#1 – Hillsboro Hawks
Mississippi Magazine prides itself in standing out from the pack in local gridiron coverage, and yet some of our key differences can be pains in the neck For instance, Regional Radio’s legions are loud enough to drown coaches’ interviews after ballgames with rock and roll celebrations. You don’t really hear the station’s critics at all, except for whispers in the Friday night stands, because MyMoInfo doesn’t have a message board or a call-in show. By contrast, the Magazine’s readers can attest that a handful of basement-dwelling haters are often louder than our many awesome soft-spoken fans.
But the blog’s biggest opposite-ness from Regional Radio is that we’re conscious of a team’s typical ups-and-downs caused by scheduling. It doesn’t seem logical to be more excited about a 72-14 Valle University lead over Potosi than a 28 to 21 Valle U. deficit vs Seckman, but Regional Radio’s style is to treat every team and weekend as if each squad is starting from scratch. That’s darn refreshing – who needs to hear another smarmy announcer intone “and the CaaaAAAaaard-nals lead the DooOOOoood-gers!” as a perceived-to-be-inferior club leads the media’s pet team in a game? Simultaneously, though, you lose credibility if you disregard the pregame forecast when calling the action, as if you’re an FBS broadcaster saying “Ho-hum. App State leads Texas A&M.”
TGG has penned pamphlets, papers, and novellas on Crystal City and I-55 Conference pigskin over the last few weeks. But with CCHS headed to face a cupcake-of-all-cupcakes in Week 8, and small-campus conference honors decided, most of our small institutions will take a back seat this Friday. Hillsboro vs Cardinal Ritter, Festus at Farmington, and Seckman High School (since we whiffed on the powerful Jags in the Week 7 recap scroll) will now assume centerstage as 9-0 bids and District berths are decided.
The only exception is that Hillsboro vs Cardinal Ritter won’t be treated like a normal “feature” kickoff with the usual hype. We’ll compare the “tale of the tape” for Lucas Bahr vs Camden Mayes when Crystal City hosts Herky, and we’ll dish on whether Festus R-6 has a single, solitary 1-on-1 match-up it can count on when the Tigers face the 5-2 Jackson Indians in Week 9. Cardinal Ritter goes in a different category though, at least for a candid MSHSAA blog like this one. Comparing the 1-on-1 merits of Varsity Hawks vs Varsity Lions would be to go along with the illusions of a rigged kickoff.
Of course the Cardinal Ritter Lions will have 1-on-1 advantages against Hillsboro. Cardinal Ritter is designed to be superior at all positions. Private schools with All-Star rosters may be compared to each other, but graded on curves when playing anyone with an honest enrollment system. It’s similar to the disadvantage that free nations faced when competing with amateur Olympians against communist flag-bearing rosters of quasi-professionals in the 1900s. Cardinal Ritter’s administrators can claim that their school’s 40+ football players each enrolled because they’re as “fond of the academic opportunity” as the other 300-or-so students attending class there. Much like Valle University, though, there’s no further explanation why around 15% of Cardinal Ritter’s “academic” enrollees are always 6’2″ and soon to be NCAA athletes.
Cardinal Ritter’s (assembled) size and talent should allow it to outperform just about any Class 4 public-school team, including HHS, though Hillsboro still has a chance to out-scheme the Lions and win. Anything but a 30+ point win will be a disappointment for Cardinal Ritter in Week 8. But the Lions’ record-to-date also stands slightly superior to that of St. Mary’s after 7 games, meaning that if Hillsboro’s excellent team can threaten Cardinal Ritter in any way, shape, or form on Homecoming, we will know without a doubt that Leon Hall has itself a genuine state-championship hopeful in ’22.
#2 – Seckman Jaguars
Seckman did more than show it has grown as a 4th-quarter team on Friday night. Cole Ruble’s offense was more dynamic too, as the senior linchpin tossed 2 TD passes while rushing for 269 yards. Pattonville scored to answer Seckman’s success in the OT period, but couldn’t convert-for-2 after a bold SHS move to go up by 8. Rushing the passer is 1 defensive category that the Jags are excelling in, producing 9 massive sacks in Week 7’s victory.
