#1 – Hillsboro Hawks
Mad respect to Jupiter jazzing-up our horizon these days (or nights), but Tri-City fans aren’t well-versed in what happens when the stars align on a MSHSAA gridiron. It’s a whole ton of fun, and needs to happen a lot more often around here if possible. This season there’s only 1 set of postseason planets that are likely to line-up just right for Jeff-Co. But the exciting part is that it could happen to the very best team we’ve got.
You didn’t need the final scores of September to know that HHS has a nice draw in 2022 – merely this fall’s District Tournament fields that were released about 0.238 seconds before the season kicked-off. In simple terms, there’s a good chance that we’ll all be Hillsboro Hawks cheerleaders by Week 13 or Week 14. That’s nothing against any other local school’s pure power to win on Friday nights, but Class 4, District 1 is just about the only bracket one can find in which there’s not a “Division Killer” poised to knock-out any Jefferson County bid in round 3 of the playoffs.
The way that Seckman and Crystal City have out-played their competition so far, if MSHSAA gave out awards for raw excellence, the Jaguars and Hornets would already be right-in-line. But the CCHS Hornets (along with the St. Pius Lancers and Brentwood Eagles) will toil in a bracket next to Duchesne, whose Jesuit administrators somehow gamed a Class 1 berth out of 2022-23 despite “Nun” of the program’s C1 opposition holding a candle to the Pioneers. Seckman, as we’ve gone over a dozen times, woke up on Friday of Week 1 with a trip to Valle University and the news that Seckman High had been hosed out of a try-try-again bid against Class 5 public schools, and that Cole Ruble’s generational squad would probably have to face Class 6 private-school titan Christian Brothers College in a District Final, if the Jags even make it to Week 12. (Seckman High School promoting while Duchesne “relegates” in ’22 is why The Geek thinks that MSHSAA’s promotion-and-relegation rule should be for everybody.)
Herculaneum could potentially waltz through Week 10 and Week 11 in MSHSAA’s thinnest Class 3 District. Then the Blackcats would take on the Lutheran North Barnstormin’ All-Stars, and “Katie” won’t be able to “bar the door” fast enough. Jefferson is stuck in a District bracket with Lift for Life Motorized Scooter Company (and Football Factory). Fox ’22 won’t make it out of a group with Jackson HS headlining the proceedings.
Sure, the Hillsboro Hawks have a division-killer of their own in St. Mary’s, waiting to play District 1’s champion in a state quarterfinal or semi-final kickoff. But even on a private campus, a roster like the 2021 St. Mary’s Dragons doesn’t come along very often, and the COVID-19 era appears to have indefinitely scrambled the calculus for St. Louis private schools attempting to field an elite team in every single season. St. Mary’s is 4-1 this campaign with some Turbo Clock wins over Class 5, but has relied predominantly on a fabulous run-defense to stomp on opponents like Duchesne. Jaxin Patterson and Hillsboro’s horde of play-makers would have a merry time drawing-up a scheme to pierce St. Mary’s, and could actually take advantage of the fact that St. Mary’s defensive backs aren’t having to make any tackles, potentially leaving the unit shell-shocked upon seeing Patterson break through the front-7 at full speed with yards-after-contact on his mind. Recall that Georgia Southern – under current West Point skipper Jeff Monken – ran for about 300 yards on Alabama at the end of a season in which SEC opponents were stumped by the Tide. Hillsboro’s offense against the 2022 St. Mary’s rush defense is a perceived “mismatch” that could turn into a bonanza for the underdog.
Not to count Blue & White as a District winner before the chickens are counted. Hillsboro has yet to demonstrate that it can maintain fresh legs, health, and elite form after the leaves turn, instead of tiring and falling back as the Hawks have done in 3 out of the last 4 seasons. Upcoming easy road games against Windsor and DeSoto will provide some clues as to whether HC Bill Sucharski has decided to rest his team as much as possible before the stretch run arrives, or if he believes that Leon Hall’s identity of 110% intense effort from July through November will ultimately work in the postseason, if only the lineup is good enough and deep enough this time around.
#2 – Seckman Jaguars
We aren’t in the business of comparing #2 teams and #9 or #10 teams to each other very often, but this Friday, Seckman finds itself in a “Grandview in Week 5” scenario against fast-improving Parkway South, which has won 4 games in a row while feeding The Geek a plate of crow-steak for having called the Patriots a patsy in summer.
