St. Pius Lancers at Jefferson Blue Jays
Will the 2022 clash on Highway 61 live up to the Hill Valley Howitzer? If the question sounds too cliché, it’s for a reason.
Great football games just happen. There is no way to see them coming in advance. The Ice Bowl between Dallas and Green Bay was supposed to be a “Science Bowl” of innovative grounds-keeping, played on an electric blanket of artificially heated turf that would have warmed players’ legs as they stepped onto the field. The Silver Star might have scored 30+ points on the “electrified” Lambeau Field, and dared Vince Lombardi’s team to respond in kind, producing a familiar kind of ragged last quarter and an ordinary final score. Instead, the “electric blanket” broke down on Sunday morning, the steamed Kentucky Bluegrass froze into a minefield of sharp icicles, and 2 championship teams battled the elements, each other, and even the dread of hypothermia while fighting to a freeze-frame finish that is still talked about today.
For a prep-sports example, why not the Hill Valley Howitzer game itself? Neighborhood rivals are always a threat to produce drama, but there wasn’t much drama in the previous SPX-JHS scrum, a 33-0 playoff win for Jefferson High following a COVID-era regular season in which the teams didn’t play. Previously, the Lancers beat the Blue Jays 29-16 in a 2019 District battle which may seem like a tight game in hindsight, but heck, St. Pius X scored several times before Jefferson got on the board, and answered right away once a youthful Colby Ott tried to make a contest of it in the 4th frame. Warnings didn’t come hot and heavy that the ’21 scrum would make history, not even in the 3rd quarter of the game itself, when the Lancers led comfortably and punted the Blue Jays down to the goal-line.
Don’t worry – TGG isn’t here to kill today’s buzz. Great games might be unforecastable, but well-matched games are easy to spot. Jefferson and SPX are so well-matched on the gridiron that just about every edge enjoyed by either side comes with a caveat. There’s not even enough distance between the campuses for a Friday “bus ride” to take any toll at all, meaning that any “home-field advantage” relies on a neighborhood crowd’s noise level and the host athletes’ moxie alone. That’s always a fascinating set of circumstances.
For instance, Dabrein Moss will be the best athlete on the gridiron at Blue Jay Drive tonight, but Jefferson can hope to compensate with teamwork and sheer numbers of upperclassmen. JHS can put 2-to-3 sizable, serviceable linemen on the field for every 1 outstanding blocker at St. Pius X. On the flip side, though, 2022’s starting-5 OL from Hill Valley could pop a crack in just about any piñata, and the Lancers’ smaller contingent of linemen could conceivably out-play JHS’s entire 8-10 man rotation on this evening.
Jefferson’s obvious game plan will be to blanket Moss with DB coverage and force St. Pius to play small-ball with its other weapons, hoping for another low-scoring bout in which JHS’s superior roster numbers will hold sway by 9 PM. But without a sophisticated passing game to extend drives the way former Jefferson QB Drew Breeze was able to last year, we may be looking at a scenario such as Festus R-6 faced against Valle University, in which the deeper team with a potentially sky-high ceiling isn’t polished enough in September to defeat a contender already near the top of its form. PREDICTION: LANCERS 21, BLUE JAYS 12
North County Raiders at Hillsboro Hawks
TGG is encouraged that Hillsboro is pitching so many more short-passes for 1st downs, even though the Flexbone’s advantage in the passing game is supposed to be focused on scoring the home-run play. Successfully and confidently passing on 1st or 2nd down, not once the offense is clearly under duress and the defense expects a high-risk play, will be a key in Hillsboro’s quest to finally overcome North County in the postseason.