Emotions are triumphant following Seckman’s win over a Class 5 powerhouse. However, there’s no avoiding the specter of SHS giving up a generous amount of TDs to strong teams on its schedule, even as the offense proves 2nd to none. Pattonville scored 2 touchdowns on Seckman’s likely postseason rival Lindbergh, and 7 TDs on the Jaguars. Valle U. is scheduled to lose (probably) to Show-Me Bowl favorite Cardinal Ritter later in 2022, in a game that the Warriors would be lucky to score 25+ points in. But the very same Valle U. team scored approximately 26 times in the 4th quarter vs SHS.
This analyst has always maintained that with a defense likely to surrender points, a team’s best shot is to have an “Aaron Rodgers” (or a Cameron Marchi) to pilot a high-octane, precise offense that’s expected to score on every turn. That not only puts pressure on opposing QBs, but it lends a weaker defense some breathing-room to seek fumbles, interceptions, and Red Zone stops without worrying how many 1st downs an opposing team happens to churn-out. An alternative, of course, is to manufacture a ball-control attack that’s not only expected to score, but to bleed 6-9 minutes off the clock. Georgia Tech defeated Georgia during the Paul Johnson years utilizing that formula. It’s also Seckman’s best chance in ’22.
Last season, TGG felt that Nick Baer’s team became too conservative vs Jackson, stubbornly repeating a series of ineffective plays up-the-middle ala Festus losing to Hillsboro in 2019. But in 2022, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for SHS to utilize its “stubborn” ground game more and more as the playoffs progress. It’ll be nice if CBC or Lindbergh thinks Ruble’s receivers are dangerous enough so as to warrant lots of coverage down the field. But the only way Seckman can prevail in Week 12 is by putting 4-5 absolutely epic long drives together and trusting the T/O ratio to fall in favor.
#3 – Festus Tigers
Frustrations over 2022’s FHS defense aside, the boys haven’t had too many chances to show they can defeat a well-matched opponent. Playing the St. Genevieve teams in Weeks 1-2 is like playing a 100% healthy, wide-open NFL team in early autumn, and the Varsity Tigers’ “Tim Tebow”-style offense is a handier weapon after the leaves turn. Such excuses end, however, when you consider the North County game – a contest in which the defense was playing well and had Buccaneers bailing-out until the lousy 2nd half came to pass.
Try #2 comes this Friday night against Farmington, a team without prohibitively-fast playmakers but which can still execute the heck out of a Flexbone playbook. If the Black & Gold doesn’t produce any better field position than it has been, the Black Knights will simply run 4 option plays in a row after every 1st down, and dare the wobbly Midmeadow Lane front-7 to make 4 straight tackles at the LOS.
Festus pigskin is clearly missing a statistician this year, but we’ll see if we can track RB Landon Bradshaw’s numbers during Friday’s contest, which will be broadcast by a confused-but-adorable Farmington student media department. Bradshaw, abiding by his annual tradition, suffered injury over the summer and is currently on the mend. But that means he’ll be a 100% healthy speed-bullet by Week 10 – as Chris Rock would say, that train’s never late!
#4 – Fox Warriors
Fox’s 2-5 record belies how the team has healed and set-about the future in classy style following the disaster of late ’21. Week 8 opponent Parkway South did NOT react well to getting blown-out by Arnold’s neighbors in Week 6 – in fact, QB Eddie Ahearn’s TD pass early in the 2nd quarter was all that kept Parkway West’s 45-7 clobbering of the Patriots last week from being a whitewash. Presumably, the swoon from PSHS makes Fox High into a Week 8 favorite on home turf, though the Warriors will be a decided underdog once again when facing the Ladue Rams on October 21st.
#5 – St. Pius Lancers
We won’t rank St. Pius below Herky because of St. Vincent’s margins-of-victory or disparate stat-lines vs each school. SPX defeated Herculaneum in the 2022 Penalty Bowl, and that’s that. However, HHS will have an opportunity to “Woody Wabbit” (whoop!) past the Lancers in November, if the Felines produce a winning postseason record vs larger schools than SPX sees in C1.
