Festus Tigers at Farmington Black Knights
MSHSAA reporters with 50+ games-per-week in their purview might describe Farmington vs Festus as a “clash of styles,” given that alma mater’s offense is now a high-octane Shotgun attack while the Black Knights still rely on the good old Paul Johnson playbook. However, there are a ton of similarities between the ’22 Farmington Black Knights and Festus Tigers when considered from a pure Friday night competitiveness POV. Tonight’s host FHS, much like the visitor FHS, began the season by allowing a bunch of “OLE!” touchdowns to a potential Division 1 phenom, North County’s tailback Jobe Smith in the Knights’ particular case. Farmington’s offense began to improve each week to compensate for a flawed defense (sound familiar?) but still couldn’t overcome a lack of game-control sufficiently to win at Poplar Bluff…and blew a lovely chance to get above .500 against a vulnerable team (yep, sure is familiar) in Cape Central in Week 6.
The Geek believes Festus R-6 could be better equipped to beat Farmington this time around, especially since the player who dominated last year’s battle – Jeremiah Cunningham – is now a starting QB for the FHS Tigers instead of an A-back for Farmington. But if you wanted to design an otherwise-500 team to be very difficult for the Black & Gold to trip right now, it might look a lot like the Black Knights. Defensively, the Tigers will have to make some heroic plays or slowly perish, and simple fundamentals are proving hard enough for a unit under pressure.
Festus’ woeful effort on kickoffs isn’t just a drag on the whole special-teams effort. It’s an invitation for Farmington to “moneyball” the Week 8 scrum. FHS, as per its form in 2022, will try a weak squib-kick that nets about 16 yards on the opening kickoff, allowing the Black Knights to use all 4 downs and plow for a TD. Poor field position, plus Farmington’s old-fashioned tactics, means that the Tigers will have 3 downs most of the time while the Black Knights are using 4. The only factor that could stop a majority of Knights drives could be turnovers or penalties, though that may be a pipe-dream as the hosts play with confidence behind a 3-season win streak in the rivalry. PREDICTION: FARMINGTON 38, TIGERS 28
Cardinal Ritter Lions at Hillsboro Hawks
Earlier this week, TGG’s pleasant walk at West City Park was interrupted by a friend’s speaker phone, over which a Hillsboro Middle School Football booster was practically screaming about how good a Cardinal Ritter player supposedly was – most likely the Lions’ leading rusher Marvin Burks. This fellow was so keyed-up about Burks’ 800-or-so yards rushing in 2022 that he sounded like a cross between Chris Farley’s “Interview Guy” and a pro wrestler pumping iron after 5 or 6 cups of coffee. “HE IS ALREADY GOING TO M-M-MICHIGAN! HARBAUGH SAID HE’S GONNA ST-ST-START HIM NEXT YEAR! HEEEEE’S A KILLERRRRRRR!”
We can only hope that the Hillsboro High School booster club is boosting the Varsity Hawks as much as the 8th-Grade contingent is hyping Cardinal Ritter on Homecoming. The Blue & White needs all the morale it can get prior to this kickoff. But it’s silly to be intimidated by any 1 player from a team like the Cardinal Ritter Lions, whose star players’ stats are inflated by circumstances.
If Burks, for instance, played for the Bayless Bronchos this season, he might have had a few 200-yard games, gotten hurt trying not to lose to I-55 Conference rivals by 50 points (just like talented Bayless RB Mark Patton), and not garnered 1/100th of his current buzz. The point is that Burks rushes alongside a supporting cast with NO weaknesses, for every position on the recruited assembled Cardinal Ritter depth-chart is filled with a quality student-athlete who’s gunning for an NCAA chance. Cardinal Ritter, worst of all, has arguably improved its form over the past several Fridays, not allowing a single TD vs mid-enrollment private school contenders.
But this blog isn’t ready to write-off Hillsboro’s chance to win and stay unbeaten, for the Hawks’ record through 7 games is actually quite comparable to what would happen if you dropped a “St. Mary’s” or “Cardinal Ritter” down smack in the middle of Class 4, District 1’s public-school division. (For perspective, Lutheran North’s Show-Me Bowl squad from 2018 beat Farmington 45 to 24.) Cardinal Ritter’s back-half rally over Duchesne back in September wasn’t fundamentally that different from Hillsboro’s 4th-quarter-landslide against Fort Zumwalt West. Hillsboro’s defense defended the Festus R-6 offense better than Valle University’s defense did, even though the dual-quarterbacks at FHS were further along in Week 5 than in Week 2. If Ritter played the Festus Tigers and led 35-7 in the 2nd quarter, everyone would say, “well, that figures.” But because a public school did it, everyone is too quick assuming that Hillsboro must be having a great year “against its rivals,” instead of correctly pinging the Varsity Hawks as a special team capable of special things.