T3 – Fox Warriors and Festus Tigers
Bad defenses only get better once you give up on watching them. That creates a problem for The Geek, who feels obligated to attend FHS vs NCHS this Friday night after missing most of alma mater’s Independence Day Homecoming celebration 2 weeks ago. But we’ve established that fans are only supposed to squint their eyes when Festus High is wearing its camouflaged road-jerseys with the unreadable numbers on them. Perhaps TGG”s lowered-lids when North County has the ball will be compensated for by RB Jobe Smith’s widening pupils upon busting-through the Tiger D-line and seeing nothing but green pastures in front of him.
Fox has drawn a road trip to Poplar Bluff (called “Popular Bluff” on TGG’s old tongue-in-cheek Festus blog) in Week 6, and darned if the Mules don’t look like another slight favorite over the Warriors after avoiding Turbo Clock losses to Jackson and Park Hills Central over the last month. But this Friday’s hosts in Three Rivers are also 1-3 against Missouri opponents thanks to taking an upset loss vs Cape Central. If the Warriors are looking for a weekend on which to steal a road win and turn the season around, this could be just the right occasion.
#5 – St. Pius Lancers
SPX finally gets a breather with Friday’s trip to winless Cuba, which recently took one of the worst losses of any team in the region when falling to little Springfield Central 55-8. TGG has cautioned HC Dan Oliver not to blame the Lancers for an overbearing, amateur set of referees at the St. Pius-Herculaneum scrum last week. But the truth is, Oliver could yell “Rutabaga!” at the Hill Valley boys in pregame and still snag the W in Week 6.
#6 – Herculaneum Blackcats
The Geek apologizes for listing “Lutheran North” as Herculaneum’s likely District Final opponent last Sunday. It’s actually Cardinal Ritter that threatens to be a division-killer in Class 3, District 2, while Lutheran North’s ringers student-athletes are scheduled to obliterate the schools in C3D3.
Herculaneum boosters should become University City fans for the next few weeks, and cheer for Bayless to rehabilitate its big-play running game. Herky needs to play (and win) at least 1 reasonably competitive playoff game to make 2022’s likely run to Week 12 feel legitimate and worthwhile. Plus, if the #1 seed is at least tackled hard instead of jogging for TDs the entire time, then Cardinal Ritter could potentially suffer a spat of injuries, the one-and-only thing that would give Lucas Bahr’s team a chance to compete with the souped-up Lions.
#7 – Crystal City Hornets
TGG is worried that Week 6 will produce the hardest scrum in a 3-game stretch for Crystal City. As such, Mississippi Magazine is anxious to move on to looking at Russellville-vs-CCHS and making a prediction on the game. But there are so many notes, bulletins, and blurbs to report on the Hornets (including another gaffe by yours-truly) that it’s only fair to get everyone up to speed first.
Crystal City’s schedule is about to drive Mississippi Magazine into an asylum for pigskin blogs. Virtually none of the Hornets’ winning streak has been streamed live or broadcast on the radio, and administrators (not blaming the CCHS “front office” since almost every snafu has happened on road trips) from St. Louis and Herculaneum have allowed the wrong dates, times, and locations to be promoted for months-on-end.
Either that, or Herky head coach Blane Boss has been pleading with STLToday and other websites for months to change the wrong Week 9 listing, and yet it sits there unchanged. Herculaneum will not be hosting Crystal City when the teams’ rekindle their annual rivalry bout, but it will actually be the Varsity Hornets who’re hosting the October 21st kickoff at Sunken Place. That doesn’t make it any less of a great match-up, but TGG had felt intuitively that if HHS-CCHS played at Dunklin, the field by the old highway might draw a bigger crowd.
It’s time to reconsider, though, especially if Crystal City carries 7 or 8 wins into the Herky meeting. With the Blackcats poised to advance past Week 11 and the Hornets having their best season of the 21st century, we can imagine hordes of MSHSAA junkies hurriedly Google-ing the directions to CCHS prior to Senior Night. Sunken Place is a marvelous spot to watch a really tight battle, with stunning shots of the Moon rising over Bradley’s Farm right next to the scoreboard. Since there’s only 1 set of seats at Crystal, they’ll be packed “to the rafters” (if not the “Raftery”) in a way that they wouldn’t be if the kickoff were held at the 2-sided Dunklin facility. We might even get to hear a “WE GOT MORE!” duel between warring student-sections, the way that it used to go down at Festus-Herculaneum basketball games back in the day.
More of Crystal City’s season stats are in, and wow, some of the numbers are doozies. Nolan Eisenbeis is among the best defensive players in Jefferson County at the tender age of a sophomore, and added 10 tackles to his prodigious total of 41 on the season in the Hornets’ upset win over Gateway Tech. The Geek is also very skeptical of Eisenbeis’ listed “0” quarterback sacks on the year – from what TGG has witnessed personally, the speedy underclassman brings down some QBs so quickly after the play begins that statisticians chalk it up as a busted snap or a failed QB-run instead of a sack. Freshman A-back Cohen Compton’s “Herschel Walker”-like rushing stats have cooled off after a sizzling debut, but classmate Landen DeRousse has already shown to be an effective short-yardage back with 3 TDs on the year. Kanden Bolton has scored 6 TDs and numerous 2-point plays.
