#1 – Hillsboro Hawks
Hillsboro’s upcoming foe North County has gone missing from The Gridiron Geek’s rankings since Mississippi Magazine chose to focus on posting the Jefferson County Power Poll in as many weeks of a season as possible. Nothing personal at all, Buccaneers – the Magazine’s readers have “voted” for the Power Poll by browsing it at 5x the rate of the Mississippi Conference Rankings. TGG’s patented MSHSAA District 1 “River Rankings” were a smash hit on MVP Sports Channel in the pre-pandemic 2010s, but they’re way down in-the-charts compared to the “platinum” Power Poll for local padawans.
NCHS would be a “moving target” if included in this year’s rankings, a team which would almost certainly have to begin the season ranked below Hillsboro, but whom would also be considered the “secret favorite” to take over #1 as things progressed into the playoff season. 2-year “trends” can be considered fluke-ish in many sports scenarios, but Friday Night Lights isn’t among them. North County’s victories over Hillsboro in the playoffs are as powerfully indicative of the Raiders’ cold-weather strength as HHS’s commanding Turbo Clock win from 2021 is illustrative of the Hawks’ dominance at room temperature. Bonne Terre stands as the more successful program in the 2020s so far, and is still favored to beat Hillsboro, but only when facing the Hawks in ideal circumstances at the end of a 12-week cycle. Until then, the senior-studded squad from Leon Hall could get so far out ahead of District 1 competition that the chips are stacked against NCHS in November. That would make the Varsity Hawks into the favorite to win District 1 whether the North County Raiders happened to be peaking again or not.
Most everyone will be focused on what the Hillsboro Hawks are doing at QB in Week 4, but The Geek is more encouraged by Bill Sucharski’s recent play-calling than any of the deck-chairs getting rearranged on the HHS depth chart. More on that angle to come in this week’s Friday Night Predictions.
#2 – Seckman Jaguars
Which will be the first public school to challenge Seckman High on the gridiron in 2022? It won’t be Week 4’s opposing Mehlville Panthers, an 0-3 effort that could be headed for the “Suburban League Mud” division if the conference ever takes TGG’s advice and promotes/relegates within the color-code.
It will be intriguing to see if the Fox Warriors can make hay against Cole Ruble’s rumblers for at least 2-3 quarters, given hordes of returning upperclassmen on both teams who played in 2021’s tight Jags-Warriors scrum. Pattonville and Oakville are the autumn rivals to keep eyes on. Pattonville is 2-1 after whipping Hazelwood West and has an impressive victory over Ritenour on the ledger already, while Oakville High School’s turnaround on the gridiron has been simply spectacular so far in ’22.
#3 – Festus Tigers
FHS should enjoy its best run-defense of the season against DeSoto, a team whose blocking effort looked like an upside-down Player Piano against a comparable defense from Sullivan in Week 2, and once again last weekend against another similar unit from NCHS. The “Lollipop Guild” will be tasked, however, with actually batting-down (or even picking-off) DeSoto’s many passing attempts on 3rd-and-long instead of simply tackling a wide receiver short of the 1st-down sticks. Hillsboro’s emerging weapons in 2022 include a short-passing attack and numerous deadly run-after-catch threats. Black & Gold’s defensive backs must improve as ball-hawks in a jiffy, or the capital-H “Hawks” will have brand new ways to ring-up a halftime lead in Week 5.
#4 – Fox Warriors
Fox can hope to out-last Seckman at home in Week 5 with the benefit of 48:00 battles to condition the Red & White, while the Jaguars coast on Friday after Friday. That’s about the only optimistic spin you can put on a schedule that included Lindbergh and Lafayette in the past 2 weeks, with Ritenour, SHS, Ladue, and Poplar Bluff just 4 of the opponents left to go.
#5 – Herculaneum Blackcats
Speaking of schedules, Herculaneum will enjoy the rare treat of having a September-October slate that begins with a few tough games, then becomes progressively easier and easier over a significant span of weekends.