Jaxin Patterson is Hillsboro’s “Marvin Burks,” but the Hawks’ opportunity on Homecoming lies in the fact that Patterson is far from alone in the HHS backfield. Hillsboro’s game-breakers won’t be “breaking” many long runs, and HC Bill Sucharski knows that in advance. But if every one of Payton Brown’s rushes (or his namesake’s rushes from the QB spot) gets just 3+ yards, obviating the need for Patterson to grind-out every 1st down, that HHS’s chance to make some hay.
Cardinal Ritter isn’t just handing the football off to Burks. The Lions are threatening to “Jackson” their way to a Class 3 state championship with a 1st-string passing offense that’s produced double-digit touchdowns and zero interceptions so far. Hillsboro coaches could make the mistake of putting Jax and Fresh in the A-B slot on almost every down, ala St. Pius’ use of Dabrein Moss against St. Vincent, and try to prevail “Navy”-style with a bunch of interminable TD drives to drain the clock. However, a superior option would be for Sucharski to do everything possible to set-up Hillsboro’s best defensive players to have a hell-raising night at Leon Hall. Cardinal Ritter’s turnover-less streak of critical drives can’t last forever.
The Varsity Lions haven’t faced a better 1-2-3 punch from a defense than Patterson, Romaine, and backup quarterback Griffin Ray – The Geek can promise you that. Cardinal Ritter’s only Achilles Heel – if there is one – could be that the Lions’ recruited assembled roster is full of starting-22 players to whom promises were made, just like when Jim Harbaugh welcomes an athlete to “M-M-Michigan.” They’re not used to facing the style of football team on which the entire lineup would rather win watching from the bench than lose while starring on the field, and on which the Division 1 athletes are willing to play offense, defense, special teams, and occasionally drive the floats, conduct the band, or join the cheerleaders. Hillsboro’s elite Iron Man contingent is a special weapon that could keep the scrum tight for a long time. PREDICTION: CARDINAL RITTER 42, ACTUAL HIGH SCHOOL TEAM 26
Herculaneum Blackcats at Perryville Pirates
The Crystal City Hornets got a freebie in Week 8 (no, it doesn’t make up for the chiseling of Week 6) as Missouri Military Academy has forfeited a series of games. (Kudos to MMA for scoring numerous meaningful TDs this year, and nearly winning a game, before taking a series of catastrophic DQs due to injury – or maybe bad grades as MMA is a reform-school after all – ala Grandview in 2017.)
That puts pressure on Herky to hold serve at Perryville, and get both old rivals staring at potential 9-10 win seasons prior to next Friday’s tilt at Sunken Place. PREDICTION: BLACKCATS 39, PERRYVILLE 14
Oakville Tigers at Seckman Jaguars
Oakville is the scrappy “Rocky” underdog of the Suburban League in 2022, but that won’t stop “Ivan Drago” from prevailing in Week 8. Number 14 Defeat All Man. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 44, OAKVILLE 17
Webster Groves Statesmen at Northwest Lions
To say this is Northwest’s best chance to avoid a winless season is like saying Team Canada’s “best chance” to lose a women’s hockey game is against Team USA. Webster Groves is playing its 7th regular-season game in 8 weekends thanks to the glorious Turkey Day Game being back on in the mid-2020s…but The Geek is afraid WGHS will lose a blow-out on Thanksgiving too. PREDICTION: NORTHWEST LIONS 1-7, WEBSTER GROVES 0-7
Parkway South Patriots at Fox Warriors
It’ll be tough sledding for the Red & White on a chilly Friday night, but Fox still has a solid shot to win thanks to a healed dressing room and Parkway South’s recent skid. PREDICTION: WARRIORS 27, PARKWAY SOUTH 20
St. Clair Bulldogs at Windsor Owls
The Gridiron Geek previews Windsor’s fine chance at an upset victory in this week’s Jefferson County Power Poll. PREDICTION: ST. CLAIR 35, ALBINO BIRDS 24
DeSoto Dragons at Cape Girardeau Central Tigers
DeSoto just has this way of showing-up vs a big-time Class 5 program and hanging around for a while, kind of like when Hawaii hosts BYU on Saturday night Sunday morning. TGG has no idea where such a prediction-angle comes from, but it’s an angle. PREDICTION: CAPE CENTRAL (FRUSTRATED OVER) 35, DESOTO (SECRETLY PLEASED WITH) 7
Grandview Eagles at St. Vincent Indians
Shades of 2020. PREDICTION: ST. VINCENT 52, (BANDAGED) EAGLES 6
St. Pius Lancers at Bayless Bronchos
Look for SPX to start taking some of those home-run shots downfield this Friday, since the Lancer defense should allow the squad plenty of breathing room to experiment vs an ailing host. PREDICTION: LANCERS 38, BAYLESS 0
St. Genevieve Dragons at Jefferson Blue Jays
Something has been out-of-whack with visiting QB Aiden Boyer’s offense for weeks running. It’s not so much the 7 points-scored against Valle U, but the 29 combined points-scored vs Potosi and Central High that’s worrisome. PREDICTION: ST. GENEVIEVE 40, BLUE JAYS 15