’s Dirty Dozen. That can’t apply to Seckman in full, though, since the 2023 Varsity Jaguars are so good as to produce their own rest-weeks (or at least 24:00 of extra rest for seniors) throughout the year as the quality of opponents goes up and down.
Pattonville has seemed sure to produce a dogfight in Week 7, and become the highest hurdle to a perfect 9-0 season in Imperial. After the outcomes of Week 5, we’re not so certain about that. Pattonville’s close-shave win over Lindbergh may have exposed just as many weaknesses as a loss to the Flyers would have, as Lindbergh rushed for 200+ yards, tossed 20-plus passes with a 60% completion rate and 2 TDs, and probably would have prevailed, except for a 90-yard scoop-and-score for PHS’s Jordan Ketl-Thomas.
The Warriors of Fox High, meanwhile, are poised to make the Jaguars scrap for every inch of gridiron this Friday night, after a heartening performance-in-defeat against a classy contender in Ritenour. It may be that a resounding Week 5 victory – if it comes – will point the way to a perfect 9-0 season for SHS.
#2 – Hillsboro Hawks
In the past, Hillsboro’s coaches have been pleased to see tough games scheduled in Weeks 6 through 9, often with the feeling that midseason conference bouts haven’t challenged the Hawks enough to develop a formidable style that can succeed in the postseason. This year, it’s a demonstrably different issue. HHS is “prepared” pretty well already.
Fans have a lot of fun watching Blue & White beat Cape Girardeau Central and Fort Zumwalt West in memorable games, victories that the less-evolved Hawks lineups of the 2000s and 2010s were unable to manufacture. But you wouldn’t want this particular Hillsboro club to fist-fight through an entire 9-game regular season’s worth of scrums like that. With little left to prove and a low-pressure occasion against Festus rather than the typical nail-biting anxiety at R-6, the Hillsboro Hawks should be grateful for the gaps in an otherwise high-intensity schedule. The goal is to get QB Preston Brown’s skilled ensemble cast to the postseason as healthy as 2022’s Romaine-Patterson-Medina nucleus was.
Cardinal Ritter is still Cardinal Ritter. Worse yet for the Hawks’ schedule in October, Poplar Bluff is Poplar Bluff-ing again, brewing up a higher-tempo offense in 2023. Last season’s PBHS Mules were an effective, but limited organization with the ball, but the Three Rivers kids have been averaging greater than 3 scores per game vs a schedule more brutal than HHS’s.
But it’s Week 5 in which Hillsboro can potentially clinch home-field advantage in the 2023 C4D1 Championship Game. And following the Festus scrap, winning will be easy for 2 weeks against the dregs of a thin Mississippi Conference.
#3 – Festus Tigers
Coach Russ Schmidt’s vision for the Festus Tigers was of an undersized Class 4 team (not “undersized” in linemen, necessarily, but existing on the small-enrollment end of Class 4’s bandwidth) that played hard football games against powerful teams in October, and upon breaking through and winning a few of them, would take a potential champion’s confidence into the playoffs. Now, Schmidt’s dream has at least half come true – for better or for worse – and Midmeadow Lane’s old coach has been at 2 other schools since ours.
Black & Gold boosters can forget about “High School” scoreboard watching, when we look for the margins-of-victory and individual stats to see how the boys are doing, instead of just hoping for Ws and cheering against losses, “NCAA” or “NFL” team style. That’s a thing of the past as of Week 5. The schedule is full of schools that can beat Festus easily with a good game. However, none are invincible. FHS could potentially beat them all. We’ll consider the Tigers’ W/L record the mark of success. How refreshing!
Hillsboro’s dynamic offense is the first big challenge, followed by a dangerous trip to North County. (Remember, the Bonne Terre Buccaneers defeated the Festus Tigers in 2021 despite losing their first Hillsboro scrum very badly.) Pacific High School, the Black & Gold’s typical “ceremonial” October match, is going to bring a rockin’ & rollin’ roster to Midmeadow Lane in Week 7, having just conquered the Union Wildcats in a 42-35 thriller last weekend. After the Indians, the Tigers meet a Farmington Black Knights team that scored (gulp) nearly half of a dozen times against the Jackson Indians this season. Then Senior Night against Jackson could be a struggle to score points at all.
We’ll spill all the beans on Festus and Hillsboro’s likely November collision course in this week’s Friday Night Predictions. For now, simply bear in mind that while Coach O desperately wants a winning record after 2 straight 6-win efforts, he also knows that a positive overall mark comes naturally when you advance in the playoffs. HHS and FHS are probable to play twice in 2023.