But as for tonight’s regular-season scrum, Mississippi Magazine doesn’t imagine quite as many fireworks as occurred in last season’s blow-out games between the conference rivals, or indeed like what happened in some of the HHS-NCHS battles played between 2017 and 2020. Over the past 2 seasons, North County skipper Brian Jones has relied on the talents of a rare Class 4 Iron Man star in Nolan Reed, making plays at QB and creating turnovers on defense to spoil the Hillsboro Hawks and Festus Tigers. In 2022, North County’s only winning game plan against the Hawks is to put RB Jobe Smith in position to dominate for 4 frames and take the game away from Hillsboro. Hillsboro, though, will have a pair of Division 1 ballplayers in the backfield as compared to North County’s single linchpin, putting more pressure on Bonne Terre’s ace than any student-athlete toiling for a hot, humming HHS offense has to deal with. PREDICTION: HAWKS 28, NORTH COUNTY 8
Herculaneum Blackcats at St. Vincent Indians
St. Vincent boasts a quality Week 2 win over Scott City, but was bothered by Perryville into the 3rd quarter last Friday. That makes The Gridiron Geek even more confident that Herky will improve on last season’s performance against St. Vinny’s, and perhaps even threaten to end the Indians’ winning streak in head-to-head action. But don’t listen to anyone who says tonight’s HHS-SV contest is “The I-55 Conference Championship Game.”
Herculaneum, or St. Vincent, could very well lift the I-55 hardware in 2022. But with 5 teams contending for the top rungs, there have already been a few “I-55 Championships” and will be at least a half-dozen more such occasions prior to the league being won. PREDICTION: ST. VINCENT 30, BLACKCATS 26
DeSoto Dragons at Festus Tigers
A.J. Ofodile’s gambit of scheduling 3 regular-season home games and 6 away-games in 2022 could be made with future considerations. The skipper may want to improve his unit’s experience-level in road games before getting paid-back with a bunch of nifty home-field advantages once the Class of 2024 is peaking next fall. Or, it could be a total accident that means nothing at all. PREDICTION: TIGERS 54, DRAGONS 7
Ritenour Huskies at Fox Warriors
Expect another hard-fought Fox loss to an excellent team tonight. That’s objectively 100x better than a mediocre W against a patsy, but if the syndrome keeps up for Arnold week-after-week, don’t expect Festus (or Valle U.) to be the only local schools making Varsity schedule-adjustments. PREDICTION: RITENOUR 33, WARRIORS 14
Seckman Jaguars at Mehlville Panthers
If Mehlville stops Seckman from “hitting 60” in Week 4, it will be because a neighborhood cop catches a Jaguar going fast on a state highway. PREDICTION: JAGUARS 62, MEHLVILLE 0
Northwest Lions at Lafayette Lancers
Once you get past the 2 or 3 massive prize-fights about to kick off, the Jefferson County ledger involves WAY too many lopsided pairings in Week 4. Like this one. PREDICTION: LAFAYETTE 51, LIONS 14
Grandview Eagles at St. Dominic Crusaders
Regional Radio spoke excitedly this week about Grandview potentially defeating St. Dominic on Friday. That’s putting unfair pressure on the GHS kids. St. Dominic has fought the Fox Warriors for 48:00 in the recent past and is more comparable to large-school contenders (or private-school titans like St. Francis of Borgia) than anyone in the Class 2 public ranks. The Birds of Prey must remember they’ll be gifted a similar edge next week such as the pure athletic advantages enjoyed by St. Dom in Week 4. PREDICTION: ST. DOMINIC 48, EAGLES 7
Crystal City Hornets at Confluence Prep Titans
Rarely does a Class 1 team enjoy a game-plan so simple against a “large school” as Crystal City can boast against Confluence. The Titans haven’t score a single point in 3 games against modest mid-tier competition, which means that CCHS is taking on a 2nd-straight team that may be dangerous in plus-territory but which cannot hope to drive 80 yards on a fast defense.
Confluence can drive half of the field and score, though, if Crystal City turns the ball over on downs after a 4th-and-26 conversion attempt. It’s up to the Hornets to avoid giving-up turnovers – and it’s up to HC Daniel Fox not to artificially create them. PREDICTION: HORNETS 42, CONFLUENCE 6