#6 – Herculaneum Blackcats
The Gridiron Geek apologies profusely to Dunklin R-5’s players and fan base for whiffing on the Blackcats’ 5th win in the Friday Night Scores & Analysis. There’s no particular reason it should have happened – Herky-over-Bayless was an I-55 Conference victory, and QB Jackson Dearing took a big step forward by throwing for 200+ yards and 4 TDs over an aggressive Bayless run-defense. Dearing wasn’t nearly as poised when SPX employed the same tactic.
If there’s any blame to shift (we’re not coaching the Van-Far Indians here) it lies on MyMoInfo, which has started using the Mississippi River + Joachim Creek delta (flowing like a brook following the old dam breaking) as a “border” north of which games don’t necessarily count on the Friday scoreboard. TGG believes that Herky-Bayless may have been added days after the fact, but can confirm that Arnold’s game was left off the ledger despite Fox’s heartening lopsided win over an STL school in Week 7. If the Warriors, Blackcats, or any north-of-the-delta team plays a school from Washington County or somewhere else south of the “border,” then we can expect to find the score on MyMoInfo. If not, then presumably the game’s responsibility-to-report is “turned over” to STLToday. Bummer, as TGG prefers using 1 site to check for 12 teams.
We think that Regional Radio will reverse the trend and give Herculaneum-at-Crystal City the full pregame, postgame, and internet treatment next Friday. KJFF’s preparing to broadcast the most-popular scrum of 2022 in the Tri-Cities, and its staff would probably threaten to walk across the road and go cat-fishing in Junior’s Pond instead of working on October 21st, if the parent company decided to do anything but feature CCHS vs HHS.
#7 – Crystal City Hornets
Last week, Hillsboro turned what should have been the prep-pigskin equivalent of a college “thrash for cash” game into a memorable appearance by scoring something like 5 TDs in 5 minutes. If CCHS can knock-off the needless holding infractions and put together 5+ explosive drives on Week 8 cupcake Missouri Military Academy right away, it could be a terrific way to get the Hornets’ frosh platoon its long-awaited full 24:00 of action and avoid 1st-string injuries.
“1st-string” anything is such a welcome addition to the Crystal City vocabulary, The Geek wouldn’t mind if a starter gets an elbow-scrape or gets benched for 3 plays, just for an excuse to write it again!
#8 – Jefferson Blue Jays
We haven’t looked at Jefferson’s C2D1 standings enough as of yet, and in spite of a truly powerful and deep field of teams, the Blue Jays’ timely winning streak may buy JHS some tasty opportunities in Weeks 10 and 11. Jefferson will host a playoff game if the ‘Jays split their final 2 contests of the regular season, and a 4th seed could allow for a revenge-date with Kelly High School in the Q-Finals.
#9 – Windsor Owls
If you can hang with North County, you can get into the top-9 on Mississippi Magazine’s rankings even if you fumbled-away a 100-to-7 outcome. The Albino Birds will get a cheap W over struggling Cuba in Week 9, but this Friday brings an intriguing chance for that upset readers were promised, almost as soon as the cyber-ink dried.
Senior Night opponent St. Clair looked like champs after whipping a fast, flashy Sullivan squad in midseason. But the Bulldogs’ ample supply of vine-grapes has turned sour since then, evidenced by Week 7’s loss to Hermann, a minnow that didn’t score on SHS. Windsor’s coaches can complain about Homecoming and Senior Night distractions once the rebuilding job in Imperial is complete. Currently, the raw emotion gives WHS a better shot to surprise.
T-10 – Northwest Lions and Grandview Eagles
Grandview’s ranking alongside a winless team comes with a big asterisk, that being that GHS already showed it was still a contender back when the starting-11 was healthy in September. Northwest or any old big-campus team could beat Austin Blankenship’s injured lineup handily now…but the Birds of Prey will keep coming back.
#12 – DeSoto Dragons
Does ex-skipper Chris Johnson have anything to do with how hard DeSoto’s schedule is right now? There’s no reason for a team struggling so badly to be forced to visit Cape Central. If 2022’s slate was negotiated 2-4 years in advance as usual, then DHS’s killer schedule represents CCJ’s final mistake of overconfidence, and a mistake that the Dragons are still paying for as of Week 8.