#4 – Fox Warriors
Fox’s schedule, currently as hard as a plutonium rock, should become easier once the Warriors are finished tussling with rival Seckman and powerhouse Poplar Bluff HS in Weeks 5 and 6. Week 7’s opponent Hazelwood West was recently stone-iced by the defenses of Pattonville and Eureka in about 20 combined turns with the ball. That doesn’t mean Hazelwood won’t score whatsoever against Fox’s developing defense, but the Warriors should manufacture some type of advantage on defense during the game.
Fox gets a manageable road trip to Park Place and Boardwalk Parkway South in Week 8. Even a Ladue High game on Senior Night doesn’t feel so daunting, considering the Ladue Rams’ performance over a 1-3 start. The vaunted Rams struggled to get past upstart Oakville while giving up 33 points in LHS’s first victory of the season last Friday. Them’s ain’t the Ladue Rams we know!
#5 – Jefferson Blue Jays
Great heavens. The next time a Jefferson assistant coach tells The Geek over the summer that he’s worried about the Blue Jays’ form, your author is NOT going to take it seriously. It’s looking as though the Jefferson Blue Jays will only require pulling-off one real upset (St. Genevieve) and has a clear path to 9-0 otherwise. Do local coaches disdain these kinds of predictions, or consider them a jinx? It’s better than forecasting a dismal 1-5 finish, we suppose.
#6 – St. Pius Lancers
The Geek’s complaint about head coach Frank Ray’s potential overuse of QB/DB/LB/EDGE/KR/PR James Smith of St. Pius X is largely academic for a while, since the Lancers will plow through most of their opponents in the opening half, and allow Smith to chew sunflower seeds on the sideline.
Herculaneum’s not in shape to take down Hill Valley in Week 5, and neither are upcoming opponents Cuba or Bayless. Challenging road trips to St. Vincent and Perryville will be Smith’s only opportunities to play 49:00 out of 48:00.
#7 – Crystal City Hornets
Perhaps MSHSAA set the tone with its “9-team single elimination” Class 1 brackets, but Crystal City’s schedule difficulty over the last 5 weeks is where things begin to get weird. Gateway Tech will be a beast for the Hornets to sting this Friday if for no other reason than the Jaguars’ Class 4 athleticism, but the unassailable Public High League power that CCHS had worried about hosting in Week 5 has not materialized. Neither has Russellville turned its prodigious size and depth into a worthwhile campaign yet in ’23. Instead of trying to manufacture upset Ws over a pair of giants, Crystal City’s midseason will become a task in trying to keep 2 fast, frustrated teams firmly on Earth.
But as we published in August, MSHSAA’s schedules giveth, and MSHSAA’s schedules taketh away. Van-Far appears to be a dangerous sleeper team in Crystal City’s District bracket (and on the regular-season schedule), with the added worry of having to get on board the Starship Enterprise, and set sail toward Van-Far’s galaxy in Week 7. Back in the Milky Way, a concerns over another potential forfeit-W from Missouri Military Academy prompted Coach Fox to schedule TDW Academy instead this Week 8 – another beatable foe, though Herculaneum’s bound to start getting healthy by HHS Senior Night.
#8 – Grandview Eagles
Now this is really weird. Grandview will be kicking off just as a lot of people are seeing this Power Poll tonight. We shouldn’t say anything about the Varsity Eagles right now. Heck, this ranking might prove inaccurate by 9 PM.
#9 – Windsor Owls
Windsor has an outside shot to contend against North County on home turf in Week 7. That could be what breaks the “Elevator Team” spell for Albino Birds in October, but not if WHS coaches use 2 players and 6 square feet of the field.
#10 – Herculaneum Blackcats
It’s so unfair to have to rank Herky at #10 because of devastating injuries. But there’s always a “Jeff Jenkins” around to get mad if we don’t go by the book.
#11 – DeSoto Dragons
DeSoto’s not yet to the point where any schedule looks “promising.” There’s the promise of potentially getting to 3-3 with a pair of victories over well-matched Windsor and Fredericktown, for instance, but it’ll be followed up by another couple of unwinnable “learning experience” games vs Hillsboro and CHS.
A fringe benefit of Class 4’s weak District 1 field is that DeSoto – believe it or not – could actually draw into a #4 vs #5 quarterfinal game in Week 10. A closely fought District game – win or lose – could well lead to a revelation in recruiting on-campus for Coach Schmidt, and mark 2023 as the year that Joachim Junction began to turn things around. That makes the next 2 engagements very important as far as the Dragons are concerned.
#12 – Northwest Lions
Parkway Central and Mehlville appear to be Northwest’s best chances to get a W on the board at last, with the bouts coming in Weeks 7 and 9 respectively.