St. Pius X is the Week 5 opponent that has everyone buzzing, but there’s no bigger bruise for the Blackcats than taking St. Vincent’s 49-0 drubbing in 2021, an outcome that will surely be improved-upon when the Felines visit St. Vinny’s this Friday. Grandview won’t be an easy out in Week 6, but at least Herky gets to play the burly Birds of Prey at home this time. After that, Herculaneum High will play Bayless and its “Ryan Tannehill”-style QB, who Herky’s fast-ball slinger Jackson Dearing will be happy to duel, while the Blackcat offensive backfield keeps up with opposing RB Mark Patton in aggregate. Finally, Herky will visit Perryville to round-out the I-55 calendar. Perryville’s 87-or-so kids on the ’22 roster won’t be able to stave-off a lopsided outcome unless MSHSAA lets 15 of the Pirates on the field at a time.
Then the Crystal City Hornets will visit the Herculaneum Blackcats for Senior Night like it’s 1965 again, with each team sporting at least 6-7 wins on the season. As was the case with last year’s Seckman vs Fox kickoff, TGG will advise fans to relax, keep the pressure off, and show each other good sportsmanship until WAIT ARE THERE TICKETS ALREADY!?!
#6 – Jefferson Blue Jays
Can you think of another I-55 team that could allow Herculaneum’s ’22 squad an early TD, wind up scoring just once, and still have the ‘Cats crunching their nails until the final frame? The Geek doesn’t believe St. Pius could do it, but that’s not what SPX has in mind as a formula to beat Herky (or Jefferson) anyway.
#7 – St. Pius Lancers
St. Pius X has the first quality W of a fresh season under its belt, and could move up as high as #5 in the Power Poll if Herculaneum falls to St. Vincent by another drastic margin while the Lancers win another fantastic Festus Bowl.
#8 – Northwest Lions
Cedar Hill won’t get the benefit of any soft September opponents despite representing a Class 5 division MSHSAA experts used to call “thin.” But we probably won’t have to rank Northwest below Jefferson County’s entire small-school contingent unless the Lions start losing to teams like Webster Groves, which has begun the year in typically flat fashion with the ball.
(T) #9 – Grandview Eagles
Those who think all Paul Johnson-inspired offenses “look alike” should get a viddy at Grandview and Crystal City’s playbooks in 2022, the former a battering ram and the latter a sleek machine of misdirection.
Grandview’s next 2 win-loss outcomes are fairly well stitched-in-stone against St. Dominic and lowly Perryville, which means the Eagles must set other goals such as avoiding a Turbo Clock on Friday, and scoring 6+ times on PHS.
(T) #9 – Crystal City Hornets
Crystal City’s luckiest night in a favorable schedule comes in Week 4, as the Varsity Hornets take on a “Class 4” team from Confluence which cannot internally recruit enough boys to mount a genuine large-school type of gridiron effort. Still, the task of staying “clean” (and healthy) with a no-episodes road victory over the host Titans, who are soft-pedaling their athletic program’s nickname to such an extent that The Geek suspects a new moniker could be in the works soon, will serve as a fine warm-up test for what could be a seminal moment for CCHS – taking on the Gateway Tech Jaguars with the Gateway Arch overhead and a bevy of STL-area reporters on hand.
#11 – Windsor Owls
Of the local padawans squinting at their final scores so far, the Albino Birds can be absolutely assured that Windsor is progressing at a better clip that its competition. After all, WHS fared better against the Festus Tigers than the Herculaneum Blackcats. Even if Festus and Herky should prove to be about equal commodities on the field this year – something that would thrill the townsfolk along Dunklin Drive while embarrasing Midmeadow Lane – FHS additionally held a numbers-edge over Windsor, and should have been capable of wearing down the Owls even more than the Blackcats did. Conversely, the 1-2 upstarts fought back and avoided a Turbo Clock.
WHS gets a lay-up over DuBourg this Friday before taking on the DeSoto Dragons in a contest the ‘Birds ought to be favored in.
#12 – DeSoto Dragons
Thanks to the Festus Tigers’ quirky schedule, DeSoto is among just 3 unlucky teams who must visit R-6 before the playoffs begin. When it rains, it pours. However, opposing teams from WHS and Fredericktown will provide the Dragons a measuring-stick for improvement later on in September.