Remember, that’s the Varsity Hornet underclass we’re talking about. Overall, the team’s brand-new balance is striking, with 7 players having scored multiple touchdowns and 15+ kids with at least 4 solo tackles.
HC Dan Fox’s gambles don’t end with 4th-down calls and Class 4 teams dotting the ledger. Despite averaging over 220 pounds on the OL-DL depth chart, Fox has been using 5’9 and 175-pound freshman Jacob Loveless as an edge-rusher against blockers with almost twice Loveless’ wing span. So far, Loveless has been simply incredible in the novel role, notching 4 sacks to at-least-technically lead CCHS in a key category. We’re not yet prepared to say that Loveless is a suitable run-stopper, not with 14-year-old bone girth that’s inferior to some senior full-backs on Tri-City girls’ soccer teams. It won’t work against St. Pius or Grandview in the playoffs, because opponents will run “student-body” in Loveless’ direction, putting too much pressure Crystal City’s defenders on 1 side of the hashes. Sorry to be old-fashioned…he’s better off as a safety in November.
But like others of Fox’s decisions, throwing the athletic up-and-comer in at DE/LB is a calculated gamble. As the SEC’s “Little League Fever” recruiters learned the hard way back in the 2010s, there’s no way to gauge how a student-athlete will develop in adolescence. Loveless is obviously a special player or he wouldn’t have stayed healthy in the role this long, or be leading a team’s amazing frosh-platoon in sacks and tackles. If Loveless’ growth-spurt occurs at age 15-16 and he turns into a massive QB killer with years of experience, GREAT. Otherwise, what better way to train a future star DB or linebacker than having him butt-heads and fight monumentally larger linemen for a year? Crystal’s defense is good enough to “absorb” 1 smaller cog.
Which brings us to Russellville, a team of mostly “smaller cogs” who happen to be 5-0 and confident coming into a Friday Night Lights scrum in which the hosts have some built-in advantages. The only “advantage” Crystal City has tonight will be having the better and faster team…but that’s not always enough when there’s a ton of adversity at work. Crystal’s pigskin gang is either going to lose or grow a LOT in Week 6. Click on the Friday Night Predictions this afternoon for a preview and Mississippi Magazine’s exclusive forecast.
#8 – Northwest Lions
We’d like to be kinder to Northwest in the Power Poll, given that RB Chase Viehland has remained on the shelf for so long. But the Varsity Lions were confident enough in their new passing game to scrap the 2nd-most effective playbook in pigskin (with #1 being the “Graduated Flexbone” of the Baltimore Ravens and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers) to toss the egg around in 2022, and it’s not as if Cedar Hill lost 2000 pounds’ worth of blockers on the offensive line, a problem that the former coaching staff worked through with some success in 2021.
#9 – Jefferson Blue Jays
The Geek would love to “simulate” Jeff-Co games that never happen, using Virtual Sports technology to find out who might win if (for-instance) Jefferson played Northwest, helping to bring closure to any controversy that’s generated by the weekly Power Poll. But it’s hard to find a video game that’s designed to simulate Friday Night Lights football – fancy A.I. generators love to program “NFL” style moves into even the humblest FCS schools’ players in their database. In other words, it’s hard to create an accurately simulated High School game when programmers have “Jacob Loveless” trying Reggie White power moves against 300-pound blockers, while bruisers like Jacob Ottolini of Grandview have to watch their avatars try to tap-dance around little RBs.
T-10 Windsor Owls and Grandview Eagles
Windsor would certainly defeat Grandview if the teams played this weekend, as the Albino Birds scored 27 points against a respectable defense, while the Birds of Prey scored only 3 times against a Perryville team that debuted by allowing 3,476 touchdowns to Crystal City and St. Pius X’s disorganized reserve teams on Jamboree Week. However, TGG’s hunch that a low-media-exposure GHS program is taking-on more injury problems than have been widely reported is confirmed by the fact that only about a dozen players came away from Grandview’s disaster against Perryville with significant stat-lines on defense, and swift Austin Blankenship’s inability to get anything going on his rush attempts, in spite of Nash Moore distracting every opponent the Eagles play.
#12 – DeSoto Dragons
Fredericktown has successfully overhauled its gridiron effort since DeSoto lost to the Blackcats 28-7 last season. That means that the Dragons could play a whole lot better and still lose by a substantial score in Week 6.